China & HK Archives - Page 56 of 61

November 14, 2011

Asian markets

The Shanghai Composite Index reflects China’s controlled slow-down, edging lower with intermittent bear market rallies. The index is currently testing the descending (secondary) trendline at 2500. Penetration would offer a target of 2650 but would not indicate that the primary down-trend is over. Failure of support at 2300/2350 remains more likely and would offer a target of 2000.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2300 – ( 2600 – 2300 ) = 2000

HongKong’s Hang Seng Index is headed for a test of the (primary) descending trendline at 21000; breakout above 20000 would confirm. The primary trend remains downward, however, and respect of the trendline would suggest another test of 16000.

Hang Seng Index

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index is ranging between 8400 and 9100. Breakout would indicate future trend direction.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 8400 – ( 9000 – 8400 ) = 7800

South Korea’s Seoul Composite Index continues to reflect buying pressure on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. Follow-through above recent highs would indicate a strong bear rally, but the primary trend remains downward.

Seoul Composite Index

* Target calculation: 1900 + ( 1900 – 1800 ) = 2000

November 10, 2011

China’s inflation victory comes with high price – FT.com

In October, normally a peak month for home buying, real estate transactions plunged 25 per cent month on month, according to the statistics bureau.

via China’s inflation victory comes with high price – FT.com.

November 10, 2011

A Couple of Depressing Data Points From Digging Into China’s Trade Statistics. – Overheard – WSJ

Looking at the data in yuan terms, exports grew just 9.4% year-to-year. Taking account of inflation, which has been unusually high this year, the real figure would be even lower.

via A Couple of Depressing Data Points From Digging Into China’s Trade Statistics. – Overheard – WSJ.

November 7, 2011

Dow Jones Shanghai

Dow Jones Shanghai Index is also hesitant, with no advance over the last 3 trading days. Reversal below 304 would indicate a test of primary support at 284. Breakout above the descending trendline — and resistance at 330 — is unlikely with 21-day Twiggs Money Flow (respect of the zero line from below) warning of selling pressure.

Dow Jones Shanghai Index

November 3, 2011

India, Singapore and China

India’s Sensex index retraced to test the new support level at 17500. The primary trend remains downward but respect of support at 17500 would confirm a rally to the descending trendline. Bullish divergence followed by a cross to above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying support.

BSE SENSEX Index

* Target calculation: 17 + ( 17 – 16 ) = 18

The Singapore Straits Times Index is testing the band of resistance at 2900/2950. Respect would indicate another test of primary support at 2500, while breakout would offer a target of 3300*. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero indicates that the index is still in a primary down-trend.

* Target calculation: 2900 +( 2900 – 2500 ) = 3300

Dow Jones Shanghai Index is advancing to resistance at 330 and the descending trendline. Respect would indicate another primary decline, with a target of 250*, while breakout would signal that a bottom is forming.

DJ Shanghai Index

* Target calculation: 290 – ( 330 – 290 ) = 250

November 2, 2011

China’s leading indicators head south – macrobusiness.com.au

Take a look at the [Chinese] Leading Index’s sharp deterioration recently – there has been a clear and material deterioration in the leading index over the past couple of months. This suggests to us a substantial further fall in Chinese GDP. The last release of a week or so ago showed Chinese GDP growing at 9.1% against expectations of 9.1%. This leading index to us suggests that this growth rate will fall to 8% which is getting dangerously close to the “hard landing” territory.

via China’s leading indicators head south – macrobusiness.com.au | macrobusiness.com.au.

November 2, 2011

Creditors can huff but they need debtors – FT.com

China already runs its own risk of massive losses on the currency reserves – now worth $3,200bn – it has accumulated. That was a public capital outflow aimed at supporting its trade surpluses. But, in its attempts at managing the currency relationship with the US, it is the latter that controls the central bank. China can huff and puff. But it must either buy the money the US creates, to preserve competitiveness, or stop doing so. If it buys, it throws good money after bad. If it stops buying, it imposes a shock on itself.

via Creditors can huff but they need debtors – FT.com.

November 1, 2011

Economist Editor: 2012 is going to be pretty sluggish

Economist Editor: 2012 is going to be pretty sluggish — with risk of “self-induced” stagnation

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October 31, 2011

China will not ease up on realty – macrobusiness.com.au

Although there has been some noise about easing real estate curbs amid recent aggressive price cutting and subsequent protests, Li Daokui’s [academic advisor and member of the monetary policy committee of the People’s Bank of China] view is consistent with Premier Wen Jiabao’s view that curbs will be remain in place. He believes that economic growth will slow, and the growth model which relies on real estate development will end.

He added that inflation in China will probably fall from about 5.5% for this year to just 2.8% next year…..

via China will not ease up on realty – macrobusiness.com.au | macrobusiness.com.au.

October 31, 2011

Hong Kong and China

HongKong’s Hang Seng Index broke its secondary descending trendline at 19000, indicating a test of the primary trendline at 21000/22000.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 19 + ( 19 – 16 ) = 22

The Shanghai Composite Index recovered above support at 2350. Breakout above its secondary trendline would also test the primary trendline around 2900.

Shanghai Composite Index

Dow Jones HongKong Index shows retracement to test short-term support on Monday. Respect of the rising trendline would signal trend strength, while failure of support at 360 would signal another decline.

Dow Jones HongKong Index