Dow Jones Industrial Average is already in a primary up-trend, having completed a higher trough late last year, and is now testing the 2011 high of 12800. Retracement to 12300 and the rising trendline is likely. Respect would confirm the new up-trend, but a large bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of failure and a cross below zero would indicate reversal to a primary down-trend.
The Nasdaq 100 displays a similar bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, warning of strong selling pressure. Retreat below 2400 would indicate a bull trap.
* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 – 2150 ) = 2650
The S&P 500 has not yet reached its 2011 highs but retreat of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero would warn of strong selling pressure and a primary trend reversal.
should we look reasons to sell into ?
$DOWI breach of 12300 and the rising trendline would signal a bull trap (sell signal).
I dont understand your analysis of divergence?
I have always been taught that divergence (bearish or bullish) is only relevant above or below the trigger line and that once the indicator crosses the zero line all bets are off. This means all peaks and troughs are are only relevant as a direction or an indication of expected price movement when above or below and a lower peak after a minus trough does not indicate divergence just the trend whatever it may be. In other words its an indicator or a warning to watch for a change of trend.
Perhaps the Twiggs Money Flow is different but I usually use divergence on the MACH. Could you elaborate please?
Not clear on what you mean. Here is a brief explanation of divergences as applied to TMF.
Colin,
Your wording for both Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 is not supported by the money flow charts. Am I missing something?
Please do a reload for the page. Divergence for Dow and S&P is from April 2011 to present, Nasdaq is from January 2011.
Expect some major bad news before going bearish.
hi colin, divergence is divergence. great charting. the only thing that is grabbing attention right now is the golden cross for s % p. its good to see your attention to additional info. thank you.
where have financial markets to go ? I think this bull trap because the international USD money scam continues where financial oligarchists buy every tangible asset to secure that they have the best start when the system resets after hyper inflation. Keep in mind that almost 75 % of the unknown money USD amount is in hand of foreign institutions not US owned. That sheds light as well of the amound of worthless paper that foreign nations have. The whole world has a big big problem because most foreign debt is not payable anymore because of the exponential growth of compound interest rates. The only thing they can do is to print more worthless green paper and to buy every good tangible asset they can get. Really don,t believe in miracles and for that reason i bet on the short side of the markets.
so what does one do? get out and wait or go short?