Stocks rallied, with the S&P 500 recovering above thew former primary support level at 4300. Follow-through above 4400 would be a short-term bull signal.
Markets were lifted by reports of progress on a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement — although that is unlikely to affect sanctions on Russia this year — while the Fed went ahead with “the most publicized quarter point rate hike in world history” according to Julian Brigden at MI2 Partners.
FOMC
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday approved its first interest rate increase in more than three years, an incremental salvo to address spiraling inflation without torpedoing economic growth. After keeping its benchmark interest rate anchored near zero since the beginning of the Covid pandemic, the policymaking Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) said it will raise rates by a quarter percentage point, or 25 basis points….. Fed officials indicated the rate increases will come with slower economic growth this year. Along with the rate hikes, the committee also penciled in increases at each of the six remaining meetings this year, pointing to a consensus funds rate of 1.9% by year’s end. (CNBC)
Rate hikes are likely to continue at every meeting until the economy slows or the Fed breaks something — which is quite likely. To say the plumbing of the global financial system is complicated would be an understatement and we are already seeing reports of yield curves misbehaving (a negative yield curve warns of recession).
Federal Reserve policymakers have made “excellent progress” on their plan for reducing the central bank’s nearly $9 trillion balance sheet, and could finalize details at their next policy meeting in May, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday. Overall, he said, the plan will look “familiar” to when the Fed last reduced bond holdings between 2017 and 2019, “but it will be faster than the last time, and of course it’s much sooner in the cycle than last time.” (Reuters)
The last time the Fed tried to shrink its balance sheet, between 2017 and 2019, it caused repo rates (SOFR) to explode in September 2019. The Fed was panicked into lending in the repo market and restarting QE, ending their QT experiment.
QT
Equities are unlikely to be fazed by initial rate hikes but markets are highly sensitive to liquidity. A decline in the Fed’s balance sheet would be mirrored by a fall in M2 money supply.
And a similar decline in stocks.
Ukraine & Russia
Unfortunately, Ukrainian and French officials poured cold water on prospects of an early ceasefire.
Conclusion
Financial markets were correct not be alarmed by the prospect of Fed rate hikes. The real interest rate remains deeply negative. But commencement of quantitative tightening (QT) in May is likely to drain liquidity, causing stocks to decline.
Relief over prospects of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and/or any reductions in sanctions is premature.
The bear market is likely to continue.
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.
