S&P 500 and Europe cause ASX 200 to hesitate

Mildly bearish sentiment in the US and Europe is causing hesitancy on the ASX 200, while China continues to consolidate above long-term support.

The S&P 500 retreated below resistance at 1700, indicating a test of support at 1675. Longish tails on the last two candles are indicative of buying.  Recovery above 1700 would signal continuation of the advance to 1800*. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, however, reflects selling pressure and breach of 1675 is more likely, testing the stronger support level at 1650. Primary support is some way off at 1560.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1680 + ( 1680 – 1560 ) = 1800

Recovery of Dow Jones Europe Index above 290 indicates an advance to 310*. Follow-through above 295 strengthens the signal, but divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum suggests that a top may be forming. Reversal of TMO below zero would strengthen the warning.

Dow Jones Europe Index

* Target calculation: 290+ ( 290 – 270 ) = 310

China’s Shanghai Index holds steady above long-term support at 1950. Breakout above 2100 would suggest a rally to the downward trendline, but declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure and breach of support at 1950 would offer a target of 1750*.

Shanghai Index

* Target calculation: 1950 – ( 2150 – 1950 ) = 1750

Australia’s ASX 200 found support at 5000 after falling sharply on Wednesday. Recovery above 5100 would indicate another test of 5250. Oscillation of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow close to zero suggests hesitancy. Breach of 5000 is as likely, and would test the stronger support level of 4850, providing a more robust foundation for further advances.

ASX 200 Index

The Magical World Where McDonald’s Pays $15 an Hour? It’s Australia | The Atlantic

Jordan Weissmann compares wages paid to McDonalds workers in Australia and the US, raising four interesting points.

Firstly, McDonalds (or “Maccas” if we use its colloquial name in Australia) is profitable in both low-wage and high-wage countries:

The land down under is, of course, not the only high-wage country in the world where McDonald’s does lucrative business. The company actually earns more revenue out of Europe than it does from the United States. France, with its roughly $12.00 hourly minimum, has more than 1,200 locations. Australia has about 900.

They achieve this partly through higher prices, but also through adjusting their staff structure in Australia.

The country allows lower pay for teenagers, and the labor deal McDonald’s struck with its employees currently pays 16-year-olds roughly US$8-an-hour, not altogether different from what they’d make in the states. In an email, Greg Bamber, a professor at Australia’s Monash University who has studied labor relations in the country’s fast food industry, told me that as a result, McDonald’s relies heavily on young workers in Australia. It’s a specific quirk of the country’s wage system. But it goes to show that even in generally high-pay countries, restaurants try to save on labor where they can.

They also focus on increased productivity.

It stands to reason that in places like Europe and Australia, managers have found ways to get more mileage out of their staff as well. Or if not, they’ve at least managed to replace a few of them with computers. As Michael Schaefer, an analyst with Euromonitor International, told me, fast food franchises in Europe have been some of the earliest adopters of touchscreen kiosks that let customers order without a cashier. As always, the peril of making employees more expensive is that machines become cheaper in comparison.

That is one of the primary dangers of high minimum wages: automation is used to improve employee productivity and shrink the required workforce. Shrinking the national wage bill might seem like good business sense, but if we look at this on a macro scale, reduced incomes lead to reduced consumption and falling sales.

Finally, McDonald’s have attempted to add value to their product range, moving slightly more up-market in order to capture higher prices.

McDonald’s has also helped its bottom line abroad by experimenting with higher margin menu items while trying to court more affluent customers. Way back in 1993, for instance, Australia became home to the first McCafe coffee shops, which sell highly profitable espresso drinks. During the last decade, meanwhile, the company gave its European restaurants a designer make-over and began offering more localized menus meant to draw a higher spending crowd.

If we take McDonald’s as a microcosm of the entire economy, the trade-offs and benefits (or lack thereof) are evident. Funding wage hikes out of increased prices (for the same quality products) is futile. It adds no benefit: the increased wage is eroded by higher prices. Reduced wages for younger workers simply disadvantages older workers, excluding them from certain jobs. Increased productivity — higher sales per employee — on the other hand, can benefit the entire economy.

Improved training or increased automation may increase output, but run the risk of shrinking the jobs pool — unless new jobs created in training or manufacturing are sufficient to offset this. Product innovation, on the other hand, is an immediate win, raising sales while encouraging job growth in new support industries.

How do we encourage product innovation? Higher minimum wages is not the answer. Nor, on its own, is increased investment in research and education. What is needed is a focus on international competitiveness: reducing red tape, ensuring basic goods and services such as electricity, water, shipping and transport are competitively priced, lowering taxes and stabilizing exchange rates. That would encourage the establishment of new industry locally rather than exporting skills and know-how to foreign shores. We need a culture of innovation and entrepreneurship, rather than lip-service from politicians.

Read more at The Magical World Where McDonald's Pays $15 an Hour? It's Australia – Jordan Weissmann – The Atlantic.

Henry Thornton | The recession we did not need to have

Henry Thornton expresses his opinion on the grim state of the Australian economy:

The Reserve Bank is widely expected to cut interest rates today. The economy is facing such a grim future that one can support such an outcome. But no-one, not even the Reserve Bank, is facing the main problem facing Australia, which is double-digit cost disequilibrium – a severe lack of international competitiveness.

Just like Treasury’s failure to be ahead of the curve in forecasting, the Reserve Bank’s apparent failure to understand our most important economic problem is bad news for all Australians….

Read more at Henry Thornton – The recession we did not need to have.

Hat tip to Houses & Holes at Macrobusiness.com.au.

Forex: Euro tests resistance, Aussie breaks support

The Euro broke medium-term resistance at $1.32 and is testing the next level at $1.34. Breakout would indicate a primary advance, while respect of resistance (indicated by reversal below $1.32) would warn of another test of primary support at $1.27. Close oscillation of 13-week Twiggs Momentum around the zero line reflects hesitancy.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.34 + ( 1.34 – 1.28 ) = 1.40

Sterling is testing primary support at €1.135 against the euro. Long tails indicate buying pressure and recovery above €1.165 would suggest that a bottom is forming. Breakout above €1.19 would complete a double bottom with a target of €1.24.  Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero would strengthen the signal.

Sterling/Euro

* Target calculation: 1.19 + ( 1.19 – 1.14 ) = 1.24

Against the greenback, Sterling is testing medium-term resistance at $1.54. Last week’s long tail suggests buying pressure. Breakout would offer a target of $1.575. Respect is less likely, but would indicate another test of primary support at $1.485. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero would strengthen the bull signal.

Sterling/Euro

The greenback is oscillating around resistance at ¥100 against the Yen. Follow-through above ¥101.50 would suggest a new advance, while breakout above ¥104 would confirm, offering a target of ¥114*. Reversal below ¥98 remains as likely, however, and would warn of a test primary support at ¥94.

USD/JPY

* Target calculation: 104 + ( 104 – 94 ) = 114

Canada’s Loonie continues its primary down-trend against the greenback. Breach of medium-term support at $0.96 would test the primary level at $0.94/$0.945. Failure of primary support would offer a long-term target of $0.84*.

Canadian Loonie

* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.04 – 0.94 ) = 0.84

Against the Aussie Dollar, the Loonie remains in a strong up-trend .

Canadian Loonie

The Aussie Dollar also continues its primary down-trend against the greenback. Breach of medium-term support at $0.90 suggests a decline to $0.87*, but the long-term target is $0.80*.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculations: 0.90 – ( 0.93 – 0.90 ) = 0.87; 0.95 – ( 1.10 – 0.95 ) = 0.80

ASX 200 completes flag

The ASX 200 broke out of its narrow flag, indicating an advance to 5250. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow supports the signal. Reversal below 5000 is unlikely, but would test medium-term support at 4850. The ASX 200 Volatility Index ($XVI) remains below 15 — a bullish sign.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4650 ) = 5850

 

Asia retreats but ASX 200 soldiers on

Japan opened sharply lower on Monday, with Dow Jones Japan Index testing its long-term rising trendline at 75. Failure of support at 69 would signal a primary down-trend.

Dow Jones Japan Index

The Nikkei 225 is similarly testing its rising trendline. Declining peaks on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate selling pressure. Failure of support at 12500 would signal a primary down-trend. Recovery above 15000 is unlikely but would test 16000.

Nikkei 225 Index

China’s Shanghai Composite Index continues to test long-term support at 1950. Breakout would signal a primary decline, with a target of the 2008 low at 1660. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of selling pressure. Respect of 1950 is unlikely, but would indicate a rally to 2150.

Shanghai Composite Index

India’s Sensex found resistance at 20200, retreating toward its rising trendline. Penetration of the trendline would warn the trend is weakening, while failure of support at 18500 would signal a primary down-trend. Rising troughs on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, however, indicate moderate buying pressure. Respect of support at 19000 would suggest another primary advance; confirmed if resistance at 20200 is broken.

BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 20000 + ( 20000 – 18000 ) = 22000

The ASX 200 is consolidating in a narrow flag above the new support level at 5000. Upward breakout is likely and would signal a test of the May peak at 5250. Oscillation of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow around zero indicates hesitancy. Reversal below 4850 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 4650.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4650 ) = 5850

The ASX 200 Volatility Index below 15 also indicates low market risk — a bullish sign.
ASX Volatility Index

Forex: Euro strengthens, Loonie and Aussie weaken

The Euro continues to test medium-term resistance at $1.32. Respect of primary support at $1.27 is likely, following bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum. Breakout above $1.32 would strengthen the signal, while follow-through above $1.37 would confirm a fresh advance, offering a target of $1.50. Reversal below $1.27 is unlikely, but would warn of a primary down-trend.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.37 + ( 1.37 – 1.27 ) = 1.47

The greenback continues to test resistance at ¥100 against the Yen. Follow-through above ¥101.50 would suggest a new advance, while breakout above ¥104 would confirm, offering a target of ¥114*. Reversal below ¥98.50 is unlikely, but would warn of a test primary support at ¥94.

USD/JPY

* Target calculation: 104 + ( 104 – 94 ) = 114

Canada’s Loonie respected support at $0.94, suggesting a rally to test resistance at parity against the greenback. The monthly chart displays long-term selling pressure, however, and another test of primary support at $0.94 is likely. Breakout would warn offer a target of $0.84*. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum already suggests a primary down-trend.

Canadian Loonie

* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.04 – 0.94 ) = 0.84

A monthly chart of the Aussie Dollar displays a similar pattern against the greenback, with a broad top followed by breakout below primary support at $0.95. Support at $0.90 provides temporary respite, but the long-term target is $0.80*. Again, declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum indicates a primary down-trend.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.95 – ( 1.10 – 0.95 ) = 0.80

The Aussie/Kiwi cross has exceeded its target of $1.15*, steady decline on the weekly chart reflecting the impact of falling commodity prices. Breakout above the descending trendline would indicate a rally to test resistance at $1.21, but that seems a way off with the decline in 13-week Twiggs Momentum accelerating.

Aussie/Kiwi Dollar

* Target calculation: 1.21 – ( 1.27 – 1.21 ) = 1.15

ASX 200 finds resistance, China tests support

China’s Shanghai Composite Index continues to test long-term support at 1950. Breakout would signal a primary decline, with a target of the 2008 low at 1660. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of rising selling pressure. Respect of 1950 is unlikely, but would indicate a rally to 2150.

Shanghai Composite Index

Japan’s Nikkei 225 found resistance at 15000, but the primary trend is upward and retracement that respects the rising trendline would suggest another advance. Declining peaks on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow would indicate selling pressure.  Follow-through above 15000 would test the earlier high at 16000.

Nikkei 225 Index

India’s Sensex is testing resistance at 20200. Breakout would signal an advance to 22000*. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above its May peak indicates buying pressure. Respect of resistance at 20200 is unlikely, but would re-test the rising trendline.

BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 20000 + ( 20000 – 18000 ) = 22000

The ASX 200 is consolidating in a narrow band below resistance at 5000 — a bullish sign suggesting a test of the May peak at 5250. Highs of 5000 in 2010 and 2011 give this level additional significance and breakout would indicate an advance to 5850*. Follow-through above 5250 would confirm. Reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero merely indicates short-term selling pressure. Reversal below 4850 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 4650.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4650 ) = 5850

Forex: Euro rallies, Yen weakens, Aussie consolidates

The Euro continues to test medium-term resistance at $1.32 on the weekly chart. Breakout above $1.32 would suggest a primary advance, with a target of $1.40* — confirmed if resistance at $1.34 is broken. But oscillation of 63-day Twiggs Momentum around zero does not indicate a strong trend and respect of resistance remains as likely.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.34 + ( 1.34 – 1.28 ) = 1.40

The greenback recovered above long-term support at ¥100 against the Yen, indicating continuation of the advance, with a target of ¥114*. Follow-through above ¥101.50 would confirm. Reversal below ¥100 is unlikely, but would warn of a test primary support at ¥94; confirmed if support at ¥98.50 is broken.

USD/JPY

* Target calculation: 104 + ( 104 – 94 ) = 114

Canada’s Loonie broke resistance at $0.96, suggesting a rally to the descending trendline and resistance at $0.98 against the greenback. Reversal below $0.96, however, would warn of another test of support at $0.9450. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum declining while below zero reflects a healthy primary down-trend.

Canadian Loonie

The Aussie Dollar is consolidating below medium-term resistance at $0.93 against the greenback. Breakout would signal a rally to the primary trendline at $0.96. But the primary trend remains downward and respect of $0.93 would re-test $0.90. The long-term target remains at $0.80* against the greenback. The RBA favors a softer dollar to cushion the impact of falling commodity prices.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.95 – ( 1.10 – 0.95 ) = 0.80

The impact of the declining resources sector is reflected in the primary down-trend on the Aussie/New Zealand Dollar cross. AUDNZD is approaching its target of $1.15 and breakout above the descending trendline would indicate a rally to test resistance at $1.21. But respect of $1.21 would be likely, suggesting another downward leg on the Aussie/Kiwi cross.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 1.21 – ( 1.27 – 1.21 ) = 1.15