Looking at the data in yuan terms, exports grew just 9.4% year-to-year. Taking account of inflation, which has been unusually high this year, the real figure would be even lower.
via A Couple of Depressing Data Points From Digging Into China’s Trade Statistics. – Overheard – WSJ.
Dow Jones Shanghai Index is also hesitant, with no advance over the last 3 trading days. Reversal below 304 would indicate a test of primary support at 284. Breakout above the descending trendline — and resistance at 330 — is unlikely with 21-day Twiggs Money Flow (respect of the zero line from below) warning of selling pressure.
India’s Sensex index retraced to test the new support level at 17500. The primary trend remains downward but respect of support at 17500 would confirm a rally to the descending trendline. Bullish divergence followed by a cross to above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying support.
* Target calculation: 17 + ( 17 – 16 ) = 18
The Singapore Straits Times Index is testing the band of resistance at 2900/2950. Respect would indicate another test of primary support at 2500, while breakout would offer a target of 3300*. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero indicates that the index is still in a primary down-trend.
* Target calculation: 2900 +( 2900 – 2500 ) = 3300
Dow Jones Shanghai Index is advancing to resistance at 330 and the descending trendline. Respect would indicate another primary decline, with a target of 250*, while breakout would signal that a bottom is forming.
* Target calculation: 290 – ( 330 – 290 ) = 250
Take a look at the [Chinese] Leading Index’s sharp deterioration recently – there has been a clear and material deterioration in the leading index over the past couple of months. This suggests to us a substantial further fall in Chinese GDP. The last release of a week or so ago showed Chinese GDP growing at 9.1% against expectations of 9.1%. This leading index to us suggests that this growth rate will fall to 8% which is getting dangerously close to the “hard landing” territory.
via China’s leading indicators head south – macrobusiness.com.au | macrobusiness.com.au.
China already runs its own risk of massive losses on the currency reserves – now worth $3,200bn – it has accumulated. That was a public capital outflow aimed at supporting its trade surpluses. But, in its attempts at managing the currency relationship with the US, it is the latter that controls the central bank. China can huff and puff. But it must either buy the money the US creates, to preserve competitiveness, or stop doing so. If it buys, it throws good money after bad. If it stops buying, it imposes a shock on itself.
Economist Editor: 2012 is going to be pretty sluggish — with risk of “self-induced” stagnation
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Although there has been some noise about easing real estate curbs amid recent aggressive price cutting and subsequent protests, Li Daokui’s [academic advisor and member of the monetary policy committee of the People’s Bank of China] view is consistent with Premier Wen Jiabao’s view that curbs will be remain in place. He believes that economic growth will slow, and the growth model which relies on real estate development will end.
He added that inflation in China will probably fall from about 5.5% for this year to just 2.8% next year…..
via China will not ease up on realty – macrobusiness.com.au | macrobusiness.com.au.
HongKong’s Hang Seng Index broke its secondary descending trendline at 19000, indicating a test of the primary trendline at 21000/22000.
* Target calculation: 19 + ( 19 – 16 ) = 22
The Shanghai Composite Index recovered above support at 2350. Breakout above its secondary trendline would also test the primary trendline around 2900.
Dow Jones HongKong Index shows retracement to test short-term support on Monday. Respect of the rising trendline would signal trend strength, while failure of support at 360 would signal another decline.
On Friday, Chinese and European officials sought to play down expectations about when and how China may deploy its vast financial resources to help bail out indebted countries in Europe.
A Chinese Vice Finance Minister said China must first see the details of a new European bailout fund before making any commitments. “We of course must wait until its structure is extremely clear,” Zhu Guangyao told a press briefing. “And moreover, this investment must be decided on after serious, technical discussions.”
Mr. Regling told reporters he doesn’t expect “any precise outcome” from his visit to China and said “it’s too early to say what kind of amounts might be envisioned.”
…..Mr. Regling dismissed suggestions that European leaders will be forced to offer concessions to China in return for investment. “I am not here to discuss concessions,” he said, noting that China already buys EFSF bonds and gets no special considerations.
From the FT:
Chinese metals companies, lynchpins in the global economy, are warning that Beijing’s monetary tightening has gone too far, causing domestic customers to delay orders and raising the risk of payment default.
In one of the clearest signs yet of deteriorating sentiment, Baosteel, China’s second-largest steel producer, has told the Financial Times that its customers were pushing back scheduled deliveries “due to declining economic growth and tightening credit”.
via China spoils the party – macrobusiness.com.au | macrobusiness.com.au.
