Category: Countries & Regions

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Asia: India recovering but China & Japan bearish

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing its upper trend channel at 2160. Follow-through would indicate a rally to 2250, while reversal would indicate a decline to 2040*. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum continues to signal a strong primary down-trend.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2100 – ( 2160 – 2100 ) = 2040

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, however, broke through resistance at 20000 (weekly chart), indicating an advance to 22000*.  Recovery of 63-Day Twiggs Momentum above zero would confirm — further strengthened if the descending trendline is penetrated.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 20 + ( 20 – 18 ) = 22

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index continues to warn of strong selling pressure — with a peak below zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. Failure of support at 8200 would signal another test of the 2008/2009 lows at 7000*. Breakout above 9000 is unlikely, but would signal an advance to 10000.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 8000 – ( 9000 – 8000 ) = 7000

India’s Sensex is testing resistance at 17500. Breakout is likely and would signal an advance to 18500. Completion of a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would indicate strong buying pressure.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 17.5 + ( 17.5 – 16.5 ) = 18.5

NSE Nifty shows a similar picture. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum rising to a new 2012 high would indicate a primary up-trend. Target for the breakout would be 5650*.

NSE Nifty Index

* Target calculation: 5350 + ( 5350 – 5050 ) = 5650

Singapore’s Straits Times Index broke through resistance at 3040. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests that the primary up-trend is intact. The calculated target is 3300* but the trend channel suggests resistance around 3200.

Singapore Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2700 ) = 3300

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Australia: ASX 200 rallies

The ASX 200 broke short-term resistance at 4290, indicating an advance to 4360. Retracement that respects support at 4290/4300 would confirm breakout from the trend channel and an advance to 4450. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. In the longer term, breakout above 4450 would signal a primary advance to the 2011 high at 4950.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4290 + ( 4290 – 4220 ) = 4360

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Poll: Do you trust High Frequency Trading to improve stock market pricing??

Please share this via Facebook or Twitter. The more responses we get the more pressure there is on regulators.

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Europe and Footsie recovering

Madrid General Index is testing resistance at 720. Breakout would complete a double bottom, offering a target of 840*.  Bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates a resurgence, but we are some way off a recovery above zero which would signal a primary up-trend.

Madrid General Index

Dow Jones Europe Index displays a strong bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum, indicating a (primary trend) reversal. Recovery above zero would strengthen the signal. Penetration of the descending trendline would suggest a test of resistance at 265.

Dow Jones Europe Index

The FTSE 100 is headed for a test  resistance at 6000. A trough at zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests buying pressure but expect strong resistance at 6000 because of the number of previous reversals at this level.

FTSE 100 Index

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Canada: TSX60 rising broadening wedge

The TSX 60 continues in a rising broadening wedge consolidation rather than a trend channel. Thomas Bulkowski observes that these formations end with a downward breakout 73 per cent of the time. That would threaten primary support at 640 and a decline to 600*. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero, however, indicates buying pressure. Respect of support at 640 would suggest a rally to 720. And breakout above 720 would offer a target of 800*.

TSX 60 Index

* Target calculation: 640 – ( 680 – 640 ) = 600

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US: S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 buying pressure

The S&P 500 is headed for a test of 1420 on the weekly chart. Breakout would signal an advance to 1570* — the 2007 high. The 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero indicates strong long-term buying pressure.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1420 + ( 1420 – 1270 ) = 1570

The Nasdaq 100 is headed for 2800*. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would confirm the primary up-trend. Breakout would offer a target of 3150*.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2800 + ( 2800 – 2450 ) = 3150

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Italian's Job: Premier Talks Tough in Bid to Save Euro – WSJ.com

Only the ECB has the necessary firepower to move the market. Senior German officials say the ECB’s help is what [Italian premier Mario] Monti has really been after all along. The Italian leader is convinced that the June 28 summit provided political cover for the ECB to take bold action, in the knowledge that euro-zone governments—including Germany—won’t oppose it.

“I have no doubt that the night before the disintegration of the euro, the ECB will do whatever is necessary to save it,” Mr. Monti says. “The question is: Do we need to get to the night before?”

via Italian’s Job: Premier Talks Tough in Bid to Save Euro – WSJ.com.

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Olympic highlights: Ye Shiwen wins gold in 400m IM

China’s 16 year-old Ye Shiwen swims an amazingly fast final 50 meters to beat Australia’s Alicia Coutts in the Women’s 400m Individual Medley.

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Electronic Trading Glitches Shake Market Confidence

Stock markets are impacted by distortions arising from high-frequency trading algorithms as this article by SUZANNE MCGEE discusses. We really need to consider the benefits versus the costs of HFT. Benefits of HFT liquidity are vastly overstated: what use is an umbrella if withdrawn at the first sign of rain? The costs are far more than the additional +/- $2.5 billion — profits from HFT trading — that institutional and private investors pay for stocks each year. By far the greatest cost is the damage done to market efficiency and to investor trust. An efficient market requires accurate communication of pricing information to market participants. My belief is that HFT distorts this function. And the only reason it is encouraged by exchanges is the huge profits they make from it.

Even if Knight’s [Knight Capital] losses are as large as $300 million, that’s a drop in the bucket when set beside the $862 billion that was temporarily wiped off the value of the U.S. stock market in 2010. High-frequency trading systems and the algorithms they use, these advocates argue, add liquidity to the market, which is a Good Thing.

Well, not really. Not it results in a major crisis of the kind we saw two years ago and a slew of smaller trading anomalies, day after day, week after week, month after month on top of that. Less than two weeks ago for instance, traders reported seeing a bizarre “sawtooth” pattern of trading in a handful of large-cap stocks, including Coca-Cola KO and Apple AAPL. Their prices swung higher and lower with an uncanny degree of synchronicity, zooming higher every hour on the half-hour, and lower once more thirty minutes later. More algorithms, traders muttered gloomily to one another.

via Electronic Trading Glitches Shake Market Confidence.

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Forex: Euro, Pound Sterling, Canadian Loonie, Australian Dollar, South African Rand and Japanese Yen

The Euro retreated from resistance at $1.24 to test support at $1.22. Downward breakout would test the 2010 low of $1.19. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum continues to indicate a strong down-trend.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.23 – ( 1.27 – 1.23 ) = 1.19

Pound Sterling broke short-term support at €1.27 against the Euro, warning of a correction to €1.25. Respect of support at €1.25, however, would suggest a healthy up-trend.

Pound Sterling/Euro

Canada’s Loonie is testing parity against the greenback. Breakout would advance to $1.02. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would indicate a primary up-trend, while a break above $1.02 would confirm.

Canadian Loonie/Aussie Dollar

The Aussie Dollar retreated from resistance at $1.05*. Reversal below $1.045 would test the rising trendline but penetration below $1.03 is unlikely. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests a primary up-trend.

Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 1.05 + ( 1.05 – 1.02 ) = 1.08

The Aussie Dollar respected support at R8.50 South African Rand before rallying to R8.75. Breakout is likely and would offer a target of R9.00*.

Aussie Dollar/South African Rand

* Target calculation: 8.75 + ( 8.75 – 8.50 ) = 9.00

The Australian Dollar is consolidating mid-range (between ¥72 and ¥90) against the Japanese Yen.  Breakout above ¥82.50 is likely and would test the upper range border, while reversal below ¥79.50 would test primary support. Recovery of 63-Day Twiggs Momentum above zero would strengthen the bull signal.

Aussie Dollar/Japanese Yen

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