By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: August 13, 2012
Stocks fell Monday as evidence piled up that the global economic slowdown was hurting Asia.
Japan’s economy grew in the second quarter at a 1.4 percent annual rate, slower than many analysts had expected. Last week, China released dismal figures on retail sales and exports in July. Traders were disappointed that Beijing failed to introduce stimulus measures over the weekend……
China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing its upper trend channel at 2160. Follow-through would indicate a rally to 2250, while reversal would indicate a decline to 2040*. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum continues to signal a strong primary down-trend.
* Target calculation: 2100 – ( 2160 – 2100 ) = 2040
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, however, broke through resistance at 20000 (weekly chart), indicating an advance to 22000*. Recovery of 63-Day Twiggs Momentum above zero would confirm — further strengthened if the descending trendline is penetrated.
* Target calculation: 20 + ( 20 – 18 ) = 22
Japan’s Nikkei 225 index continues to warn of strong selling pressure — with a peak below zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. Failure of support at 8200 would signal another test of the 2008/2009 lows at 7000*. Breakout above 9000 is unlikely, but would signal an advance to 10000.
* Target calculation: 8000 – ( 9000 – 8000 ) = 7000
India’s Sensex is testing resistance at 17500. Breakout is likely and would signal an advance to 18500. Completion of a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would indicate strong buying pressure.
* Target calculation: 17.5 + ( 17.5 – 16.5 ) = 18.5
NSE Nifty shows a similar picture. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum rising to a new 2012 high would indicate a primary up-trend. Target for the breakout would be 5650*.
* Target calculation: 5350 + ( 5350 – 5050 ) = 5650
Singapore’s Straits Times Index broke through resistance at 3040. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests that the primary up-trend is intact. The calculated target is 3300* but the trend channel suggests resistance around 3200.
* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2700 ) = 3300
There are conflicting reports about whether China is head for a hard or soft landing. China has the reserves and the capacity to implement further infrastructure programs if the economy cools too rapidly. And while its long-term goal is to deflate the speculative real estate bubble, the PBOC has shown itself prepared to kick that can down the road until export markets recover from the euro-zone crisis. The downside to manufacturing a soft landing, as we have already discovered post-GFC, is that the recovery takes longer. So a sharp recovery of Chinese markets is also unlikely.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index broke its 2011 low at 2150 on the weekly chart, indicating a decline to 1800*. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of rising selling pressure. Recovery above 2250 remains unlikely, but would suggest another attempt at 2500.
* Target calculation: 2150 – ( 2500 – 2150 ) = 1800
The Shenzhen Composite Index broke support at 880 to confirm the Shanghai signal. The peak below zero on 63-Day Twiggs Momentum also indicates a primary down-trend.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is more resilient, testing resistance at 20000 on the weekly chart. Breakout would indicate an advance to 22000* — strengthened if 63-Day Twiggs Momentum recovers above zero. Reversal below 19000 is less likely but would warn of a decline to 16000 — confirmed if support at 18000 is broken.
* Target calculation: 20 + ( 20 – 18 ) = 22
Japan’s Nikkei 225 index is headed for another test of resistance at 9000 on the weekly chart, but a peak below zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of strong selling pressure. Failure of support would signal another test of the 2008/2009 lows at 7000, while breakout above 9000 would signal an advance to 10000.
India’s Sensex found support around 17000 on the weekly chart and is headed for another attempt at 17500. Breakout is likely and would indicate an advance to 18500. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would strengthen the recovery signal.
Singapore’s Straits Times Index continues to test resistance at 3040. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests that the primary up-trend is intact, and breakout would signal an advance to 3300*. Narrow oscillation around zero, however would warn of a ranging market.
* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2700 ) = 3300
Japan’s Nikkei 225 index is headed for another test of long-term support at 8000/8200 on the monthly chart. The latest peak below zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of strong selling pressure. Failure of support would signal another test of the 2008/2009 lows at 7000.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing its 2011 low at 2150 on the weekly chart. Failure would indicate a decline to 1800*. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero continues to warn of a primary down-trend. Recovery above 2250 remains unlikely, but would suggest another rally to 2500.
* Target calculation: 2150 – ( 2500 – 2150 ) = 1800
India’s Sensex is retracing to test support on the weekly chart. Respect of 17000 would indicate a rally to 18500, but 63-day Twiggs Momentum oscillating in a narrow range around zero suggests a ranging market and another test of primary support at 15800/16000 remains as likely.
Singapore’s Straits Times Index is testing resistance at 3040. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests that the primary up-trend is intact, and breakout would signal an advance to 3300*, but a ranging market is more likely.
* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2700 ) = 3300
Japan’s Nikkei 225 index formed a peak below zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, indicating strong selling pressure. Failure of primary support at 8200 would signal another test of the 2008/2009 lows at 7000.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing its 2011 low of 2150 after breaking primary support at 2250. Breach of the new support level would indicate a decline to 1800*. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero would strengthen the bear signal. Recovery above 2250 is unlikely, but would suggest another rally to 2500.
* Target calculation: 2150 – ( 2500 – 2150 ) = 1800
India’s Sensex: Bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates reversal to a primary up-trend; a trough above the zero line would signal strong buying pressure. Respect of support at 17000 by the latest retracement would indicate a rally to 18500, while breakout above 18500 would confirm the primary up-trend.
* Target calculation: 18500 + ( 18500 – 16000 ) = 21000
Singapore’s Straits Times Index is testing resistance at 3030. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests that the primary up-trend is intact. Breakout above 3030 would signal a primary advance to 3300*.
* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2700 ) = 3300
Japan’s Nikkei 225 index is testing medium-term resistance at 9000/9100. Breakout would test 10000. Troughs below zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate weakness.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index is retracing to test resistance at 2250. Respect would confirm a primary down-trend — already signaled by 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero.
* Target calculation: 2250 – ( 2500 – 2250 ) = 2000
Wait for confirmation from a Shenzhen Composite index reversal below 880/900. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would strengthen the signal.
Singapore Straits Times Index broke through medium-term resistance at 2900, headed for a test of 3050. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests that the primary up-trend is intact.
* Target calculation: 3050 + ( 3050 – 2900 ) = 3200
India’s Sensex displays a healthy bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, indicating reversal to a primary up-trend. Breakout above 17000 suggests another test of 18500. And breach of 18500 would confirm the primary up-trend.
* Target calculation: 18500 + ( 18500 – 16000 ) = 21000
Dow Jones Japan Index retreated from resistance at 50 and is headed for a re-test of support at 46. Failure would signal a decline to 42*. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates selling pressure and a peak below zero would warn of a strong down-trend.
* Target calculation: 46 – ( 50 – 46 ) = 42
India’s Sensex penetrated its declining trendline but almost immediately encountered resistance at 17000. Bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates strong support and breakout above 17000 would suggest a primary advance — confirmed if the peak at 18500 is bested. Reversal below 15800, however, would warn of a decline to 15000*.
* Target calculation: 16000 – ( 17000 – 16000 ) = 15000
Singapore’s Straits Times Index is testing resistance at 2900. Respect of zero by 63-day Twiggs Momentum warns of continuation of the down-trend; breach of support at 2700 would confirm, offering a target of 2500*.
* Target calculation: 2700 – ( 2900 – 2700 ) = 2500
Dow Jones India 30 Titans broke resistance at 162 and is headed for a test of the descending trendline at 170. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests buying pressure and a test of the February high at 180; breakout would signal a primary up-trend.
* Target calculation: 180 + ( 180 – 150 ) = 210
Dow Jones Singapore Index rallied off support at 220 and is testing medium-term resistance at 230. Breakout would test the March high of 244. A “bounce” off zero by 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure.
* Target calculation: 245 + ( 245 – 220 ) = 270
India’s Sensex is testing medium-term resistance at 17000. Breakout would suggest another test of 18000, while reversal below 16000 would test primary support at 15000/15200.
A peak below zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum would strengthen the bear signal.
* Target calculation: 16 – ( 17 – 16 ) = 15
Singapore’s Straits Times Index found medium-term support at 2700. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. A rally that respects resistance at 2900 would strengthen the signal.
* Target calculation: 2700 – ( 2900 – 2700 ) = 2500
Dow Jones Hong Kong Index is headed for primary support at 360. Failure would confirm the primary down-trend signaled by 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero.
India’s Sensex is testing support at 16000/15800. Failure would mean another test of primary support at 15000/15200. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates selling pressure. Failure of primary support would offer a target of 12000*.
* Target calculation: 15 – ( 18 − 15 ) = 12
Dow Jones Singapore Index broke medium-term support at 222, indicating a test of primary support at 208/210. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates selling pressure. Failure of primary support would offer a target of 190*.
* Target calculation: 210 – ( 230 − 210 ) = 190
