China & HK Archives - Page 40 of 61

March 5, 2013

Asia: Japan advances while India & China retreat

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index broke its 2010 high of 11500, indicating continuation of the primary advance to 12000*. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Expect a correction to test the new support levels at 11000, possibly 10000.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 10000 + ( 10000 – 8000 ) = 12000

India’s Sensex broke support at 19000, warning of a correction to the primary trendline at 18000. The sharp fall on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, following a bearish divergence, confirms strong selling pressure.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 19 + ( 19 – 18 ) = 20

Singapore’s Straits Times Index retreated from resistance at 3300. Expect support at 3200; failure would warn of a correction. Another trough above zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum would suggest that the primary up-trend is intact. Breakout above 3300 would offer a target of the 2007 high at 3900*.

Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 3300 + ( 3300 – 2700 ) = 3900

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index correction is headed for a test of secondary support at 22000 but is still some way above the primary trendline — and support — at 21000. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would suggest a healthy primary up-trend.

* Target calculation: 22 + ( 22 – 18 ) = 26

China’s Shanghai Composite is also on the retreat, testing secondary support at 2250. Failure would indicate a down-swing to primary support at 1950/2000. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Momentum trough below zero would warn of another primary decline, with a long-term target of 1500*.
Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2000 – ( 2500 – 2000 ) = 1500

March 1, 2013

US & Asia: Contrasting economic activity

While Fedex broke through long-term resistance at $100, signaling rising activity in North America….
Fedex
The Harpex index of container shipping (charter) rates, primarily for movement of finished goods, is close to its 2009 low. There is no indication of a resurgence in exports between Asia and the West.
Harpex Container Index

February 25, 2013

Asia: India retreats while Japan and Singapore advance

India’s Sensex is headed for a test of support at 19000. Breach of the secondary trendline already warns of a correction to the primary trendline around 18000. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, followed by reversal below zero, indicates strong selling pressure.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 19 + ( 19 – 18 ) = 20

Singapore’s Straits Times Index is consolidating in a narrow range below 3300 — a bullish sign — and 21-day Twiggs Money Flow oscillating above zero indicates buying pressure. Breakout above 3300 would signal an advance to the 2007 high at 3900*. Reversal below 3250 is unlikely but would warn of a correction.

Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 3300 + ( 3300 – 2700 ) = 3900

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index is again testing its 2010 high of 11500. Reversal below 11000 would suggest a correction to 10000, while breakout would offer an initial target of 12000*.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 10000 + ( 10000 – 8000 ) = 12000

February 23, 2013

China: Hang Seng & Shanghai retreat

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index retreated below 23000. Breach of the rising trendline warns of a correction. Respect of support at 22000 would confirm a strong primary up-trend, while breach of 21000 — and the primary trendline — would warn of a reversal. Another 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would also confirm the primary up-trend. Recovery above 24000 is unlikely at present but would test the 2010 high of 25000.

Hang Seng Index

The Shanghai Composite Index respected primary resistance at 2500. Breach of the secondary trendline warns of a correction. A higher trough — above 2000 — would establish a solid foundation for a primary advance. As would a 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero.

Shanghai Composite Index

February 21, 2013

China Property Bubble by Gillem Tulloch [video]

Quick summary of the Chinese property bubble by Gillem Tulloch of Forensic Asia Limited.

February 18, 2013

Asia: India & Japan retreat

India’s Sensex displays a bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, warning selling pressure. Breach of the secondary trendline — and medium-term support at 19500 — would indicate a correction to 18000.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 19 + ( 19 – 18 ) = 20

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index is retreating from its 2010 high of 11500 on the monthly chart. Reversal below 11000 would suggest a correction to 10000. Respect of support, however, would indicate a fresh primary advance.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 11000 + ( 11000 – 8000 ) = 14000

China’s Shanghai Composite Index was closed last week for Chinese New Year.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index re-opened Thursday, finding support at 23000. Breakout above 24000 would test the 2010 high of 25000. Troughs high above the zero line on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate buying pressure. Reversal below 23000 is unlikely but would warn of a correction.

Shanghai Composite Index

February 11, 2013

OECD Leading Indicators Point to Divergence | WSJ.com

PAUL HANNON at WSJ writes:

The world’s largest economies are set to diverge in coming months with few signs that a broad-based recovery in growth is imminent, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s composite leading indicators.

The leading indicators for December, released Monday, point to a pickup in growth in the U.S., Japan, the U.K. and Brazil, but suggest growth will remain weak by historic standards in many other big nations [including China and India]……

February 11, 2013

Asia: China near 1 year high

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing resistance at its 2012 high of 2460 on the daily chart. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Breakout is likely and would signal a primary up-trend, but the index is overdue for a correction and a higher trough is required to confirm the reversal.

Shanghai Composite Index

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index already indicates a primary up-trend. Reversal below 23000, however, would warn of a correction.

Shanghai Composite Index

India’s Sensex is testing its secondary rising trendline, while declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests selling pressure. Breach of the trendline would indicate a correction to test 18000/18200.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 19 + ( 19 – 18 ) = 20

Singapore’s Straits Times Index is testing resistance at 3300. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum suggests continuation of the primary up-trend. Breakout would signal an advance to 3900*.

* Target calculation: 3300 + ( 3300 – 2700 ) = 3900

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index retreated from its 2010 high of 11500. Reversal below 11000 would suggest a correction to 10000. Respect of support would indicate a breakout above 11500 — and a fresh primary advance.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 11000 + ( 11000 – 8000 ) = 14000

February 5, 2013

Nana Rolland: North Korean Pawn in a Chinese Chess Game – WSJ.com

NANA ROLLAND at WSJ writes:

While it steps up its own provocative actions, including recurrent intrusions into Japanese waters and airspace around the disputed islands, China exhorts the U.S. to restrain its “troublemaking” Japanese friends. The implied linkage is clear: As Beijing tries to forestall North Korean brinksmanship, it expects Washington to do the same.

We have seen this gambit before. In 2003, when Beijing feared that Taiwanese president Chen Shui-bian might be inching toward independence, it called on Washington to bring him to heel. In return, it agreed to host multiparty negotiations to persuade Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear-weapons programs.

Beijing got the better end of that deal…..

February 5, 2013

Chinese Firms Shrug at Rising Debt | WSJ.com

DINNY MCMAHON And COLUM MURPHY at WSJ write:

Analysts at Standard Chartered PLC estimate that Chinese corporate debt was equivalent to 128% of gross domestic product by the end of 2012, up from 101% at the end of 2009. In a 2011 research paper, economists at the Bank for International Settlements found that when a country’s corporate debt exceeds 90%, it becomes a drag on growth.