Author: Colin Twiggs

Posted on

Houthis and the blow-back

Stocks retraced to test support on concerns over an escalation of hostilities between Israel and Iran and its potential threat to the flow of crude oil from the Middle East.

Stocks

The S&P 500 retraced to test support at 5670/5700, but rising Trend Index troughs signal buying pressure. Respect of support will likely confirm another advance, with a target of 6000.

S&P 500

The equal-weighted index ($IQX) shows that large caps experienced a similar retracement.

S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index

Financial Markets

Bitcoin is consolidating in a narrow “descending flag” channel. Marginally lower troughs are typically a bullish sign, reflecting support. Upward breakout from the channel would signal a fresh advance, confirming strong liquidity in financial markets.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Treasury Markets

Increased demand for safety drove 10-year Treasury yields lower, again testing support at 3.7%.

10-Year Treasury Yield

Dollar & Gold

The Dollar strengthened, benefiting from the same flight to safety.

Dollar Index

Gold retraced to test support, but the flight to safety will likely fuel another rally, breaking resistance at $2,700 per ounce.

Spot Gold

Silver found short-term support at $31 per ounce and will likely re-test long-term resistance at $32.

Spot Silver

ISM Manufacturing

The ISM Manufacturing PMI continues to signal contraction, holding steady at 47.2%.

ISM Manufacturing PMI

The New Orders sub-index at 46.1% warns of further slowing ahead.

ISM Manufacturing New Orders

So does the Employment sub-index at 43.9%.

ISM Manufacturing Employment

The Prices sub-index surprised, dropping below 50% for the first time since the beginning of the year, reflecting declining inflationary pressures.

ISM Manufacturing Prices

Labor Market

Job Openings also surprised, increasing to 8.04 million in August. The gap above unemployment indicates continued labor market tightness.

Job Openings

Crude Oil

Brent crude is rallying on fears of an interruption to oil supplies from the Middle East.

Brent Crude

Conclusion

Escalation of hostilities between Israel and Iran is likely to fuel a flight to safety, increasing demand for Treasuries, gold, and silver.

We expect the S&P 500 to retrace to test support at 5670. Crude oil is likely to rally but remain in a bear market unless Iran attempts to interdict shipping in the Straits of Hormuz and the Red Sea through its Houthi proxies in Yemen.

The ISM PMI warns of a slowing manufacturing sector, but there has been no significant decline in cyclical sector employment so far. Job openings also maintain a healthy gap above unemployment, indicating a still-tight labor market. The economy is expected to remain reasonably robust until the new year, when liquidity may tighten as the US Treasury likely reduces T-bill issuance, replacing them with longer-term coupons.

Acknowledgments

Posted on

China’s manufacturing contraction

China faces growing push-back from trading partners in its efforts to export its way out of a recession. Dumping excess production in export markets has provoked increased tariffs on manufactured goods such as EVs and commodities such as steel. Declining demand in export markets caused a sharp fall in the Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI for September, with the New Orders sub-index falling to its lowest level in two years.

Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI

BEIJING, Sept 30 (Reuters) – China’s manufacturing activity shrank sharply in September as new orders at home and abroad cooled, pulling down factory owners’ confidence to near record lows, a private-sector survey showed on Monday. The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 in September from 50.4 the previous month, missing analysts’ forecasts in a Reuters poll of 50.5. The reading marked the lowest since July last year.

…Even though production expanded for the 11th straight month in September, new orders fell significantly from August’s gain. The sub-index of new orders was the lowest in two years.
While exports have been a bright spot for the economy, new orders from abroad declined at the fastest pace since August last year. Chinese manufacturers said that a deterioration in foreign demand led to the fall in export orders.

Stimulus

George Magnus, former UBS chief economist, author, and commentator on China, writes that Chinese authorities are clearly spooked:

Early last week, the authorities announced the biggest monetary policy stimulus since Covid, comprising interest rate and mortgage rate cuts, reductions in the downpayment for second homes, additional help for state enterprises to buy unsold homes, and 800 billion yuan ($113 billion, £85 billion) of liquidity facilities to allow non-bank financial firms to buy equities and listed firms to buy back their own shares. A 1 trillion yuan ($142 billion, £106 billion) bank re-capitalisation program is also considered likely.

These measures were rocket fuel for stock markets, favouring not least the state enterprises and institutions that constitute much of the ownership of shares. Yet, while the measures generally may bring temporary relief, they will not really boost the economy much. China’s economic problems are not due to interest rates being too high, a shortage of liquidity, or credit supply constraints and China’s property market needs much more than patchy support designed to stop it from adjusting to decades of overbuilding and a bursting bubble.

There are some positives, Magnus notes:

The government is expected to announce during or soon after the Golden Week holiday in the first week of October, a 2 trillion yuan ($284 billion, £212 billion) borrowing programme, split roughly equally between measures to support consumption, and help to alleviate local government indebtedness problems.

The latter amounts to a shift in a limited amount of debt ownership from local to central government, which Beijing has previously railed against, but which is more financial engineering than economic stimulus. The consumption part, however, could have a more meaningful impact. Some is about extending the hitherto sparsely used new-for-old trade-in support for consumer durables and business equipment upgrades. At best this borrows future consumption. The reported introduction of a monthly 800 yuan ( $113, £85) child benefit payment for all but first children, equivalent to about 30 per cent of median post tax monthly income, could certainly give household consumption a shot in the arm.

Stock Market Rally

The Shanghai Composite has made an impressive rally since the announcement.

Shanghai Composite Index

Shadowed by a similar move on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index.

Hang Seng Index

Industrial Metals

Copper broke resistance at $9,500 per tonne after an initial rally caused by a spike in AI data center construction in the US.

Copper

Alumini=um shows a similar breakout, above $2,500 per tonne.

Aluminum

Iron ore so far shows a muted response.

Iron Ore

Crude Oil

Brent crude remains solidly in a bear market.

Brent Crude

Conclusion

Efforts to revive business investment by lowering interest rates are unlikely to have much of a long-term effect when the underlying problem is a shortage in domestic consumption. The private sector will be reluctant to invest when industries already suffer from overcapacity due to insufficient demand.

Overcapacity will also likely worsen as export orders decline due to increased tariffs from trading partners.

Measures to boost consumption through old-for-new “cash for clunkers” exchanges and child benefit programs are a step in the right direction. However, the roughly 1 trillion yuan ($142 billion) is a drop in the ocean compared to the scale required.

Most of the announced stimulus is aimed at papering over the cracks and meeting short-term GDP targets rather than the fundamental change in direction needed to address the underlying consumption deficit.

We expect short-term relief to be followed by a resumption of the deflationary contraction.

Acknowledgments

Posted on

The Great Pumpkin | Eric Cinnamond

Great stock market analogy from Eric Cinnamond at Palm Valley Capital:

As a kid I always looked forward to Halloween. Growing up in a health-conscious “no sweets” household, Halloween was an opportunistic time to load up on my favorite chocolate bars and candy. If I played my bag of treats right, my sweet tooth could be satisfied until Christmas!

Another thing I enjoyed about Halloween was the television special, It’s the Great Pumpkin, Charlie Brown. It was and remains a classic. Released in 1966, the Peanuts special follows its cast members as they celebrate Halloween. Some of the Peanuts crew go trick-or-treating, while others attend a party. But not Linus—he does his own thing.

Instead of celebrating with his friends, Linus spends his Halloween waiting in a pumpkin patch for the Great Pumpkin. According to Linus, “On Halloween night, the Great Pumpkin rises from his pumpkin patch and flies through the air with his bag of toys to all the children.” Unfortunately, the Great Pumpkin never arrives, and Linus is ridiculed by his friends. He’s even called a blockhead!

Our belief in full market cycles, including a bull and bear market, is beginning to feel more and more like Linus’s belief in the Great Pumpkin. However, instead of pumpkins, we sit in a patch of T-bills waiting for the return of sensible equity valuations. And rather than bringing a bag of toys, we expect this cycle’s Great Pumpkin (bear market) will bring patient investors the gift of lower prices and opportunity.

From the outside looking in, believing in full market cycles, bear markets, and even recessions, probably looks foolish. To some, we might even look like blockheads! Nevertheless, we continue to believe equity valuations are very expensive, exposing investors to considerable risk. In fact, we consider this stage of the market cycle to be an asset bubble—the third stock market bubble of our careers. The first two bubbles were verified by significant losses, with the S&P 500 losing half of its value during both bear markets (2000-2002 -49% and 2007-2009 -56%).

Our latest page on stock market valuation supports his view:

Stock Market Value Indicator

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Bull/Bear Market Indicator

We aim to consolidate our economic and financial market analysis into a single quantifiable bull/bear market indicator.

Bull/Bear Market Indicator

We modified one of our five component market risk indicators to reduce whipsaws. Instead of the Fed Funds Rate confirmed by ISM Services Business Activity, we have created a composite indicator comprising:

  • the Fed Funds Rate;
  • the Coincident Economic Activity Index from the Philadelphia Fed;
  • the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index; and
  • the S&P 500 with 30-week Twiggs Smoothed Momentum.

Three out of four components are required to confirm a bear market.

Our first signal was the Coincident Economic Activity Index which crossed below 2.5% annual growth for the 12 months to July, warning that the economy is slowing.

Coincident Economic Activity Index from the Philadelphia Fed

Last week, the Fed announced a 50 basis point rate cut, adding a second bear signal.

Fed Funds Target Rate (Average of High & Low)

However, the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index below zero signals easy monetary conditions at a low -0.56.

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index

30-Week Twiggs Smoothed Momentum also signals a healthy up-trend on the S&P 500 at 12.8%.

S&P 500 with 30-week Twiggs Smoothed Momentum

The signal, therefore, remains Risk-On.

Of our four remaining risk indicators, only one signals Risk-Off.

The spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 3-month T-bill discount rate has been negative for 22 months. While that is a record time, it does not negate its reliability in predicting a recession within 12 months after the inversion ends.

10-Year Treasury Yield - 3-Month T-bill Discount Rate

Our second risk signal would only be triggered when the yield curve inversion ends.

Employment in cyclical industries—manufacturing, construction, transport, and warehousing—accounts for most of the jobs lost during a typical recession. Cyclical employment grew by 17,900 in August, with no sign of a recession on the horizon.

Cyclical Employment

Heavy truck sales are another reliable leading indicator of recessions. Seasonally adjusted sales of more than 42,000 units in August continue to signal a robust economy.

Heavy Truck Sales

Conclusion

Four out of five risk indicators continue to signal a bull market.

Our strategy is to divide our investment portfolio into five equal-sized buckets of 20% each. For each indicator warning of a bear market, one bucket will be switched to alternative investments—such as A-grade bonds or gold.

At present, only the 10-year/3-month Treasury yield curve warns of a bear market, so we maintain 80% exposure to stocks.

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ASX retraces

A tall shadow on the ASX 200 indicates short-term selling pressure and a likely retracement to test its new support level at 8100.

ASX 200 Index

Financials continue their advance, but gradually, with lower Trend Index peaks warning that buying pressure is fading.

ASX 200 Financials Index

The ASX 300 Metals & Mining Index hesitated after its recent rally and will likely re-test short-term support at 5200. Penetration of the descending trendline indicates that the downtrend has weakened, and a correction that respects support at 5000 would confirm that a bottom has formed.

ASX 300 Metals & Mining Index

Iron ore continues its downtrend as Chinese industrial demand weakens. A breach of support at $90 per tonne would confirm our target of $80.

Iron Ore

However, the All Ordinaries Gold Index broke resistance at 8500, signaling another advance with an expected target of 9000.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

Conclusion

The ASX 200 is retracing to test support at 8100. Respect will likely confirm another advance with a target of 8500. Financials and gold miners are strong, but iron ore remains in a downtrend with a long-term target of $80 per tonne.

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Narrow advance for stocks, bullish consolidation for gold

Falling CPI and plunging crude prices almost guarantee at least a 25-basis-point rate cut at next week’s FOMC meeting. Stocks rallied, led by mega-cap technology stocks, but the advance was narrow, with large caps failing to join the party.

Gold is bullish, boosted by falling long-term Treasury yields and a weak Dollar, but silver remains more bearish.

Stocks

Mega-cap technology stocks led the rally, with Nvidia (NVDA) posting solid gains.

Top 7 Technology Stocks

The move lifted the S&P 500 above resistance at 5500, signaling another test of the all-time high at 5670.

S&P 500

Large caps lagged, with the equal-weighted index ($IQX) failing to show much progress.

S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index

Financial Markets

The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index eased to -0.57, reflecting easy monetary policy.

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index

Bitcoin respected support at $54K [red line], but the bearish declining triangle still warns of tighter financial market liquidity ahead.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Treasury Markets

Ten-year Treasury yields plunged to almost 3.6% before retracing to test new resistance at 3.7%. The steep fall from the 5.0% peak in October last year indicates market expectations of significant rate cuts ahead.

10-Year Treasury Yield

Dollar & Gold

Falling long-term interest rates are driving long-term Dollar weakness. Respect of resistance at 102 on the Dollar Index would confirm another decline, while breach of support at 100 would offer a long-term target of 93.

Dollar Index

A stronger Japanese Yen warns of a more hawkish monetary policy from the Bank of Japan. Rising Japanese interest rates will likely withdraw liquidity from US financial markets and weaken the Dollar.

Japanese Yen

Gold is expected to benefit from falling long-term interest rates and a weaker Dollar. The narrow bullish consolidation below $2,525 per ounce suggests another advance. Breakout above resistance would offer a target of $2,600.

Spot Gold

Silver lags behind gold, struggling to break resistance at $30 per ounce. Breach of support at $28 would warn of another test of long-term support at $26.50.

Spot Silver

CPI Inflation

Headline CPI fell sharply to 2.6% for the 12 months to August, but core CPI lifted to 3.3%.

CPI & Core CPI - Annual

Monthly CPI shows that the sharp drop in the headline rate is caused by the base effects of a spike in July of last year [red circle]. Rising core CPI over the past two months, with August growing at an annualized rate of 3.7%, warns of underlying inflationary pressures.

CPI & Core CPI - Monthly

Sticky prices inflation also increased, to an annualized rate of 3.5% in August, warning that underlying inflationary pressures persist.

Sticky Prices CPI

Shelter

Shelter CPI also increased to an annual rate of 5.2% in August, reflecting a trough in home prices in mid-2023. The Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index [gray below] tends to lead Shelter by roughly 12 months.

CPI Shelter & Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index

Energy

However, the recent sharp fall in crude oil prices warns that inflationary pressures will likely ease in the months ahead.

Brent Crude

Energy CPI grew by -4.0% over the 12 months to August and is likely to fall further in September. The chart below shows how energy CPI [ocher below] plunged from a peak of 41.5% in June ’22, leading to a fall in headline CPI.

CPI & CPI Energy - Annual

Food

Food CPI also declined to an annual rate of 2.1% in August, close to the Fed’s target of 2.0%.

CPI Food

Conclusion

Mega-cap technology stocks lifted the S&P 500 above resistance at 5500, indicating another test of the previous high at 5670. Breakout would offer a target of 6000, but the advance is narrow. Large caps in the index show little in the way of net gains, with the equal-weighted index ($IQX) failing to make much progress.

The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index continues to reflect easy monetary policy, but a bearish triangle on Bitcoin and a stronger Japanese Yen warn of tighter liquidity ahead.

The decline in headline CPI is primarily due to base effects from August last year, while core CPI and the sticky price index warn of persistent underlying inflationary pressures. However, a sharp fall in crude oil prices will likely drag overall CPI lower in September.

Falling 10-year Treasury yields reflect market expectations of significant rate cuts commencing on September 18. The Dollar rallied over the week, but the long-term downtrend is likely to persist as rates decline.

Low long-term interest rates and a weak Dollar are expected to be bullish for gold. A Dollar Index breach of support at 100 would confirm our $3,000 per ounce target for gold.

Acknowledgments

Posted on

Nvidia leads the plunge

Stocks plunged after Nvidia (NVDA) fell by 9.5% on reports that the US Department of Justice subpoenaed the chipmaker over complaints that it is violating antitrust laws. (Quartz)

Weak US and China manufacturing activity has also been cited as a cause for market bearishness, but that seems unlikely.

Stocks

Selling in Nvidia [cerise] soon spread to other big-name stocks, with all seven mega-caps closing lower on Tuesday.

Top 7 Technology Stocks

The fall breached short-term support on the S&P 500 at 5550, signaling a correction to test 5400.

S&P 500

The equal-weighted index ($IQX) retraced to test support at 7000. Trend Index troughs above zero indicate longer-term buying pressure. Breach of support would offer a target of 6800, but respect is as likely to confirm our target of 7400.

S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index

Small caps also weakened, with the Russell 2000 iShares ETF (IWM) breaching support at 215 to indicate another test of long-term support at 200. A Trend Index peak at zero warns of selling pressure.

Russell 2000 Small Cap ETF (IWM)

ISM Manufacturing

The ISM Manufacturing PMI edged up to 47.2% in August. Although the cyclical sector is a relatively small percentage of the overall economy, it has a disproportionate impact during recessions as it sheds a large number of jobs. This is the sixth consecutive month of contraction (below 50), but the uptick indicates the contraction is slowing.

ISM Manufacturing PMI

New Orders are also contracting, indicating further headwinds ahead.

ISM Manufacturing New Orders

Also, the Prices sub-index continues to expand, warning of persistent inflationary pressure.

ISM Manufacturing Prices

However, the bearish outlook for manufacturing is offset by solid growth in other cyclical sectors, with combined employment in manufacturing, construction, and transport & warehousing reaching 27.85 million.

Manufacturing, Construction, and Transport & Warehousing

Non-residential construction spending continues to strengthen even when adjusted for inflation, benefiting from government programs to re-shore critical supply chains.

Non-Residential Construction Spending adjusted for inflation

China Manufacturing Activity

The official National Bureau of Statistics manufacturing PMI for China fell to 49.1 in August, indicating contraction. However, the downturn is contradicted by a rise in the private sector Caixin PMI to 50.4%:

Caixin China Manufacturing PMI & NBS China Manufacturing PMI

Financial Markets

Credit markets still reflect easy financial conditions, with Moody’s Baa corporate bond spread at a low 1.69%. Spreads above 2.5% indicate tight credit.

Moody's Baa Corporate Bond Spreads

However, Bitcoin has respected resistance at $60K [red line], warning of shrinking liquidity.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Treasury Markets

Ten-year Treasury yields are again testing support at 3.8%. Trend Index peaks below zero warn of long-term selling pressure. Breach of support would indicate another attempt at 3.7%.
10-Year Treasury Yield

Low LT yields are bearish for the Dollar and bullish for gold.

Dollar & Gold

The recent rally in the Dollar Index is losing steam. Tuesday’s weak close suggests another test of support between 100 and 101.

Dollar Index

Gold is retracing to test support at $2,475 per ounce. Trend Index troughs high above zero indicate long-term buying pressure. Respect would indicate another advance to test $2,600. Breach is less likely but would warn of a correction.

Spot Gold

Silver is more bearish, and a breach of support at $27.50 per ounce would test the August low at $26.50.

Spot Silver

Energy

Brent crude broke support at $76 per barrel and is headed for a test of long-term support at $73.

Brent Crude

Nymex WTI crude similarly broke support at $72 per barrel, offering a target of $68. We expect the DOE to increase purchases to re-stock the Strategic Petroleum Reserve below $70, providing support for shale drillers whose margins are squeezed at these levels.

Nymex WTI Crude

Uranium

Uranium continues its downtrend, with the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SRUUF) headed for another test of support at 17.

Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SRUUF)
However, we are bullish on the long-term prospects as resistance to the expansion of nuclear energy fades.

EU's New Pro-Nuclear Energy Chief

Base Metals

After its recent rally, copper is testing short-term support at $9,000 per tonne. Breach is likely and would warn of another decline as China’s economy slows.

Copper

Aluminum leads the way, breaking short-term support to warn of another test of the band of long-term support between $2,100 and $2,150 per tonne.

Aluminum

Iron & Steel

Iron ore recovered above $100 per tonne, but respect of the descending trend line would warn of another decline. Reversal below $100 would confirm our target of $80.

 

Iron Ore

Conclusion

Investors are jumpy as mega-cap stocks trade at inflated prices, boosted by passive investment inflows from index ETFs. We expect the S&P 500 to find support at 5400 and maintain our target of 6000 before the end of the year.

One factor that could upset the apple cart is tightening liquidity. However, the Fed and Treasury will likely support liquidity in financial markets, at least until after the November elections. If they withdraw support, then all bets are off.

Falling crude oil prices will likely ease inflationary pressure, while a slowing Chinese economy is expected to add deflationary pressure. Long-term interest rates are expected to remain low, weakening the Dollar. Gold will likely benefit, with another attempt at our target of $2,600 per ounce.

Acknowledgments

Posted on

Another S&P 500 advance likely

Stocks are poised for a breakout, signaling a fresh advance on the S&P 500. All eyes are focused on the September 17-18 FOMC meeting, with an expected rate cut of at least 25 basis points.

Stocks

The S&P 500 is testing resistance at its previous high of 5670, while Trend Index troughs above zero indicate buying pressure. Breakout would offer a target of 6000.

S&P 500

The equal-weighted index ($IQX) has already broken resistance. Retracement respected support at 7000, confirming our target of 7400.

S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index

The Russell 2000 Small Caps ETF (IWM) lags, with the Trend Index struggling to recover above zero. A breakout above 225 would offer a target of 250.

Russell 2000 Small Cap ETF (IWM)

Financial Markets

Liquidity in financial markets is gradually tightening, which could act as a handbrake on any advances. A contracting Fed balance sheet, net of TGA and reverse repo (RRP) liabilities, shows the effect of regular monthly QT reductions.

Fed Assets net of TGA & Reverse Repo (RRP) Liabilities

Commercial bank reserves are shrinking as a result.

Commercial Bank Reserves at the Fed

Bitcoin struggles to hold above support at $60K, highlighting the effects of tightening liquidity.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Treasury Markets

Ten-year Treasury yields are rallying to test resistance at 4.0%, but long-term buying pressure—signaled by Trend Index peaks below zero—is expected to keep yields low for the next quarter.

10-Year Treasury Yield

Bank of Japan

A wild card that could disrupt the system is BOJ monetary policy. The last rate hike, to 0.25%, caused the Dollar to fall sharply against the Yen and a sell-off in US financial markets as carry trade positions were unwound.

Japanese Yen

Further rate hikes are on the cards, with the next BOJ meeting scheduled in October. Jim Grant from Grant’s Interest Rate Observer:

CPI excluding fresh food in Japan’s capital grew at a 2.4% annual pace in August, data released yesterday show, topping the 2.2% consensus expectation and marking its fourth consecutive sequential increase. That data series typically serves as a leading indicator for broader price pressures in the world’s fourth-largest economy; nationwide CPI data is due on Sept. 19.

Pointing to transitory factors including expiring government subsidies for utility bills and rice shortages, Norinchukin Research Institute chief economist Takeshi Minami predicted to Reuters that “the underlying inflation trend will continue to moderate in coming months.”

However, percolating wage growth – with average pay rising 5.2% this year per data compiled by Japanese Trade Union Confederation, the highest in more than three decades – could bolster the Bank of Japan’s appetite for further tightening following the July 31 rate increase to 0.25% from a 0% to 0.1% range, as BoJ chief Kazuo Ueda suggested to parliament last week.

Considering the acute financial spasm which followed that rate adjustment and accompanying unwind of yen-funded carry trade positions, the prospect of a sequel would presumably be front of mind for Mr. Market. Investors remain confident that such an outcome is in fact far-fetched, with interest rate futures assigning only 9% odds of further tightening at the BoJ’s Oct. 18 meeting.

Some observers aren’t so sure. “My money is on another rate hike in October,” Moody’s senior economist Stefan Angrick told CNBC Friday, further predicting at least one further uptick early next year. Bloomberg economist Taro Kimura likewise anticipates an October shift to 0.5%, writing that Thursday’s data illustrate “a broad upswing in service prices,” and “increases the risk that the BoJ can’t afford to wait to pare stimulus.”

The destabilizing effect of further BOJ rate hikes should not be underestimated.

Inflation

US inflation, on the other hand, remains subdued. Core PCE inflation ticked to 2.6% for the 12 months to July, but the Trimmed Mean PCE rate declined to 2.7%.

PCE, Core PCE & Trimmed Mean PCE

Monthly core PCE and the headline rate for July are more encouraging, with both growing at an annualized rate below 2.0%.

PCE Inflation - Monthly

Dollar & Gold

The Dollar Index remains in a strong downtrend, with Trends Index peaks below zero, warning of long-term selling pressure. We expect the latest rally to encounter resistance at 102.50.

Dollar Index

Gold retraced to $2,500 per ounce, with a likely test of support at $2,475 as long-term Treasury yields rally and the Dollar strengthens. However, the precious metal is in a strong up-trend, and respect of support would confirm our target of $2,600.

Spot Gold

Silver is weaker than gold because of weak industrial demand from China’s solar industry. A breach of its current support level near $29 per ounce would warn of a decline to test long-term support at $26.50.

Spot Silver

Crude Oil

Brent crude continues to build a base between $76 and $82 per barrel. Low crude prices ease inflationary pressures in the global economy and improve the prospect of lower interest rates.

Brent Crude

Base Metals

Copper penetrated its descending trendline, suggesting that a base is forming. A correction that respects support at $8,600 per tonne would strengthen the signal.

Copper

Aluminum rallied strongly, indicating improving industrial demand. A breakout above $2,500 per tonne would be a bullish sign for copper.

Aluminum

Conclusion

Financial markets warn of gradual tightening, but low long-term interest rates, subdued inflation, and the prospect of a Fed rate cut at the FOMC meeting on September 17-18 are all bullish for stocks. We expect the S&P 500 to break through resistance at its previous high of 5670, confirming our target of 6000.

However, investors need to be aware of the risks ahead in 2025.

After the November elections, Treasury is expected to shift its quarterly funding towards longer-term coupons to take advantage of lower yields. The resulting increase in supply could drive up long-term yields while reducing liquidity in financial markets. On the other side of the Pacific, further rate rises by the Bank of Japan could spark a sell-off in US financial markets as more Yen-financed carry trades are unwound.

Either of the above actions could contract liquidity in financial markets, causing another stock sell-off.

We remain bullish on gold as long as long-term interest rates remain low, weakening the Dollar. Silver is likely to underperform due to weak industrial demand.

Acknowledgments

Posted on

Short, medium and long-term outlook

We conclude with a summary of our short-, medium-, and long-term outlook. But first, let’s examine today’s market activity.

Stocks

The S&P 500 is edging higher, gaining 0.3% yesterday, while the strengthening Trend Index indicates that more buyers are returning to the market.

S&P 500The advance is also broadening, with the S&P 500 equal-weighed index ($IQX) testing resistance at the recent high of 7000. Breakout would offer a target of 7400.

S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index

Financial Markets

The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index declined to -0.52 on August 16, signaling that monetary conditions are again easing.

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index

However, Bitcoin continues to consolidate around $60K, warning that financial market conditions are still unsettled.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Treasury Markets

Ten-year Treasury yields are headed for a test of support at 3.7% while declining Trend Index peaks below zero warn of growing long-term buying pressure, driving down yields.

10-Year Treasury Yield

Expectations of Fed rate cuts are driving yields lower and weakening the Dollar, which is bullish for gold.

Dollar & Gold

The Dollar Index is testing the band of long-term support between 100 and 101. Declining Trend Index peaks below zero warn of growing long-term selling pressure. A breach of 100 would signal a bear market, with a long-term target of 94.

Dollar Index

Gold is retracing to test support between $2,475 and $2,500 per ounce. Rising Trend Index troughs above zero indicate growing long-term buying pressure. Respect of support is likely to confirm our target of $2,600.

Spot Gold

Silver is expected to test support at $29 per ounce. Respect is likely and would confirm our target of $31.50.

Spot Silver

Crude Oil

Brent crude is testing support between $76 and $77 per barrel. A breach would offer a target of $72 to $73 per barrel, the lows from 2023.

Brent Crude

Conclusion

Our short-, medium-, and long-term outlook:

Short-term

Easy monetary conditions will likely continue until after the November election, with a September Fed rate cut of 0.25% almost certain. The S&P 500 is expected to test resistance at its recent high of 5670. Breakout is likely to offer a target of 6000.

Falling interest rates and a weakening Dollar are expected to boost demand for gold and silver, with short-term targets of $2,600 and $31.50 per ounce, respectively.

Medium-term

Our 2025 outlook is for weak industrial demand from China and increased push-back against their dumping of excess production in international markets. Resulting low crude oil and base metal prices are expected to ease global inflationary pressures. Central banks are likely to reduce interest rates to cushion the impact of a contraction in economic activity.

Low long-term yields and a Dollar bear market are expected to be bullish for gold and silver. We expect the S&P 500 to peak at 6000, with stocks growing increasingly bearish as earnings contract and activity declines despite low interest rates.

Long-term

China is expected to suffer from a decade of low growth as it struggles to deal with excessive debt levels and overinvestment in real estate, infrastructure, and industrial capacity. The US and most developed nations also struggle with high debt levels and will endeavor to keep real interest rates near zero. High asset inflation will likely result, causing strong demand for precious metals, real estate, and stocks.

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