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French Industrial Policies Are Aiding Rapid Decline of Peugeot – SPIEGEL ONLINE
By Dietmar Hawranek and Isabell Hülsen:
When Helping Is Hurting
Ironically, the victims of these two developments — focusing on production in France and high wage increases — are those whose cause is being championed by governments and labor representatives: the autoworkers themselves. Workers at the [Peugeot] Aulnay plant had to look on as their company went into gradual decline. Aulnay was once one of the most modern plants in the country, annually producing more than 400,000 cars. Today, fewer than 140,000 vehicles roll off its assembly lines each year. An auto plant that produces so few vehicles can hardly be profitable. If President Hollande and the unions compel Peugeot to keep the plant in operation, they will only accelerate the company’s demise.
via French Industrial Policies Are Aiding Rapid Decline of Peugeot – SPIEGEL ONLINE.
In the classroom | Abstruse Goose
New Wave of Deft Robots Is Changing Global Industry – NYTimes.com
The cost of automated assembly lines is falling and at some point will become cheaper than their labor-intensive equivalent. The result could be a tectonic shift in manufacturing but where will the redundant assembly workers find jobs? JOHN MARKOFF of the NYTimes writes:
The falling costs and growing sophistication of robots have touched off a renewed debate among economists and technologists over how quickly jobs will be lost. This year, Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, economists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, made the case for a rapid transformation. “The pace and scale of this encroachment into human skills is relatively recent and has profound economic implications,” they wrote in their book, “Race Against the Machine.”
In their minds, the advent of low-cost automation foretells changes on the scale of the revolution in agricultural technology over the last century, when farming employment in the United States fell from 40 percent of the work force to about 2 percent today.
via New Wave of Deft Robots Is Changing Global Industry – NYTimes.com.
ASX revenue from high frequency trading soars
A new data center, catering for high-speed trading, is becoming a major revenue-source for the ASX. My concern is that this could change the entire focus of the ASX, outweighing revenue from traditional stock market trading. Tom Steinert-Threlkeld at the Securities Technology Monitor writes:
The Australian Securities Exchange Group said Thursday that its revenue from Technical Services in its 2012 fiscal year topped the amount of revenue it received from stock market trading……
The growth in Technical Services revenue came as the company introduced different order types and execution services, and completed a state-of-the art data center. That data center operates at high speed and handles high volumes of trading orders, from computers belonging to trading firms that are located inside its walls. ASX said it was hosting 59 clients in the new data center as of June 30.
via Stock Trading Revenue Topped by Technology at Australia Exchange.
Friedman’s Japanese lessons for the ECB « The Market Monetarist
Milton Friedman, December 1997:
Defenders of the Bank of Japan will say, “How? The bank has already cut its discount rate to 0.5 percent. What more can it do to increase the quantity of money?”
The answer is straightforward: The Bank of Japan can buy government bonds on the open market, paying for them with either currency or deposits at the Bank of Japan, what economists call high-powered money. Most of the proceeds will end up in commercial banks, adding to their reserves and enabling them to expand their liabilities by loans and open market purchases. But whether they do so or not, the money supply will increase.
There is no limit to the extent to which the Bank of Japan can increase the money supply if it wishes to do so. Higher monetary growth will have the same effect as always. After a year or so, the economy will expand more rapidly; output will grow, and after another delay, inflation will increase moderately. A return to the conditions of the late 1980s would rejuvenate Japan and help shore up the rest of Asia.
via Friedman’s Japanese lessons for the ECB « The Market Monetarist.
Friedman was suggesting that the BOJ implement QE to boost the money supply and create inflation. Inflation would rescue the banks and real-estate-owners with underwater mortgages.
Forex: Euro, Pound Sterling, Canadian Loonie, Australian Dollar and Japanese Yen
The Euro is testing short-term support at $1.2250 on the daily chart. Recovery above $1.2400 would indicate another rally, while failure of support would test primary support at $1.2050. The primary trend is still downwards, but breach of the descending trendline means the primary down-trend is losing momentum and a bottom is forming. Failure of primary support is unlikely but would warn of another down-swing, with a target of $1.185.
* Target calculation: 1.215 – ( 1.245 – 1.215 ) = 1.185
Pound Sterling found support at €1.255 against the Euro before rallying to €1.28. Narrow consolidation between €1.27 and €1.28 suggests continuation of the rally. Breach of resistance at €1.29 would signal an advance to €1.315*. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum reflects a strong primary up-trend.
* Target calculation: 1.285 + ( 1.285 – 1.255 ) = 1.315
Canada’s Loonie is headed for a test of resistance against the greenback at $1.02. Bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum on the weekly chart suggests a primary up-trend; confirmed if resistance at $1.02 is broken.
Shallow retracement of the Aussie Dollar against the greenback suggests trend strength. Recovery above $1.06 would indicate an advance to $1.075. Breakout above $1.075/$1.08 would offer a long-term target of $1.20* but RBA intervention, to protect local industry, could be a factor.
* Target calculation: 1.045 + ( 1.045 – 1.015 ) = 1.075
The greenback found support at ¥78 against the Japanese Yen. Rising Twiggs Momentum and penetration of the descending trendline both warn that a bottom is forming. Recovery above ¥80.50 would complete a double bottom reversal, suggesting an advance to ¥84.
* Target calculation: 81 + ( 81 – 78 ) = 84
The Aussie Dollar broke medium-term resistance at ¥82 against the Japanese Yen, headed for a test of the upper range border at ¥88/¥90. Rising 63-Day Twiggs Momentum and recovery above zero suggest a primary up-trend as the Aussie Dollar attracts capital inflows.
Air cargo volume indicator points to weakening of industrial activities
10 August, 2012, 1:53. Posted by Zarathustra
Nomura has a Air cargo volume index (as we first mentioned here), which correlated with global industrial activities pretty with (correlation = 0.84).
via Air cargo volume indicator points to weakening of industrial activities.
Dollar up-trend continues, gold finds support, commodities range widely
The US Dollar Index is testing support at 81.50/82.00. Respect of support and the rising trendline would confirm the primary up-trend is intact, offering a target of 86.00*. Breakout above 83.50/84.00 would confirm the advance. In the longer term, expect a test of the 2010 high at 88.50. Oscillation of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero indicates a healthy up-trend. Failure of support at 81.50 is unlikely, but would warn of a trend reversal.
* Target calculation: 82 + ( 82 – 78 ) = 86
With the Dollar Index in a primary up-trend, Spot Gold would be expected to commence a primary down-trend. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum (below zero) indicates a primary down-trend but strong buying support at $1530/ounce has kept consolidation (on the weekly chart) between $1530 and $1650 per ounce. Breakout below primary support at $1530 would offer a target of $1300*. Recovery above $1650 is unlikely but would indicate an advance to $1800.
* Target calculation: 1550 – ( 1800 – 1550 ) = 1300
Spot silver shows similar consolidation to gold, between $26 and $30 per ounce. Breakout will indicate future direction.
CRB Commodities Index is testing its descending trendline; follow-through above $305 would warn that a bottom is forming — and test 325. Recovery of 63-Day Twiggs Momentum above zero would also suggest a trend change. However, reversal below 295 — and respect of zero by TMO — would indicate another test of 265.
Brent Crude is testing resistance at $115, having penetrated its descending trendline to suggest that a bottom is forming. Reversal below $108 would signal another test of support at $90/$100. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero continues to indicate a primary down-trend; a peak below zero would strengthen the signal.
Nymex WTI Light Sweet Crude diverged from Brent Crude but is similarly testing resistance, at $93/barrel. Long-term oscillation of 63-day Twiggs Momentum around the zero line suggests a ranging market — between $75 and $110 — but a peak below zero would change that.
Nanex ~ High frequency traders at work [video]
High Frequency Traders (HFT) jam thousands of quotes in MasterCard stock at the millisecond level on May 16, 2012.
From Eric Hunsader – Nanex
Entire video shows about 5 seconds of time, slowed so you can see what goes on at the millisecond level.
Each box represents one exchange. The SIP (CQS in this case) at the bottom shows the National Best Bid/Offer.
Watch how much Best Bid/Offer changes in a fraction of a second. The shapes represent quote changes which are the result of a change to the top of the book at each exchange. The time at the top of the screen is the time of the last quote or trade update in Eastern Time HH:MM:SS:mmm (mmm = millisecond).
Every exchange must process every quote from the others — for proper trade through price protection. This complex web of technology must run flawlessly every millisecond of the trading day, or arbitrage (HFT profit) opportunities will appear. If any of the connections are not running perfectly, High Frequency Traders can profit from the price discrepancies that result. It is easy for HFTs to cause delays in one or more of the connections between each exchange.