Robert Kagan on Why the World Needs America – WSJ.com

Many foreign-policy experts see the present international order as the inevitable result of human progress, a combination of advancing science and technology, an increasingly global economy, strengthening international institutions, evolving “norms” of international behavior and the gradual but inevitable triumph of liberal democracy over other forms of government—forces of change that transcend the actions of men and nations.

……But international order is not an evolution; it is an imposition. It is the domination of one vision over others—in America’s case, the domination of free-market and democratic principles, together with an international system that supports them. The present order will last only as long as those who favor it and benefit from it retain the will and capacity to defend it.

via Robert Kagan on Why the World Needs America – WSJ.com.

Australia: ASX 200

The ASX 200 index has been hesitant since the breach of its descending trendline. A bottom may be forming, but 13-week Twiggs Money Flow reversal below zero warns us not to expect much upside any time soon. Respect of the rising (green) trendline would indicate another test of 4400, while penetration would mean another test of primary support at 4000*.

ASX 200 Index Weekly

A 2-hour chart shows the index headed for another test of resistance at 4310 on Monday. But momentum is falling and respect of 4310 would suggest a correction to 4000.

ASX 200 Index 2 Hour Candlesticks

Japan & South Korea

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index is testing resistance at 9000 but declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of long-term sellers. Breakout would offer a target of 10000, while reversal below 8000 would signal a decline to 7000.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 9000 + ( 9000 – 8000 ) = 10000

Seoul’s Composite Index broke through resistance but is now retracing to test the new support level at 1950. Respect of the rising trendline on the weekly chart, and respect of the zero line by 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, would both strengthen the bull signal. Target for the advance is 2150*.

Seoul Composite Index

* Target calculation: 1950 + ( 1950 – 1750 ) = 2150

Hong Kong & China

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index broke through resistance at 20000 to signal a primary up-trend but is likely to first retrace to test the new support level. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum crossed above zero to strengthen the bull signal — and respect of the rising trendline would confirm the new up-trend.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 20000 + ( 20000 – 18000 ) = 22000

The Shanghai Composite index broke out of its descending trend channel, indicating that the down-trend has weakened and a bottom is forming. A sharp rise on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure.  Expect resistance around the previous peak of 2500.

Shanghai Composite Index

India and Singapore bullish

India’s Sensex is testing resistance at 18000, while a sharply rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates strong (medium-term) buying support. Breakout would offer a target of 21000*.

BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 18000 + ( 18000 – 15000 ) = 21000

NSE/S&P Nifty Index is similarly testing resistance at 5400. Target for a breakout would be 6200*.

NSE/S&P Nifty Index

* Target calculation: 5400 + ( 5400 – 4600 ) = 6200

The Singapore Straits Times index has broken through resistance at 2900. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero strengthens the signal. Expect retracement to test the new support level, but target for the advance is 3200*.

Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 2900 + ( 2900 – 2600 ) = 3200

UK and Europe

The FTSE 100 is retracing to test the new support level at 5750. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure. Reversal below 5600 would warn of a bull trap, while respect would confirm the primary up-trend.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 5750 + ( 5750 – 5100 ) = 6400

Dow Jones Europe Index is consolidating below resistance at 260. Penetration of the descending trendline suggests that a bottom is forming. Breakout above 260 would signal a primary advance to 310*, while reversal below 240 and the rising trendline would warn of another test of primary support at 210.

Dow Jones Europe Index

* Target calculation: 260 + ( 260 – 210 ) = 310

Canada: TSX 60 retreats

Canada’s TSX 60 index retreated to test support at 700. Failure would warn of trend weakness, while recovery above 715 would confirm the primary up-trend.

TSX 60 Index

* Target calculation: 715 + ( 715 – 645 ) = 785

Dow and S&P 500 test key resistance

Dow Jones Industrial Average is testing resistance at 12800. A large bearish divergence would be completed if 13-week Twiggs Money Flow retreated below 10% — and would warn of a bull trap. Reversal below medium-term support at 12300 and the rising trendline would also warn of trend weakness, while respect of these levels would indicate a primary advance to 13400*.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 12300 + ( 12300 – 11200 ) = 13400

The S&P 500 displays similar weakness on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, but rising 63-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates trend strength. Breakout above 1370 would indicate an advance to 1450*.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1300 + ( 1300 – 1150 ) = 1450

The Nasdaq 100 made a strong breakout above 2400, indicating a primary up-trend. Expect a retracement to test the new support level (2400); respect would confirm the up-trend.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 – 2150 ) = 2650

Australia: Credit growth

Latest stats from the RBA show that the sharp contraction in business credit has slowed, but growth of personal credit (mainly mortgage finance) is at its lowest rate since the early 1990s and is trending downwards. Credit growth does not have to fall below zero for it to have a negative impact on the economy. A fall in the rate of credit expansion will slow the rate of economic growth.

Australian Credit Growth