Author: Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.
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Multiculturalism, segregation and the road to ruin

I just read an article about the joys of multiculturalism and how all Australians should strive to “show the world what a truly multicultural society could be.”

“Multiculturalism” is such a nice-sounding, inoffensive word that we may be forgiven for picking it up without really examining its implications. A multicultural society is also a fragmented society, divided along ethnic, religious, language or cultural lines and represents a breakdown in cohesion. Taken to its extreme, individual groups will claim the right to self-determination — another nice-sounding word, this time conjured up by spin doctors of South Africa’s apartheid era — a euphemism for promoting the interests of one group without consideration for the impact on others.

I find it ironic that Simon van der Stel, a Dutch governor of the Cape colony had in the early 18th century created a blueprint for a cohesive society. When Dutch settlers were swamped by French Protestants fleeing from persecution in Catholic France, he recognized the dangers of creating a fragmented society. His solution was to allocate farms in a checkerboard fashion, interspersing Huguenots among existing settlers, with the provision that all school lessons and official business be conducted in Dutch. Within a generation the two cultures had successfully integrated. Dutch remained the official language while the culture was enriched by a strong French influence still prevalent today, especially in the wine industry.

We need to similarly recognize the dangers of multiculturalism and strive for a truly integrated society with a unique Australian culture, tolerant of all religions and enriched by the infusion of many different cultures.

Segregation of schools on religious, ethnic or language lines encourages fragmentation of our society. The present state school system in Australia needs to be reformed after a healthy, open debate — in order to discourage segregation.

Australia’s strength in times of adversity has come from its unique culture. While that culture is evolving, and will continue to do so, we should ensure that it remains unified. Unity and openness are our strength.

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En Passant » Slip sliding away: a eulogy for Gillard Labor?

John Passant: There is the rotten stench wafting from the crypt of Parliament of a dying party bereft of principle whose raison d’etre is power for powers’ sake, not the betterment of the working class and the poor.

….The Slipper syndrome – power before principle, rule for the rich – highlights once again the bankruptcy of Labor and may be another heaving gasp on the way to the final death rattle of the ALP’s version of social democracy in Australia.

via En Passant » Slip sliding away: a eulogy for Gillard Labor?.

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Clarke and Dawe – Please Do Not Attempt This at Home

“Mr Constantine Vergence” discusses the carbon tax. Originally aired on ABC TV’s 7.30: 24/03/2011.

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Clarke and Dawe – How To Run a Country

Mr Oliver Gopoly, Australian banking executive. Originally aired on ABC TV’s The 7.30 Report: 4/11/2010:

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Clarke and Dawe – Important new research reveals enterprise doomed from the start

Clark and Dawe draw parallels between the Australian parliamentary system and the Titanic:

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Not Exactly a Miracle, but U.S. Debt Levels Are Falling – Floyd Norris – NYTimes.com

Floyd Norris: To get some idea of what needs to be done now — and what the result will be — the McKinsey institute points to two incidents in the early 1990s that got little attention at the time in the United States. Those were the bursting of real estate bubbles in Sweden and Finland. Details differ, but in each country there were two distinct phases of deleveraging.

“In the first,” the McKinsey institute said in an analysis published early this year, “households, corporations and financial institutions reduce debt significantly over several years, while economic growth is negative or minimal and government debt rises.” That is certainly what has happened in the United States.

The second phase is the good part, the institute said. “Growth rebounds and government debt is reduced gradually over several years.”

In this country, the deleveraging process has some way to go, with many foreclosures still pending, but it is at least possible that economic growth is beginning to accelerate. It is clear that the United States has made a lot more progress in cutting consumer debt than has been made in either Britain or Spain, two other countries that suffered from falling real estate prices.

via Not Exactly a Miracle, but U.S. Debt Levels Are Falling – Floyd Norris – NYTimes.com.

Comment:~ Before we congratulate ourselves on escaping from the clutches of the Great Recession, let’s not forget that government debt is growing at an unsustainable rate of $1.2 trillion/year. That is likely to slow sharply after November elections, causing a “double-dip” contraction. The deleveraging process has only just begun.

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Reserve Bank Governor greets Clarke and Dawe ~ ABC 7.30

Glenn Stevens, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, meets Clarke and Dawe and responds to criticism from union leader Paul Howes.

BRYAN DAWE: Mr Howes says the Reserve Bank has the wrong interest rate policy and fears for job in industry.

JOHN CLARKE: Does he? Does he say why?

BRYAN DAWE: He says the cost of Australian goods are too high.

JOHN CLARKE: Is the term “cost of labour” used at any point in his no-doubt-penetrating analysis of what the adults are thinking about in the other room?…..

via 7.30 – ABC.

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Forex: Canadian Loonie and Aussie Dollar

Canada’s Loonie continues its narrow consolidation, having withstood falling crude oil prices over the last two weeks. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding above zero indicates a primary up-trend. Breakout above $1.01 would signal a primary advance to the 2011 high of $1.06*. Failure of support at $0.995 is less likely but would warn of a correction to primary support at $0.95.

Canadian Loonie

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06

Weaker commodity prices are dragging the Aussie Dollar lower. On the weekly chart we can see the Aussie testing medium-term support at $1.02. Respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum suggest a strong up-trend. In the longer term, breakout above $1.085 would offer a target of $1.20*.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 1.08 + ( 1.08 – 0.96 ) = 1.20

On the daily chart, the Aussie Dollar is testing resistance at $1.045. Breach of its descending trendline indicates that the correction has weakened. Recovery above $1.045 would indicate the start of a fresh advance to test the 2012 high of $1.085.

Aussie Dollar

The Aussie Dollar is also retracing for another test of support against the South African Rand — at R7.90/R8.00. Momentum has fallen sharply and failure of support would warn of a correction to the long-term ascending trendline, around R7.50.

Aussie Dollar/South African Rand

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Forex: Euro, Pound Sterling and Yen

The Euro is consolidating above support at $1.30. Failure would test  primary support at $1.26. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would indicate continuation of the primary down-trend. In the long term, failure of $1.26 would signal a decline to the 2010 low of $1.19/$1.20*.

Euro

* Target calculation: 1.26 – ( 1.34 – 1.26 ) = 1.18

Pound Sterling is consolidating below resistance at $1.60. Upward breakout would indicate an advance to the 2011 high of $1.67 — confirmed if resistance at  $1.62 is penetrated — while failure of short-term support at $1.58 would warn of another test of primary support at $1.53. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum above zero indicates a primary up-trend; but this would only be confirmed by breakout above $1.62.

Pound Sterling

The US Dollar is testing support at ¥80, against the Japanese Yen. Respect is likely and recovery above ¥82 would indicate a fresh primary advance.  Penetration of resistance at ¥84 would confirm the primary up-trend already signaled by 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero.

Japanese Yen

* Target calculation: 85 + ( 85 – 80 ) = 90

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Crude oil and commodities correction

Brent Crude is headed for a test of medium-term support at $115/barrel. Respect would confirm the strong primary up-trend; strengthened if 63-day Twiggs Momentum forms a trough above the zero line. Breakout above $126 would offer a target of $150/barrel*.

ICE Brent Afternoon Markers

* Target calculation: 125 + ( 125 – 100 ) = 150

The broader CRB Commodities Index broke its long-term rising trendline and is headed for a test of primary support at 295 . Failure would signal a decline to 265*. The 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below the zero line already indicates continuation of the primary down-trend.

CRB Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 295 – ( 325 – 295 ) = 265

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