Australia & NZ Archives - Page 14 of 96

December 5, 2018

ASX 200 heads for a bear market

The ASX 200 dipped below primary support at 5650, signaling a primary down-trend. A Trend Index peak at the zero line warns of strong selling pressure. The market is still open, and a lot can happen by the close, but the prospect of a bear market is now close at hand. Expect retracement to test the new resistance level but respect would confirm a bear market, offering a target of 5000.

ASX 200

The two largest sectors are already in a primary down-trend.

ASX 300 Metals & Mining Index broke support at 3500, signaling a decline with a target of 3100.

ASX 300 Metals & Mining

The ASX 300 Banks Index, in a down-trend since 2015, is currently testing long-term support at 7000. Breach would offer a target of 5000.

ASX 300 Banks Index

I have been cautious on Australian stocks, especially banks, for a while, and hold 40% cash in the Australian Growth portfolio.

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

December 1, 2018

East to West

The S&P 500 put in a strong blue candle this week but one swallow doesn’t make a summer. Follow-through above 2800 would signal a test of 2950. Small bullish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow looks promising but is secondary in nature and may not alter the larger trend.

S&P 500

The Nasdaq 100 shows a similar W-shaped bottom but weaker divergence.

Nasdaq 100

Bellwether transport stock Fedex recovered above the former primary support level at 225 but still looks weak. Reversal below 220 would warn of another decline.

Fedex

Asia

The Shanghai Composite Index rally ran out of steam. Respect of 2700 warns of another decline, with a target of 2300.

Shanghai Composite Index

India’s Nifty is headed for a test of 11,000. Respect would be bearish, warning of another test of primary support at 10,000. Declining peaks on the Trend Index warn of long-term selling pressure.

NSX Nifty

Australia

The ASX 200 is testing primary support at 5650 following a down-turn on the mining index. Bullish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow has now rolled over, with penetration of the rising trendline. Breach of primary support would warn of a decline, with a target of 5000.

ASX 200

Europe

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx warns of a bear market. Breach of primary support at 365, and respect of the new resistance level on the subsequent retracement, warn of a decline to test 305/310.

DJ Euro Stoxx 600

The Footsie is testing support at 6900, while bearish divergence on the Trend Index warns of selling pressure. Breach would signal a decline, with a target between 5600 and 6000.

FTSE 100

Never cut a tree down in the wintertime. Never make a negative decision in the low time. Never make your most important decisions when you are in your worst moods. Wait. Be patient. The storm will pass. The spring will come.

~ Robert Schuller

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

November 29, 2018

ASX 200 miners tumble

ASX 300 Metals & Mining Index broke support at 3500, signaling a primary decline with a target of 3100. A bearish sign for the broad ASX 200 index.

ASX 300 Metals & Mining

The ASX 300 Banks Index is consolidating above primary support at 7000. Recovery above 7450 would indicate another bear rally but the primary trend is down and breach of 7000 would signal a decline with a long-term target of 5000.

ASX 300 Banks Index

The ASX 200 continues to display long tails and a bullish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow, signaling buying interest. Recovery above 5950 would suggest another advance but that is unlikely in the current climate. The primary trend is down and breach of primary support at 5650 would signal a decline with a target of 5000.

ASX 200

I have been cautious on Australian stocks, especially banks, for a while, and hold 40% cash in the Australian Growth portfolio.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

November 23, 2018November 23, 2018

ASX 200 bullish divergence

The ASX 300 Banks Index respected primary support at 7000 but only recovery above 7450 would indicate another bear rally. Declining peaks on the Trend Index continue to warn of selling pressure. Breach of 7000 would signal a primary decline with a long-term target of 5000.

ASX 300 Banks Index

ASX 300 Metals & Mining Index is again testing support at 3500. Breach would be a bearish sign for the broad ASX 200 index. Primary down-trends on the two biggest sectors would be likely to drag the overall index into a similar down-trend.

ASX 300 Metals & Mining

On the ASX 200, a long tail and bullish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow indicate strong support. Recovery above 5950 would suggest another advance but that is unlikely in the current climate. Breach of primary support at 5650 would signal a primary down-trend with a target of 5000.

ASX 200

I have been cautious on Australian stocks, especially banks, for a while, and hold 40% cash in the Australian Growth portfolio.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

November 22, 2018

Coles Group Limited (COL)

Coles commenced trading on the ASX on 21 November 2018, after the spin-off from Wesfarmers was approved by the Supreme Court of WA.

Trading is initially on a deferred settlement basis, with the demerger expected to be implemented on 28 November 2018.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

November 16, 2018November 16, 2018

Banks threaten ASX 200 fall

The ASX 300 Banks Index is testing primary support at 7000. Declining peaks on the Trend Index warn of selling pressure.

ASX 300 Banks Index

Breach of 7000 would signal another primary decline with a long-term target of 5000.

ASX 300 Banks Index

ASX 300 Metals & Mining Index continues to consolidate between 3500 and 4000. Breach of 3500 would be a bearish sign for the broad market ASX 200 index. Primary down-trends on its two biggest sectors would be likely to drag the overall index down.

ASX 300 Metals & Mining

On the ASX 200, Twiggs Money Flow is holding above zero, suggesting light volume on the declines. Breach of primary support at 5650, however, would confirm a primary down-trend.

ASX 200

Offering a target of 5000.

ASX 200

I have been cautious on Australian stocks, especially banks, for a while, and hold over 30% cash in the Australian Growth portfolio.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

November 9, 2018November 9, 2018

Bank & miners rally should lift ASX

The ASX 200 displays a cautious rally, with short candles reflecting an absence of buyer enthusiasm. But bullish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates longer-term confidence.

ASX 200 with Volume

The monthly chart shows similar rising troughs on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, reflecting buyer confidence. Recovery above 6000 would be bullish, suggesting another advance. Respect of resistance is less likely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 5650.

ASX 200

The ASX 300 Banks Index respected primary support at 7000, while bullish divergence on 13-week Trend Index indicates buying pressure. Expect a bear rally to test resistance at 8000. The primary trend, however, is down.

ASX 300 Banks Index

The ASX 300 Metals & Mining Index is consolidating above 3400 but rising iron ore prices are likely to lift the index. Recovery above 3800 would signal another advance.

ASX 300 Metals & Mining Index

The All Ordinaries Gold Index again respected resistance at 5500 and another test of primary support at 4500 is likely. Breach would warn of a primary down-trend with a target of 3500.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

I remain cautious on Australian banks and hold over 30% cash in the Australian Growth portfolio.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

November 3, 2018

ASX 200 support but bank decline continues

The ASX 200 continues to find support, with the latest large red candle and subsequent doji, testing primary support at 5650, accompanied by strong volume (indicated by red on the volume chart). Similar buying pressure (accumulation) is evident on 11th and 12th October.

ASX 200 with Volume

This is sometimes lost on the weekly chart but we can see Twiggs Money Flow troughs below have leveled out above the zero line, reflecting a mild bullish divergence (not as strong as rising Money Flow troughs but still a reflection of support). What is also evident on the daily chart (above) is how this week’s rally petered out, with shorter candles, awaiting further direction.

ASX 200

The ASX 300 Banks Index is testing primary support at 7000, the same level as its October 2009 peak. Declining peaks on the Trend Index warn of further weakness and breach of 7000 would offer a long-term target of 5000.

ASX 300 Banks Index

I have been cautious on Australian stocks, especially banks, for a while, and hold over 30% cash in the Australian Growth portfolio.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 27, 2018

ASX 200 at primary support

The ASX 200 is testing primary support at 5650. Declining Trend Index peaks warn of selling pressure and breach of 5650 would warn of a primary down-trend.

ASX 200

Banks are weighing on the index, with the ASX 300 Banks index testing support at 7000. Breach is likely and would offer a long-term target of 5000.

ASX 300 Banks Index

I have been cautious on Australian stocks, especially banks, for a while, and hold over 30% cash in the Australian Growth portfolio.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 20, 2018

ASX finds support

The ASX 200 found support around 5900, with a long tail indicating buying interest. Breakout of Twiggs Money Flow above the descending trendline would confirm. Breach of support at 5750 is unlikely but would warn of a primary down-trend.

ASX 200

Banks are weighing the index down, with the ASX 300 Banks index retracing to test resistance at its former primary support level of 7400. Respect would confirm another decline. Descending Trend Index peaks below zero warn of selling pressure.

ASX 300 Banks Index

I remain cautious on Australian stocks, especially banks, and hold over 30% cash in the Australian Growth portfolio.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.