Author: Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.
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ASX 200: Large caps strong while small caps decline

The ASX 200 continues to test support at 4980/5000 on the weekly chart. Breakout above 5100 would offer a medium-term target of 5500*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates strong buying pressure. Reversal below 4980 is unlikely but would warn of a correction.
ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5000 + ( 5000 – 4500 ) = 5500

ASX small-caps are still doing badly, with the ASX 50 [$XFL] out-performing the $XSO (ASX Small Ords) by a substantial margin. The opposite of what one would expect in a bull market: treat it as a caution. The current $XSO down-swing should test the lower channel at 2300, presenting a buy opportunity for swing traders.

ASX 200 Index

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Asia: Japan advances while India & China retreat

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index broke its 2010 high of 11500, indicating continuation of the primary advance to 12000*. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Expect a correction to test the new support levels at 11000, possibly 10000.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 10000 + ( 10000 – 8000 ) = 12000

India’s Sensex broke support at 19000, warning of a correction to the primary trendline at 18000. The sharp fall on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, following a bearish divergence, confirms strong selling pressure.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 19 + ( 19 – 18 ) = 20

Singapore’s Straits Times Index retreated from resistance at 3300. Expect support at 3200; failure would warn of a correction. Another trough above zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum would suggest that the primary up-trend is intact. Breakout above 3300 would offer a target of the 2007 high at 3900*.

Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 3300 + ( 3300 – 2700 ) = 3900

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index correction is headed for a test of secondary support at 22000 but is still some way above the primary trendline — and support — at 21000. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would suggest a healthy primary up-trend.
Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 22 + ( 22 – 18 ) = 26

China’s Shanghai Composite is also on the retreat, testing secondary support at 2250. Failure would indicate a down-swing to primary support at 1950/2000. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Momentum trough below zero would warn of another primary decline, with a long-term target of 1500*.
Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2000 – ( 2500 – 2000 ) = 1500

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Europe: DAX selling pressure continues

Germany’s DAX is consolidating between 7500 and 7900. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow still warns of selling pressure. Failure of 7500 would indicate a correction to test the rising trendline — around support at 7000.

DAX Index

* Target calculation: 7500 + ( 7500 – 7000 ) = 8000

The Italian MIB Index broke support at 16000. Following the earlier trendline break this warns of a primary reversal. Confirmation would come from breach of primary support at 15000. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would strengthen the signal. Respect of primary support would still not mean that trouble is over, as a lower peak followed by failure of primary support may follow.
FTSE MIB Index

The FTSE 100 displays a rising flag on its weekly chart, below resistance at 6400. Upward breakout would offer a target of 6800*. Downward breakout is unlikely but would signal a correction. Another 13-week Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would indicate strength in the primary up-trend.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 6400 + ( 6400 – 6000 ) = 6800

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Rate cuts: Short-term benefit, long-term pain

Shane Oliver at AMP recently tweeted:

Why rate cuts help household spending: 1/ Aust hholds have approx $750bn in deposits but $1700bn in debt….

…so a 1% rate cuts makes depositors $7.5bn worse off, but borrowers $17bn better off. The net gain for households is $9.5b !

Reason #2 as to why rate cuts help. Depositors r less likely to change spending on rate changes than borrowers (families with mortgage)

He is right that rate cuts stimulate household spending, but that is not the only consideration. Rate cuts also stimulate borrowing and expansion of the money supply — leading to asset bubbles and inflation. They further force savers/investors to take greater risks in the scramble for yield, leaving them exposed if the bubble collapses. If only we could let market forces of credit supply and demand determine the rate — and resist the urge to tinker.

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Canada: TSX buying pressure

Long tails on the TSX Composite weekly chart indicate medium-term buying pressure. Breakout above 12800 would signal a fresh advance, while follow-through above 12900 would confirm. Reversal below 12600 is unlikely but would warn of a correction. Rising troughs on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate long-term buying pressure and a primary advance. The long-term target would be 15000*.

TSX Composite Index

* Target calculation: 13000 + ( 13000 – 11000 ) = 15000

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S&P 500 and Nasdaq selling pressure

The S&P 500 is oscillating between 1485 and 1530. I avoided using the word “consolidating” because that implies a degree of calm. Far from it. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of medium-term selling pressure. Reversal below 1485 and the rising trendline would indicate a correction. Breakout above 1530 is less likely but would offer a target of 1575*.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1530 + ( 1530 – 1485 ) = 1575

On the monthly chart we can see that a correction below the secondary trendline would target primary support and the primary trendline between 1350 and 1400. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would indicate continuation of the up-trend, while retreat below zero would suggest a primary reversal.
S&P 500 Index
The VIX Volatility Index remains close to recent lows at 0.15. This does not provide much long-term reassurance: the VIX was at similar levels in May 2008. Breakout above the recent high at 0.20 would be a warning sign.
VIX Index
The Nasdaq 100 displays a bearish divergence on both 63-day Twiggs Momentum and long-term (13-week) Twiggs Money Flow. Reversal below the rising trendline would strengthen the signal. While breach of primary support at 2500 would signal a reversal.
Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2500 – ( 2900 – 2500 ) = 2100

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John Howard interview: Assault weapons are a public safety issue not a left/right issue [video]

John Howard, the conservative former prime minister of Australia, says that pro-gun advocates in the United States are wrong to oppose an assault weapons ban like the one he pushed for after a 1996 mass shooting because public safety is not a “liberal/conservative issue.”

Howard told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria that he felt “horror and shock” after a gunman killed 35 people in Tasmania on April 28, 1996.

Many within his own party opposed the newly-elected PM when he proposed a ban on private ownership of assault weapons in Australia. But statistics since then have proved him right. According to CNN, in the 18 years leading up to 1996 there were 13 gun massacres in Australia; since 1996 when the law was passed there has not been a single incident.

Published on 17 Feb 2013

P.S. Gun ownership is an emotive issue in the US. We encourage open considered debate but believe that nothing is gained by people “shouting” at each other. Any emotive posts of that ilk will end up in the trash can.

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Something has to be done about income taxes

Years ago I worked in structured finance for an investment bank, creating tax-efficient structures for large corporations. That left me with the lasting impression that income taxes are inefficient — both in terms of equity and collection — and should be levied at low flat rates if they cannot be avoided altogether.

Any tax acts as a disincentive. The impact of flat taxes at low rates is mild. We don’t often think of GST/VAT as deterring consumption. But income tax, with progressive tax rates, acts as a massive disincentive on production. If there was no income tax, we would all be encouraged to work harder. Doctors might not play golf on Wednesdays, but the average worker would also seek more income because they aren’t giving half of it back in taxes. This would give a significant boost to GDP. Interest would also not be taxed, creating an incentive to increase savings.

The problem with all taxes is they tend to increase over time. Flat rate taxes such as GST are the exception because of political fall-out from a rate increase. It is too easy with progressive taxes, like income tax, for politicians to introduce increases by stealth or simply to allow inflation to push taxpayers into higher tax brackets over time. Flat taxes allow politicians less wiggle room as any tax increases are evident to all.

Substituting a combination of land taxes, resource taxes and sales taxes (GST/VAT) for income taxes, or even just reducing income taxes to a low flat rate, would boost both economic growth and savings while making politicians more accountable to their electorate.

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In support of land taxes

Thanks to Alex Fletcher who submitted this as a comment:

From a purist point of view I believe Geolibertarianism is the moral philosophy that should guide taxation:-

“Geolibertarians are advocates of geoism, which is the position that all natural resources – most importantly land – are common assets to which all individuals have an equal right to access; therefore, individuals must pay rent to the community if they claim land as their private property. Rent need not be paid for the mere use of land, but only for the right to exclude others from that land, and for the protection of one’s title by government. They simultaneously agree with the libertarian position that each individual has an exclusive right to the fruits of his or her labor as their private property, as opposed to this product being owned collectively by society or the community, and that ‘one’s labor, wages, and the products of labor’ should not be taxed.”

In reality though it is about what is practically possible. The Henry review [in Australia] aimed for four bases – personal income, business income, consumption and economic rents of natural resources and land. At present land tax has a much smaller role than the other three.

Any change to increase the proportion of total taxation from LVT can only be achieved slowly and with much opposition. The ACT proposal to change existing property taxes and stamp duty to an annual LVT is the best start one can hope for. The plan is such that if a landowner really wants to keep stamp duty instead of an annual fee they can virtually do so. There was an article in The Drum about it.

I believe GST is more efficient than income tax and in that context may be better. However if, as geonomics asserts, the main contributor to unemployment is that land is priced out of reach, increasing the GST and broadening the base without a broad-based LVT as well, would not abolish unemployment and so would increase hardship for the very poor.

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