Author: Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.
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The difference between California and Texas

Amusing parable told by Dallas Fed President Richard W Fisher at the Cato Institute:

“The governor of California is jogging with his dog along a nature trail. A coyote jumps out and attacks the governor’s dog, then bites the governor. The governor starts to intervene, but reflects upon the movie Bambi and then realizes he should stop because the coyote is only doing what is natural.

“He calls animal control. Animal control captures the coyote and bills the state $200 for testing it for diseases and $500 for relocating it. He calls a veterinarian. The vet collects the dead dog and bills the state $200 for testing it for diseases. The governor goes to the hospital and spends $3,500 getting checked for diseases from the coyote and getting his bite wound bandaged.

“The running trail gets shut down for six months while the California Fish and Game Department conducts a $100,000 survey to make sure the area is now free of dangerous animals. The governor spends $50,000 in state funds implementing a ‘coyote awareness program’ for residents of the area. The Legislature spends $2 million to study how to better treat rabies and how to permanently eradicate the disease throughout the world.

“The governor’s security agent is fired for not stopping the attack. The state spends $150,000 to hire and train a new agent with additional special training, re: the nature of coyotes. People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA) protests the coyote’s relocation and files a $5 million suit against the state.

“The governor of Texas is jogging with his dog along a nature trail. A coyote jumps out and tries to attack him and his dog. The governor shoots the coyote with his state-issued pistol and keeps jogging.

“The governor spent 50 cents on a .380-caliber, hollow-point cartridge. Buzzards ate the dead coyote.

“And that, my friends, is why California is broke and Texas is not.”

Australians will identify with his description of a “nanny-state”.

via The United States Is Not Europe and Texas Ain't France: America as the Thoroughbred Economy – Dallas Fed.

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The United States Is Not Europe and Texas Ain't France

Extract from remarks by Richard W. Fisher, President of the Dallas Fed, before the Cato Institute:

….Under both Republican and Democratic leadership, we did what was economically sensible. The result was a long-lived expansion. But it ended in tears. Success led to complacency; complacency led to a tolerance and even encouragement of excess. We spent more than we could afford; our government—Republicans and Democrats alike—continued, at an accelerated pace, down the path of promising more in social programs and other spending programs than we could sustain. And on the regulatory front, we turned a collective blind eye to economic malpractice, resulting in the spectacular failure of Enron and culminating with the collapse of megabanks for which even a cursory glance at their balance sheets would have revealed, in the words of one of my colleagues, “nothing on the right was right and nothing on the left was left.”…….

via The United States Is Not Europe and Texas Ain’t France: America as the Thoroughbred Economy – Dallas Fed.

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Gold and commodities wait on the dollar

The Dollar Index rally recovered and is headed for a test of resistance at 81.00/81.50. Respect of resistance would confirm the primary down-trend. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero also signals a primary down-trend; a peak below zero would strengthen the signal.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 81 – ( 84 – 81 ) = 78

Gold and commodities await clear direction from the dollar which, in turn, is dependent on the inflation outlook. Spot Gold encountered strong resistance at $1800 per ounce*. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would signal a primary up-trend, while breakout above $1800 would confirm. Reversal below $1740 is unlikely but would warn of another correction.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1650 + ( 1650 – 1500 ) = 1800

The RJ-CRB Commodities Index has been de-listed so I am now using the DJ-UBS Commodity Index, which retraced to test support at 145/146. Respect would indicate another test of resistance at 150/152 — as suggested by recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero — while failure would warn of another test of primary support at 125.

DJ-UBS Commodity Index

Brent Crude rallied off support at $108 per barrel and is headed for another test of $117. Breakout would advance to the 2012 high of $125/$126. The small 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero suggests a primary up-trend.

ICE Brent Crude Afternoon Markers

* Target calculation: 117 + ( 117 – 108 ) = 126

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US: Double top threatened

The S&P 500 respected resistance at 1475 and is testing support at 1430. The Dow displays a similar formation with support at 13300. Breakout below 1430 would complete a double top, warning of a correction.  Reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates rising selling pressure. Respect of support is unlikely but would suggest an advance to the upper trend channel.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1420 + ( 1420 – 1280 ) = 1560

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Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo Calls for Cap on Bank Size – WSJ.com

By VICTORIA MCGRANE And ALAN ZIBEL:

“In a Philadelphia speech, Fed governor Daniel Tarullo recommended curbing banks’ growth by putting a limit on their nondeposit liabilities, which are sources of funding for operations that go beyond consumer deposits. The idea takes direct aim at the biggest U.S. banks, including J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp., Goldman Sachs and Citigroup Inc., all of which rely heavily on such funding. Firms outside of this tier make much greater use of regular deposits…..”

Comment:~ Rather than placing a fixed size limit on too-big-to-fail banks, it may be more effective to raise capital adequacy ratios and/or leverage ratios for banks above a certain size — to discourage further growth. There may well be advantages, such as economies of scale, that enable large banks to deliver better pricing to their customers — and justify their size — but we need to guard against systemic risks. Rather than setting a size limit, higher ratios would ensure that large banks are well capitalized to withstand systemic shocks.

via Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo Calls for Cap on Bank Size – WSJ.com.

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Failing History – By Amy Zegart | Foreign Policy

By AMY ZEGART

The more important and overlooked lesson…. is that the structure of the U.S. intelligence system made a tough job nearly impossible. Although the CIA was created in 1947 to prevent another Pearl Harbor, the agency has never really been central. Intelligence agencies in the State, War, Navy, and Justice departments hobbled the CIA from its earliest days to protect their own turf. As a result, in 1962 intelligence reporting and analysis about Cuba was handled by half a dozen agencies with different missions, specialties, incentives, security clearance levels, access to information, and no common boss with the power to knock bureaucratic heads together short of the president. In this bureaucratic jungle, signals of Khrushchev’s true intentions — and there were several — got dispersed and isolated instead of consolidated and amplified to sound the alarm.

Sound familiar? Before 9/11, this same fragmentation kept U.S. intelligence agencies from seizing 23 different opportunities to disrupt the terrorist plot…….

via Failing History – By Amy Zegart | Foreign Policy.

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Iran Lawmakers Press Ahmadinejad on Economy – WSJ.com

By BENOÎT FAUCON

The rial has shed about 25% of its value against the dollar this month amid mounting sanctions aimed at halting Iran’s nuclear program. The sudden decline in the rial last week, the latest leg in a yearlong decline, prompted Tehran’s first major riots in two years and a crackdown on informal money changers. The situation appeared to have stabilized Saturday as Tehran’s bazaar—a key indicator of Iran’s business climate—reopened after closing for the second half of last week. But in an indication the turmoil may not be over, many money changers refused to trade Sunday, either out of fear of arrest or because of a refusal to comply with a government order imposing a fixed dollar rate……

via Iran Lawmakers Press Ahmadinejad on Economy – WSJ.com.

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Australia: ASX 200 breakout

The ASX 200 broke through long-term resistance at 4450, signaling a primary up-trend with an initial target of 4900*. Rising troughs on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate buying pressure. Retracement to test the new support level remains likely, however, in the next few weeks.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4450 + ( 4450 – 4000 ) = 4900

The hourly chart reflects buying pressure, with initial retracement to 4475 after the breakout, instead of the expected 4450. Follow-through above 4500 confirms a strong breakout. At some point in the medium term we are still likely to see a test of the 4450 support level. Respect would confirm a healthy primary up-trend.

 

ASX 200 Index

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Asia: China, India and Japan

The Shanghai Composite Index is consolidating between 2000 and 2150. Descending 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of long-term selling pressure. Respect of resistance at 2150 is likely and breakout below 2000 would signal a decline to 1800*.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2150 – ( 2500 – 2150 ) = 1800

Shenzhen Composite Index is testing primary support at 800. Again, descending 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates long-term selling pressure. Resistance at 900 is likely to be respected, while breakout below primary support would offer a target of 600*.

Shenzhen Composite Index

* Target calculation: 800 – (1000 – 800 ) = 600

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is testing support at 8650/8700. Respect would indicate a rally to 9200, while failure would complete a double top reversal, signaling a test of primary support at 8200. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests medium-term buying pressure but the long-term picture remains negative. Breach of 8200 would signal a primary down-trend with an initial target of 7200*.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 8200 – ( 9200 – 8200 ) = 7200

South Korea’s Seoul Composite Index is consolidating between 1950 and 2000. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Breakout above 2000 is likely, followed by a test of the year’s high at 2050.

Seoul Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2050 + ( 2050 – 1900 ) = 2200

India’s Sensex is retracing to test the new support level at 18500. Respect would signal a strong up-trend, but even retracement to 18000 would not be cause for concern. Rising troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate buying pressure. Follow-through above 19000 would signal an advance to 21000*.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 18.5 + ( 18.5 – 16.0 ) = 21.0

Singapore’s Straits Times Index retreated from resistance at 3100. Expect another test of support at 3000; confirmed if short-term support at 3050 is breached. Recovery above 3100 would confirm an advance to 3300 — as would a 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero.

Singapore Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2700 ) = 3300

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The unemployment surprise

Headline unemployment may be falling but this extract from John Mauldin summarises the US predicament:

We are employing almost 5% fewer people as a percentage of our population than we were at the beginning of 2008. That means our real unemployment-to-population level is well over 12%. So we’re not even close to where we were in 1999, during the last year of the Clinton administration. And that doesn’t take into account the 50% of college graduates who are underemployed. A significant part of the problem is simply the fact that we are trying to recover from a deleveraging recession. The data suggests that such recoveries may take 10 years. For Japan it is more than 20 years, and counting.

The unemployment surprise (pdf).

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