India & Singapore Archives - Page 16 of 23

January 17, 2013

Stocks: The year ahead

A quick recap of the quarterly chart overview from December 2012:

The S&P 500 is headed for a test of its 2000/2007 high at 1550. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum and a lackluster economy suggest that resistance is unlikely to be broken. Breach of the rising trendline would indicate a test of support at 1100.

S&P 500 Index

Canada’s TSX Composite Index is gaining momentum. Follow-through above 13000 would indicate another test of 15000.

Apple

Germany’s DAX threatens a breakout above 8000. Follow-through above 8200 would confirm a strong primary advance.

DAX Index

The FTSE 100 broke resistance at 6000, suggesting an advance to 7000.

FTSE 100 Index

India’s Sensex is testing resistance at 21000. Rising momentum indicates breakout is likely, heralding a fresh primary advance.

BSE Sensex Index

Singapore’s Straits Times Index lags behind, but breakout above 3300 is likely and would indicate an advance to 3900.

Apple

The Shanghai Composite is headed for a re-test of long-term support at 1800/1750. Rising momentum suggests that a bottom will form at this level. Recovery above 2500 and/or the declining trendline would strengthen the signal.

Shanghai Composite Index

The ASX 200 is headed for a test of resistance at 5000, supported by rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum. Breakout would signal an advance to 6000, but weakness in China or the US may delay this for some time.

ASX 200 Index

December 24, 2012

Stocks: Outlook for 2013

Quarterly charts for the last two decades give a good idea of where stocks will be headed in 2013.

The S&P 500 is headed for a test of its 2000/2007 high at 1550. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates that resistance is unlikely to be broken. While this does not mean another fall to 750, it does suggest a strong correction.

S&P 500 Index

Apple Inc. [AAPL] is no longer leading the advance but testing primary support at 500. Failure of support would confirm the primary down-trend indicated by a 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero.

Apple

Germany’s DAX is also headed for a test of its 2000/2007 high, at 8200, but rising momentum indicates that breakout above resistance is likely.

DAX Index

The FTSE 100 is also advancing but is some way off its earlier high of 7000 and breakout appears unlikely.

FTSE 100 Index

India’s Sensex is more bullish and likely to break resistance at 21000.

BSE Sensex Index

The Shanghai Composite is headed in the opposite direction and likely to re-test long-term support at 1800/1750. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum (below zero) suggests that a bottom will form at this level.

Shanghai Composite Index

The ASX 200 is headed for a test of resistance at 5000, supported by rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum. Breakout would signal an advance to 6000, but weakness in China and the US may delay this for some time.

ASX 200 Index

December 17, 2012

Asia: China rally

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing resistance at 2150. While a large correction — signaled by breakout above 2150 — is not a reliable reversal signal, it does indicate that a bottom is forming. Bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum also suggests a reversal. But only a higher trough followed by a new high on the index chart would confirm.

Shanghai Composite Index

India’s Sensex is consolidating in a narrow range below 19500. Breakout is likely and would indicate an advance to 20000*. Oscillation of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicates long-term buying pressure, but bearish divergence warns of medium-term resistance. Reversal below 19000 is unlikely but would warn that the advance is losing momentum.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 19 + ( 19 – 18 ) = 20

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index is advancing to resistance at 10000/10200*. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates buying pressure; look for a trough above zero to confirm.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 9200 + ( 9200 – 8200 ) = 10200

December 4, 2012

Asia: India strengthens

India’s Sensex broke through 19000 to confirm an advance to 20000*. Oscillation of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicates long-term buying pressure.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 19 + ( 19 – 18 ) = 20

Singapore’s Straits Times Index is testing resistance at 3100. Breakout would indicate a test of the upper trend channel at 3260*. Respect would test the lower channel at 2900. The 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero suggests a primary advance.

Singapore Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 3100 + ( 3100 – 2940 ) = 3260

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index is retracing to test the new support level at 9200/9300. Respect would confirm an advance to 10200*. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum suggests a primary up-trend; look for a trough above zero to confirm.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 9200 + ( 9200 – 8200 ) = 10200

November 27, 2012

Asia: India and Japan strengthen

India’s Sensex rallied off support at 18300. Troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate long-term buying pressure. That and the mild correction suggest a strong primary up-trend. Breakout above 19000 would signal an advance to 20000*.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 19 + ( 19 – 18 ) = 20

Singapore’s Straits Times Index found support at 2930. Breakout above 3100 would indicate a test of the upper trend channel, while reversal below support would test the lower channel. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would suggest an advance; below zero would reflect a ranging market.

Singapore Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2700 ) = 3300

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index broke resistance at 9200/9300, signaling an advance to 10200*. Expect retracement to first test the new support level. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow — above zero — indicates medium-term buying pressure.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 9200 + ( 9200 – 8200 ) = 10200

South Korea’s Seoul Composite Index is ranging between 1760 and 2060. Expect another test of 2000. Breakout would indicate a primary up-trend, while respect would mean another test of support at 1860. Narrow oscillation of 63-day Twiggs Momentum around zero is typical of a ranging market.

Seoul Composite Index

November 21, 2012

Asia: India & China weaken

India’s Sensex broke support at 18500, warning of another correction. Troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate long-term buying pressure; so the correction is likely to be mild. Respect of 18000 would suggest a strong primary up-trend, with an initial target of 20000*.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 19 + ( 19 – 18 ) = 20

Singapore’s Straits Times Index broke support at 3000, warning of a correction. Expect support at the lower trend channel. Oscillation of 63-day Twiggs Momentum around zero would reflect a ranging market.

Singapore Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2700 ) = 3300

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing primary support at 2000. Breakout would offer a target of 1850*. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of selling pressure. Recovery above 2150 is unlikely but would complete a double bottom reversal.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2000 – ( 2150 – 2000 ) = 1850

The Hang Seng Index is undergoing a correction. Breach of 21000 would indicate a test of 20000 and the rising trendline. Falling 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure but the long-term picture remains bullish with, most likely, another trough above zero. Breakout above 22000 is unlikely at present but would signal an advance to 24000*.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 22 + ( 22 – 20 ) = 24

Japan’s Nikkei 225 rallied to test resistance at 9200/9300. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Breakout above 9300 would test 10200. Respect of resistance is unlikely but would suggest another test of primary support at 8200.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 9200 + ( 9200 – 8200 ) = 10200

South Korea’s Seoul Composite Index found support at 1860; recovery above 1900 would suggest another test of 2000. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would indicate long-term buying pressure. Recovery above 2000 would signal another primary advance.

Seoul Composite Index

November 13, 2012

Asia: India strong, China & Japan weaken

India’s Sensex continues to hold above 18500, suggesting a healthy up-trend. Rising troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate buying pressure. Breakout above 19000 would signal an advance to 21000*.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 18.5 + ( 18.5 – 16.0 ) = 21.0

Singapore’s Straits Times Index continues to test support at 3000. Breach of 2950 would test the lower trend channel, while breakout above 3100 would indicate an advance to 3300*. Oscillation of 63-day Twiggs Momentum around zero would reflect a ranging market.

Singapore Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2700 ) = 3300

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is headed for another test of medium-term support at 8450 after latest economic numbers warn of a contraction. Failure would test primary support at 8200. Oscillation of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow largely below zero indicates selling pressure. Breach of 8200 would signal a decline to 7200*.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 8200 – ( 9200 – 8200 ) = 7200

South Korea’s Seoul Composite Index is testing medium-term support at 1880 but rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow reflects buying pressure. Recovery above 1960 would test this year’s high at 2060.

Seoul Composite Index

China’s Dow Jones Shanghai Index is testing primary support at 250. Breakout would offer a target of 225*. Oscillation of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero reflects a primary down-trend.

Dow Jones Shanghai Index

* Target calculation: 250 – ( 275 – 250 ) = 225

Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicates strong buying pressure on the Hang Seng Index. Breakout above 22000 would signal an advance to 24000*. A test of the rising trendline is still a possibility, but a correction that respects support at 20000 would still reflect a healthy up-trend.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 22 + ( 22 – 20 ) = 24

November 8, 2012

Asia: India & Hong Kong strengthen

India’s Sensex respected support at 18500. Recovery above 19000 would confirm the primary advance to 21000*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates strong buying pressure. Breach of support is now unlikely, but would warn of a test of primary support at 16500.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 18.5 + ( 18.5 – 16.0 ) = 21.0

Singapore’s Straits Times Index continues an anemic up-trend, consolidating below 3100. Reversal below 3000 would test the lower edge of the trend channel. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero would suggest further consolidation, while a fall below -5% would indicate a primary down-trend.

Straits Times Index

China’s Shanghai Composite Index continues to test resistance at 2150 (and the descending trendline). Reversal below support at 2000 would signal a decline to 1800*. But rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Upward breakout would test 2250.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2150 – ( 2500 – 2150 ) = 1800

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index broke resistance at 22000, indicating a primary advance to 26000*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure, but wait for retracement to confirm the new support level.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 22000 + ( 22000 – 18000 ) = 26000

Japan’s Nikkei 225 continues to test resistance at 9200. Breakout would indicate a rally to 10200. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Respect of 9200, however, would indicate another test of primary support at 8500.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 9200 + ( 9200 – 8200 ) = 10200

November 3, 2012

Middle-income traps in Asian countries | FRBSF

Excerpt from a paper by Israel Malkin and Mark M. Spiegel at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. The two believe that China’s richest provinces, Beijing and Shanghai, are experiencing a slow-down in GDP growth (per capita) as they experience a classic middle-income trap, while China’s poorer provinces continue to experience high GDP growth rates.

What evidence exists for middle-income traps in a group of Asian economies that, like China, experienced episodes of rapid growth? We pool data for Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan from 1950 to 2009……. growth of these economies slowed markedly after they reached middle-income status.

Growth rates for these economies are highest just below the $10,000 per-capita-income level and then slow down rapidly as income increases. …..[the] economies grew on average at a 4.8% rate when per capita income reached $17,000, down from a high of 7.2% at the $7,800 level.

Interestingly, the middle-income trap appears to arise in Asia at lower income levels than has been found for broader groups of emerging-market economies. It may be that large Asian countries with relatively low prevailing wages cause the dynamic of the middle-income trap to shift. In Asia, countries may begin to become uncompetitive for certain labor-intensive activities at lower income levels than in other parts of the world……

via FRBSF Economic Letter: Is China Due for a Slowdown? (2012-31, 10/15/2012).

October 29, 2012

Asia: China & Japan weak, India & HK bullish

China’s Shanghai Composite Index respected resistance at 2150 and the descending trendline, indicating another down-swing. Breach of support at 2000 would confirm. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below its rising trendline would strengthen the bear signal.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2150 – ( 2500 – 2150 ) = 1800

Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index. Breakout above 22000 would indicate a primary advance with a long-term target of 26000*.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 22 + ( 22 – 18 ) = 26

India’s Sensex continues to test its new support level at 18500. Recovery above 19000 would confirm the primary up-trend, while breach of support at 18000 would warn of a test of primary support at 16500. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum favors a primary advance.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 18.5 + ( 18.5 – 16.0 ) = 21.0

Singapore’s Straits Times Index is in a weak up-trend, consolidating below 3100. Breach of support at 3000 would test the lower edge of the trend channel. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would suggest further consolidation, while a fall below -5% would indicate a primary down-trend.

Straits Times Index

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is testing resistance at 9200. Breakout would indicate a rally to 10200. Oscillation of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero, however, continues to indicate a down-trend. Respect of 9200 would indicate another test of primary support at 8500.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 9200 + ( 9200 – 8200 ) = 10200

South Korea’s Seoul Composite index is testing support at 1900. Breach would warn of a correction to primary support at 1750. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would strengthen the bear signal.

Seoul Composite Index