Doug Bandow suggests:
Washington should begin contemplating, within earshot of Beijing, getting out of the way of its allies if the North continues to develop nuclear weapons. The message to China should be: if your client state continues its present course, you may face a nuclear-armed Japan. If that happens, blame your buddies in Pyongyang.
Read more at Time for U.S. to Disengage from North Korea Crisis | Doug Bandow | Cato Institute.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing resistance at its 2012 high of 2460 on the daily chart. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Breakout is likely and would signal a primary up-trend, but the index is overdue for a correction and a higher trough is required to confirm the reversal.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index already indicates a primary up-trend. Reversal below 23000, however, would warn of a correction.
India’s Sensex is testing its secondary rising trendline, while declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests selling pressure. Breach of the trendline would indicate a correction to test 18000/18200.
* Target calculation: 19 + ( 19 – 18 ) = 20
Singapore’s Straits Times Index is testing resistance at 3300. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum suggests continuation of the primary up-trend. Breakout would signal an advance to 3900*.
* Target calculation: 3300 + ( 3300 – 2700 ) = 3900
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index retreated from its 2010 high of 11500. Reversal below 11000 would suggest a correction to 10000. Respect of support would indicate a breakout above 11500 — and a fresh primary advance.
* Target calculation: 11000 + ( 11000 – 8000 ) = 14000
This long-term semi-log chart of the dollar against the yen puts the current rally into perspective. Expect resistance at ¥100. Breakout would signal reversal of the 40-year down-trend, while respect would indicate another test of ¥75.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index is headed for a test of resistance at 2500. Crossover of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero — and breach of the declining trendline — suggest a primary up-trend. Breakout above 2500 would strengthen the signal. But only a higher trough followed by a new high on the index chart would confirm.
India’s Sensex retreated below 20000, while declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure. Expect a correction to test support at 19000 but long-term buying pressure should ensure that the up-trend continues.
* Target calculation: 19 + ( 19 – 18 ) = 20
Singapore’s Straits Times Index is testing resistance at 3300. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum suggests continuation of the primary up-trend. Breakout would signal an advance to 3900*.
* Target calculation: 3300 + ( 3300 – 2700 ) = 3900
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index is headed for its 2010 high at 11500. A spike in 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates strong buying pressure. Breakout is likely and would suggest a primary advance to 14500*.
* Target calculation: 11000 + ( 11000 – 8000 ) = 14000
J. Michael Cole writes:
Ian Bremmer, founder and president of the geopolitical consulting firm Eurasia Group, told CNN this week that, “The danger of China-Japan conflict in 2013, for me, is the single biggest geopolitical tension that is underappreciated right now and one we’re going to have watch very carefully.”
Read more at Japan, China Scramble Military Jets in East China Sea.
Max Fisher describes why Japan has one of the lowest rates of firearm-related deaths in the world: 0.07 per per 100,000 population in one year, compared to 9.20 for the US.
To get a gun in Japan, first, you have to attend an all-day class and pass a written test, which are held only once per month. You also must take and pass a shooting range class. Then, head over to a hospital for a mental test and drug test (Japan is unusual in that potential gun owners must affirmatively prove their mental fitness), which you’ll file with the police. Finally, pass a rigorous background check for any criminal record or association with criminal or extremist groups, and you will be the proud new owner of your shotgun or air rifle. Just don’t forget to provide police with documentation on the specific location of the gun in your home, as well as the ammo, both of which must be locked and stored separately. And remember to have the police inspect the gun once per year and to re-take the class and exam every three years.
via A Land Without Guns: How Japan Has Virtually Eliminated Shooting Deaths – Max Fisher – The Atlantic.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing resistance at 2150. While a large correction — signaled by breakout above 2150 — is not a reliable reversal signal, it does indicate that a bottom is forming. Bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum also suggests a reversal. But only a higher trough followed by a new high on the index chart would confirm.
India’s Sensex is consolidating in a narrow range below 19500. Breakout is likely and would indicate an advance to 20000*. Oscillation of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicates long-term buying pressure, but bearish divergence warns of medium-term resistance. Reversal below 19000 is unlikely but would warn that the advance is losing momentum.
* Target calculation: 19 + ( 19 – 18 ) = 20
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index is advancing to resistance at 10000/10200*. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates buying pressure; look for a trough above zero to confirm.
* Target calculation: 9200 + ( 9200 – 8200 ) = 10200
We are frequently bombarded with labor productivity statistics such as output per hour worked and unit labor costs — normally accompanied by political hand-wringing exhorting us to improve productivity — but how accurate are these statistics and what do they mean?
First let’s look at GDP per capita. This should tell us how well we are doing compared to our neighbors. Norway and Singapore lead the pack, ahead of the US, while Australia is comfortably in the middle.
Measuring in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) adjusts for comparative price levels in different countries. Australia and Norway are most expensive, with relative price indices (PPP/exchange rate) of 1.61 and 1.58 respectively; while Singapore (0.83), Czech Republic (0.80) and South Korea (0.74) are cheapest.
Demographics such as an aging population or high birth rates, however, may distort per capita figures.
Norway also leads when it comes to GDP per hour worked — which should alert us that productivity of resource-rich economies such as Norway and Australia may be inflated by profits earned from extraction (mining, oil and gas). Ireland surprisingly beats the US, while Singapore slips to near bottom of the table when measured by hours worked.
Workers in Singapore and South Korea work far longer hours than most other OECD countries, while those in powerhouse Germany work even less than their counterparts in France.
But hours worked can also give a distorted view of employee welfare. Compare the 3 or 4 hours that workers in Sydney, London or New York may spend commuting to and from work each day to a Korean assembly worker who lives in a housing estate adjacent to the assembly plant. If we compare GDP (adjusted for PPP) to employed persons, rather than hours worked, we get a slightly different picture. The real surprise is again Ireland, ranking third behind Norway and the US — and well ahead of Australia, Germany and the UK.
What do we learn from this? It pays to live in a resource-rich country such as Norway (or Australia). It also pays to work clever — high-tech manufacturing like Germany and Ireland — rather than hard. Combine this with a low-tax jurisdiction — such as Singapore or Ireland — and you can become a world-beater.
Read more at BLS: International Comparisons of GDP per Capita and per Hour
Labor productivity
Labor productivity is measured as Output / Input
Where Output is the total of goods and services produced, normally measured by GDP.
And Input is the time, effort and skills of the workforce, measured either as:
- total hours worked by the workforce; or
- total number of employees.
Jack Rodman, president of Global Distressed Solutions LLC, spent 1999 to 2011 living in Japan and China, packaging and disposing of nonperforming loans and distressed assets. He writes on the problems facing China:
At the end of 1989, Japan’s bubble economy burst and its economic miracle came to an abrupt end. The Nikkei exchange fell from nearly 40,000 to its current 10,000 range. Over the course of 20 years, what appeared to be “unstoppable” economic growth proved to be anything but.
Today, China, in some ways, appears to be closer to following Japan than to sustaining its own economic miracle. China’s Shanghai Index (stocks) has fallen from a high of 7,000 in 2007 to a low of 2,000 for the past few years, and Chinese domestic investors have little confidence in their domestic stock market. The Japanese bubble, and its aftermath, was the result of a series of domestic financial and economic imbalances, many of which China faces today—to varying if not greater degrees….
Read more at China is now heading toward Japan-style economic paralysis if it doesnt change course – Quartz.
Mancur Olson’s 1998 obituary from The Economist sums up his beliefs as to why Germany and Japan made such startling recoveries after WWII while Britain, one of the victors, floundered.
The conclusion was striking. Narrow, self-serving groups had an inherent, though not insuperable, advantage over broad ones that worry about the well-being of society as a whole. How might that insight explain the fate of nations? In 1982, in “The Rise and Decline of Nations”, [Mancur Olson] offered an answer.
In any human society, he said, parochial cartels and lobbies tend to accumulate over time, until they begin to sap a country’s economic vitality. A war or some other catastrophe sweeps away the choking undergrowth of pressure groups. This had happened in Germany and Japan, but not in Britain, which, although physically damaged in the war, had retained many of its old institutions. Surely there was some less cataclysmic route to renewal? Yes, said Mr Olson, a nation’s people could beat back the armies of parochialism, but only if the danger were recognised and reforms embraced.
Read more at Mancur Olson | The Economist.
