Author: Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.
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New Jolt Looms for Investors: Earnings – WSJ.com

Jonathan Cheng: Companies begin reporting second-quarter earnings this week, starting with Alcoa Inc. (AA -2.19%) on Monday. Already, 42 companies—including Ford Motor Co. (F -0.73%) and Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN -2.43%) —have warned investors that profits will be lower than initially expected…….

Companies now are being hit on several fronts. Economies in China, Europe and the U.S. are slowing. That is hurting companies dependent on demand from those countries. As well, the U.S. dollar has jumped against the euro and other currencies, reducing profits made from international sales for U.S. companies.

via New Jolt Looms for Investors: Earnings – WSJ.com.

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S&P 500 dividend yields signal oversold?

Historically the S&P 500 was considered overbought — and ripe for a bear market — when the dividend yield dropped below 3 percent. A surge in share buybacks in the past two decades, however, disrupted this relationship, with the dividend yield falling close to 1.0 percent in the Dotcom era.

S&P 500 Earnings and Dividend Yields

What happens when we adjust for share buybacks?

In 2011, S&P 500 share buybacks increased to $409.0 billion. With dividends of $298 billion*, that gives a total cash distribution (dividends and buybacks) of $707 billion for a yield of 5.44 percent. Right in the middle of the 5.0 to 6.0 percent range previously considered typical of an oversold market.

* S&P 500 market capitalization of $12,993 billion at June 29, 2012 multiplied by 2.29 percent

Unfortunately share buybacks fluctuate wildly with the state of the market:

S&P 500 Share Buybacks

If we omit the highest and lowest readings, and take the average share buyback over the remaining 3 years, it amounts to $349 billion. That would give adjusted total cash distributions of $614 billion and an adjusted yield of 4.98 percent — still close to the oversold range.

Compare to Earnings Yield

The current reported earnings yield of 6.8 percent, however, is way below the highs (10 to 14 percent) of the 1970s and 80s. Current distributions (dividends plus buybacks) amount to 80 percent of current earnings. Payout ratios above 60 percent are considered unsustainable.

My conclusion is that earnings yield offers a more accurate measure of value. And reflects a market that is fairly valued — rather than overbought or oversold — especially when we consider the likelihood of earnings disappointments.

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Falling Treasury yields: Money is flowing out of stocks

10-Year Treasury yields broke medium-term support at 1.55 percent, indicating another decline. Breach of support at 1.45 percent would confirm, offering a target of 1.20 percent*. Latest stats from the Fed show holdings of Treasury notes and bonds fell over the last week, so the fall is not due to “Operation Twist”. Declining yields suggest that the current stock market rally is likely to fail: money is flowing out of stocks and into bonds. Recovery above 1.70 percent is unlikely but would suggest another stock market rally.

10-Year Treasury Yields

* Target calculation: 1.45 – ( 1.70 – 1.45 ) = 1.20

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Roubini Says 2013 `Storm' May Surpass 2008 Crisis

Nouriel Robini on Bloomberg TV: The Euro summit was a failure… markets were expecting much more. Either you have debt neutralization [EFSF purchases of government bonds] or debt monetization by the ECB or EFSF/ESM be doubled or tripled using leverage ….or you will have a worse crisis in the next few weeks.

The ability of politicians to kick the can down the road will run out of steam in 2013…..next year could be a global perfect storm

Bloomberg TV: Roubini Says 2013 `Storm’ May Surpass 2008 Crisis

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The Threat From a Recession | ECRI

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, which claims a perfect recession-forecasting record, says an economic contraction is imminent. “We have not seen a slowdown where year-over-year payroll job growth has dropped this low without a recession,” ECRI states in a May report.

If, or when, the U.S. (and/or the global) economy does start to contract, commodity prices will tumble because of three factors…..

via The Threat From a Recession | News | News and Events | ECRI.

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Economists React: How Likely Is QE3 Following Jobs Data? – WSJ

CAPITAL ECONOMICS: QE3 will depend on second-quarter GDP and July’s ISM data because the jobs report was not bad enough to make QE3 “a done deal.” Both GDP and ISM numbers will be released just ahead of the Fed’s next policy meeting.

via Economists React: How Likely Is QE3 Following Jobs Data? – Real Time Economics – WSJ.

Comment:~ The range of opinion canvassed by WSJ leans toward the Fed holding off QE3 for the present because jobs numbers aren’t bad enough to warrant drastic intervention. In the long run QE appears inevitable — and not only in the US. There are three options: (1) stagnation with low growth and high unemployment; (2) debt-deflation as in 2009; and (3) inflation. Option (3) would reduce the public debt load by raising nominal GDP and rescue underwater homeowners and banks by lifting real estate values. Those on fixed incomes would suffer but they do not appear a powerful enough lobby to deter politicians from this course.

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Forex: Euro, Pound Sterling, Canadian Loonie, Australian Dollar, Japanese Yen and South African Rand

The Euro broke support at $1.25 before falling sharply through $1.24, warning of another decline. Narrow consolidation below the new resistance level is a bearish sign. Follow-through below $1.23 would offer a target of $1.20.

Euro/USD

Pound Sterling broke resistance at €1.25 against the Euro, offering a target of €1.28.

Pound Sterling/Euro

* Target calculation: 1.250 + ( 1.250 – 1.215 ) = 1.285

Canada’s Loonie is strengthening against the US Dollar on the back of rising oil prices. Expect another test of $1.02.

Canadian Loonie/US Dollar

The Aussie Dollar threatens to break down from its recent flag formation. Failure of support at $1.025 would suggest a test of $1.01.

Aussie Dollar/USD

The Aussie Dollar continues to range between ¥72 and ¥90 Japanese Yen. Dips are getting shorter and range traders may need to move their base to ¥75.

Aussie Dollar/Japanese Yen

Against the South African Rand, the Aussie Dollar is testing resistance at R8.50. Breakout would offer a target of R9.00. Narrow consolidation above R8.30 would be a bullish sign.

Aussie Dollar/South African Rand

* Target calculation: 8.50 + ( 8.50 – 8.00 ) = 9.00

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Europe Central Banks Fight Slowdown – WSJ.com

The ECB lowered its main lending rate by 0.25 percentage point to 0.75%, the lowest level in the central bank’s 13-year history. It reduced the rate it pays banks that deposit funds overnight with the central bank by the same amount, to zero. Both decisions were unanimous.

via Europe Central Banks Fight Slowdown – WSJ.com.

Comment:~ Lowering interest rates will help restore liquidity, but will not fix the current solvency crisis.

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Commodities rebound

The US Dollar Index continues to respect support at 81.00, indicating another test of resistance at 83.50 on the Weekly chart. Breakout would offer a target of 86.00*. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum oscillating above the zero line indicates a healthy up-trend.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 82 + ( 82 – 78 ) = 86

Spot Gold similarly respected support at $1530 per ounce and is headed for a test of $1640/$1650. Confidence in the introduction of QE3 has strengthened support. Breakout above $1640 would indicate a rally to $1800. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero, however, warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of primary support at $1530 would confirm.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1550 – ( 1800 – 1550 ) = 1300

The 2-Hour chart displays a flag formation over the last two days. Upward breakout (above 1620) would signal a test of $1640.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1620 – ( 1620 – 1600 ) = 1640

Brent Crude retraced sharply to test resistance at $100 per barrel, fueled by rising hope of recovery in Europe and tensions with Iran. Penetration of the declining trendline would suggest that a bottom is forming. Respect of resistance, however, would indicate a decline to $80, with the long-term target at $75*. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would strengthen the bear signal.

ICE Brent Afternoon Markers

* Target calculation: 100 – ( 125 – 100 ) = 75

Crude is not the only commodity driving prices higher. The CRB Non-Energy Commodities Index is testing its upper standard deviation channel. Breakout would indicate that a bottom is forming. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would complete a bullish divergence, indicating reversal to a primary up-trend. Respect of the upper trend channel, on the other hand, would indicate a decline to 240*.

CRB Commodities (ex-Energy) Index

* Target calculation: 260 – ( 280 – 260 ) = 240

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Euro/USD

The Euro retreated from resistance at $1.27 on the 2-Hour chart and, after breaking support at $1.255, is headed for a test of $1.24. Follow-through below $1.25 would strengthen the signal, while reversal above $1.255 would negate. Penetration of the descending trendline would suggest that a bottom is forming, with another test of $1.27 to follow.

Euro/USD

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