Governments and central banks shouldn’t throw principles overboard in their efforts to fight the debt crisis, Jürgen Stark, a hawkish member of the European Central Bank’s Executive Board, warned Tuesday. “Red lines mustn’t be crossed, otherwise efforts to solve the crisis today create the basis for a new crisis tomorrow,” Mr. Stark said in a speech in Lucerne, Switzerland.
via ‘Excessive Liquidity’ Not the Solution for Central Banks – WSJ.com.
[Economist Hans-Werner Sinn, president of the Institute for Economic Research, in Munich]: What politicians refer to as a “rescue” will not actually save Greece. The Greeks won’t ever return to health under the euro. The country just isn’t competitive. Wages and prices are far too high, and the bailout plan will only freeze this situation in place. So it’s in Greece’s interest to leave the euro and reintroduce the drachma.
In the end this is Germany’s crisis to resolve, not China’s. Germany has benefited tremendously from the euro. Nearly all of its growth in the past decade can be explained by its rising trade surplus which, given monetary policy driven almost exclusively by the needs of slow-growing and consumption-repressed Germany, came at the expense of the rest of Europe.
If the Germans want to save Europe, they must reverse their polices and start running large trade deficits even if that comes with slower growth. If not, the euro will break apart and peripheral Europe will almost certainly default on its obligations to Germany. Either way Germany loses.
Less than two weeks after European leaders unveiled an agreement that was designed to bolster confidence in the region, the yield on Italy’s 10-year debt drew close to the 7% mark, a line in the sand of both practical and psychological importance to the market. Psychologically, 7% has become a beacon due to the fact that Greece, Portugal and Ireland each sought bailouts soon after their debt reached these levels. While analysts said it is too simplistic to say that Italy will be forced to ask for support if its 10-year debt yields 7%, they said the recent selloff is taking the country to the tipping point.
via Italy Nears Tipping Point as Bond Yields Spike – WSJ.com.
Dow Jones Shanghai Index is also hesitant, with no advance over the last 3 trading days. Reversal below 304 would indicate a test of primary support at 284. Breakout above the descending trendline — and resistance at 330 — is unlikely with 21-day Twiggs Money Flow (respect of the zero line from below) warning of selling pressure.
Dow Jones Japan Index is consolidating between 48 and 52. Breakout will signal future direction. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow is rising but there is no clear break as yet above the zero line. Monday’s candle indicates continued hesitancy.
Dow Jones South Korea Index also showed hesitancy Monday. Reversal below 400 would warn of another test of primary support at 350, while respect of 400 would indicate a primary advance to 450*. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow is declining but respect of the zero line would also signal a primary advance.
* Target calculation: 400 + ( 400 – 350 ) = 450
The ASX 200 index is testing its descending trendline. Recovery above 4350 would indicate a primary advance, while reversal below 4100 would test primary support at 3850. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure.
The longer term chart displays a bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, indicating long-term buying pressure. Breakout above 4350 would offer a weak advance but a correction that respects primary support would strengthen the signal.
* Target calculation: 3900 – ( 4400 – 3900 ) = 3400
The weekly chart of India’s Sensex shows the index testing resistance at 18000 — which coincides with the descending trendline. Upward breakout would indicate that the primary down-trend is weakening, while respect would test primary support at 16000. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow remains weak, despite earlier bullish divergence, and reversal below zero would warn of renewed selling pressure.
* Target calculation: 16 – ( 18 – 16 ) = 14
Singapore’s Straits Times Index is testing resistance at 2900. Respect would signal another test of primary support at 2500. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum continues to signal a primary down-trend.
* Target calculation: 2500 – ( 2900 – 2500 ) = 2100
Markets have been fed a steady diet of press releases out of Europe for the past few weeks but very little substance. This is a dangerous strategy as hopes are raised and reaction to any form of disappointment will be strong. No matter how it is dressed up, we are likely to witness a substantial default of Southern European borrowers, requiring recapitalization of French and Northern European banks. With public debt close to danger levels in many of these countries, there are no ready funds available for a bailout. Quantitative easing by the ECB has been touted as a possible solution, but aversion to this is so strong — particularly in Germany — that it would be political suicide for Angela Merkel to support this. So Europe stumbles onwards, searching for a disguised form of QE solution that is palatable to German voters.
Germany’s DAX is testing support at 5600. Breach would test 5000, while respect would signal a primary advance to 7200*. 13-week Twiggs Money Flow is relatively weak and reversal below zero would warn of renewed selling pressure.
* Target calculation: 6400 + ( 6400 – 5600 ) = 7200 OR 5700 + ( 5700 – 5000 ) = 6400
France’s CAC-40 index is testing medium-term support at 3000. Failure would test 2700, while respect (signaled by breakout above 3350) would signal a further advance. 13-week Twiggs Money Flow remains weak and reversal below zero would also warn of renewed selling pressure.
* Target calculation: 2700 – ( 3300 – 2700 ) = 2100
Italy’s FTSE MIB index is similarly testing support at 15000. Again, 13-week Twiggs Money Flow is weak and reversal below zero would warn of renewed selling pressure.
* Target calculation: 13 – ( 17 – 13 ) = 9
The FTSE 100 index is testing support at 5350. Failure would test primary support at 4800, while respect (signaled by breakout above 5700) would confirm a primary advance to 6100*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow favors an advance.
* Target calculation: 5400 + ( 5400 – 4800 ) = 6000
The TSX 60 is testing the band of resistance from 720 to 730 and the descending trendline. Upward breakout would indicate that the primary down-trend is weakening, while respect would warn of another test of primary support. The sharp rise on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure, but there is no sign yet of a reversal.
* Target calculation: 650 – ( 720 – 650 ) = 580
