What has become obvious in the last few years is that debt-driven growth is a flawed business model when financial markets no longer have an appetite for it.
S&P 500 approaches tipping point
The S&P 500 index broke downwards from its recent pennant, counter to normal bullish expectations, and is testing medium-term support at 1200. Failure of support would test primary support at 1100. Respect of support is less likely, but would suggest a rally to 1300. A 21-day Twiggs Money Flow cross below the zero line would indicate rising selling pressure.
The weekly chart better illustrates the breakout above 1200 followed by several tests of the new support level. Respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum would be a strong bear signal, warning of continuation of the primary down-trend — as would failure of support at 1200.
* Target calculation: 1100 – ( 1300 – 1100 ) = 900
Comparing to the 2008 weekly chart, there was a similar break below 1400 in January followed by several months of indecision before a false recovery above 1400 in May. Reversal below 1400 precipitated a major sell-off, with the index falling 50% over the next 9 months. If we look (above) at the current chart, there was a similar fall below 1250, several months of indecision before “recovery” above 1200/1250. Reversal below 1200 would provide a similar bear warning to 2008 — as would a 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero.
There is no guarantee that stocks will follow the same path as in 2008, but reversal below 1200 would greatly increase the probability of another primary decline — with a target of 900*.
The Anatomy of Global Economic Uncertainty – Mohamed A. El-Erian – Project Syndicate
Mohamed A. El-Erian, CEO of PIMCO, describes four key dynamics that will shape the future of the global economy:
- Many economies have built up excessive debt that is now causing market instability. They have three options for de-leveraging: default, like Greece; austerity, like the UK; or “financial repression” like the US — where “interest rates are forced down so that creditors, including those on modest fixed incomes, subsidize debtors”.
- Economic growth would reduce the ratio of debt to incomes: “Many countries, including Italy and Spain, must overcome structural barriers to competitiveness, growth, and job creation through multi-year reforms of labor markets, pensions, housing, and economic governance. Some, like the US, can combine structural reforms with short-term demand stimulus. A few, led by Germany, are reaping the benefits of years of steadfast (and underappreciated) reforms.”
- It is also important that the benefits of economic growth be shared across the entire community, reducing income inequality and related social instability.
- Political systems in Western democracies, designed to support the status quo, are ill-equipped to deal with these “structural and secular changes”. Failure to adjust is the greatest risk.
“Those on the receiving end of these four dynamics – the vast majority of us – need not be paralyzed by uncertainty and anxiety. Instead, we can use this simple framework to monitor developments, learn from them, and adapt. Yes, there will still be volatility, unusual strains, and historically odd outcomes. But, remember, a global paradigm shift implies a significant change in opportunities, and not just risks.”
via The Anatomy of Global Economic Uncertainty – Mohamed A. El-Erian – Project Syndicate.
Yen set for a major reversal
This is a 20-year (monthly) chart of the US dollar against the Japanese yen. The dollar has declined in a primary down-trend since early 2008. Long-term support at 80 failed to halt the fall and the greenback is now ranging between ¥75 and ¥80. The down-trend is in its fourth year and large bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum warns of a reaction. Penetration of the declining trendline would strengthen the signal and breakout above 80 would confirm, offering a long-term target of 100.
Brazilian Real and South African Rand
The Brazilian Real has fallen sharply against the greenback since the government took measures to stem the inflow of funds on capital account. Breach of medium-term support at $0.56 would indicate respect of the descending trendline and another test of primary support at $0.52. In the long-term, failure of primary support would warn of a fall to $0.40.
* Target calculation: 0.52 – ( 0.64 – 0.52 ) = 0.40
The South African Rand is weakening against both the US and Aussie dollar. The Aussie (another resources currency) shows an accelerating up-trend against the Rand. Breakout above R8.30 would signal an advance to R9.00*. Accelerating up-trends, however, inevitably lead to blow-offs — as in 2008.
* Target calculation: 7.50 + ( 7.50 – 6.00 ) = 9.00
South Africa: JSE threatens breakout
The JSE Overall Index completed a similar reversal to the Brazilian Bovespa, with a break above 31500. We can now see a similar ascending triangle below 33000. Upward breakout is likely and would signal a fresh advance to 37000*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow confirms buying pressure.
* Target calculation: 33 + ( 33 – 29 ) = 37
Brazil: Bovespa trend reversal
The Bovespa Index broke its descending trendline and resistance at 58000 to complete a classic Dow reversal. A higher trough on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates long-term buying support. Consolidation below 60000 has formed a bullish ascending triangle; upward breakout is likely and would confirm a target of 70000.
* Target calculation: 60 + ( 60 – 50 ) = 70
Banks Face Funding Stress – WSJ.com
LONDON—European banks, increasingly concerned about their ability to access funding, are devising complex and potentially risky new deals that enable them to continue borrowing from the European Central Bank…..
They also are a sign that struggling banks across Europe are preparing for a period of prolonged reliance on financial lifelines from the ECB. The Continent’s intensifying financial crisis has made it difficult for many banks to obtain funding from customary market sources.
Aussie and Loonie test support
The Aussie is testing support at parity against the greenback. The “iceberg” on 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates a primary down-trend. Failure of parity would test primary support at $0.94 and, in the long-term, breach of primary support would signal a decline to $0.80*.
* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.08 – 0.94 ) = 0.80
63-Day Twiggs Momentum indicates a stronger down-trend on Canada’s Loonie. Failure of support at $0.975 would test primary support at $0.94 and, in the long-term, breach of the $0.94 level would signal decline to $0.80*.
* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.01 – 0.94 ) = 0.87
The Aussie and Loonie normally move in sympathy with the CRB Commodities Index and a CRB break of its primary down-trend would warn of a reversal on the above two currencies.
Euro drags sterling lower
The euro broke support at $1.36 and is headed for a test of primary support at $1.32. Respect of zero by 63-day Twiggs Momentum signals a strong down-trend. Failure of support would signal a decline to $1.22*.
* Target calculation: 1.32 – ( 1.42 – 1.32 ) = 1.22
The pound is also retracing, to test primary support at $1.53. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum indicates a strong down-trend. Failure of support would signal a decline to $1.45*.
* Target calculation: 1.53 – ( 1.61 – 1.53 ) = 1.45