Colin Twiggs, Author at the patient investor

November 6, 2012

Is China more legitimate than the West? | BBC

Economist Martin Jacques, author of When China Rules the World, sings the praises of China in BBC Point of View.

“Even though China is still a poor developing country, its state, I would argue, is the most competent in the world. Take infrastructure – the importance of which is belatedly now being recognised in the West. Here, China has no peers…….. we are in a new ball game. With the Western economies in a profound mess and with China’s startling rise, the competence of the state can no longer be ignored. Our model is in crisis. Theirs has been delivering the goods.”

Patrick Chovanec has a different assessment:

“China’s economic miracle was result of govt getting out of way and letting people improve their lives, not planning by all-seeing mandarins.”

China is a developing country, with rapid growth fueled by massive infrastructure investment and strong exports. The country faces diminishing returns on infrastructure investment and dwindling exports — not only from an economic slow-down in the West but from rising wages as the country attempts to boost internal consumption as an antidote to the middle-income trap that is already threatening growth in its richer provinces.

China also faces push-back from the West against trade advantages maintained by suppressing their exchange rate through vendor financing — balancing trade inflows on current account with outflows on capital account. Why else would a developing country hold more than $1 trillion of investment in US Treasuries at negative real interest rates?

Jacques claims that the Chinese state enjoys popular support:

“But does the Chinese state, you may well ask, really enjoy legitimacy in the eyes of its people? Take the findings of Tony Saich at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government……… he found that between 80 and 95% of Chinese people were either relatively or extremely satisfied with central government.”

One of the most powerful tools of an oppressive state is fear: fear of the unknown. Many of their citizens would settle for the status quo rather than risk the turmoil that accompanies change. The same is true of many autocratic regimes. That does not make them a beacon of good government.

Western democracy has many problems but the solution does not lie with increasing the size of the state, nor with greater autocracy. Rather we should examine the most successful Western democracies and learn from them. Switzerland would be a good start. Their well-managed economy enjoys low unemployment, a skilled labor force, and GDP per capita among the highest in the world — 70% above the US. The stable democratic government runs with a strong tradition of consensus among political parties, while citizens hold a collective right of veto over government policy. The country boasts a pristine environment with minimal pollution, a strong human rights record — without oppression of its citizens or minorities — and no territorial disputes with its neighbors.

Which state would you say is the most competent?

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

November 5, 2012

Bank of England should leave forecasting to Ladbrokes « The Market Monetarist

The Market Monetarist makes a novel suggestion as to how to avoid central banks from making biased forecasts:

“…..even better as I have suggested numerous times that the central bank simply set-up a prediction market. In Britain that would be extremely easy – I don’t think there is a country in the world with so many bookmakers. The Bank of England could simply ask a company like Ladbrokes or a similar company to set-up betting markets for key macro economic variables – such as inflation and nominal GDP. It would be extremely cheap and the forecast created from such prediction market would likely be at least as good as what is presently produced by the otherwise clever staff at the BoE.”

That could work …..until punters learn that the bets they place indirectly influence central bank monetary policy. It might pay market participants to place large bets on low or high inflation if they stand to benefit from the central bank response.

via Bank of England should leave forecasting to Ladbrokes « The Market Monetarist.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

November 5, 2012

Explain the disease to help US citizens – FT.com

This must-read opinion by Richard Koo explains the impact US private sector saving — a staggering 8 per cent of gross domestic product — has on the US economy.

“….. if left unattended, the economy will continuously lose aggregate demand equivalent to the unborrowed savings. In other words, even though repairing balance sheets is the right and responsible thing to do, if everyone tries to do it at the same time a deflationary spiral will result. It was such a deflationary spiral that cost the US 46 per cent of its GDP from 1929 to 1933.”

via Explain the disease to help US citizens – FT.com.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

November 5, 2012

The Output Gap: A “Potentially” Unreliable Measure of Economic Health?

Excerpt from a newsletter by Elise A. Marifian, Research Analyst at the St. Louis Fed, describing problems with calculation of the hypothetical output gap and how this can lead to incorrect monetary policy:

Some economists question the reliability of potential output and, therefore, output gap measures. For instance, as James Bullard noted in 2009, if calculations had considered the housing boom and bust, then potential GDP and output gap measurements would have been smaller than they appeared…….. Gavin (2012) shows that the output gap calculations for 2003-12 are reduced significantly when 2011 estimates of potential GDP are used in place of 2007 estimates. If our economy is improving faster than current output gap measurements suggest, then monetary policy intended to boost the economy could produce too much stimulation, thereby fueling inflation once the economy begins to pick up steam.

via Page One Economics – St. Louis Fed.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

November 5, 2012

Conservatives dominate latest line-up for new Communist Party leadership | South China Morning Post

The Politburo Standing Committee is likely to be packed with conservatives, omitting two reform-minded protégés of party general secretary Hu Jintao. A conservative line-up will dash hopes for bold political reforms.

via Conservatives dominate latest line-up for new Communist Party leadership | Shi Jiangtao | South China Morning Post.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

November 5, 2012

Australian court finds S&P liable for ratings opinion | Bloomberg

An Australian judge has found S&P [MHP] liable for its opinion in assigning AAA ratings to two ABN Amro structured debt issues in 2006, which lost over 90% of value during the GFC — the first time a ratings agency has been held liable for such an opinion.

S&P was “misleading and deceptive” in its rating of two structured debt issues in 2006, Federal Court Justice Jayne Jagot said in her ruling released today in Sydney.

via McGraw-Hill Plummets After Australian Court Ruling – Bloomberg.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

November 5, 2012

Treasury yields warn more of the same

Inflation has fallen over the last quarter-century, so one would expect to find Treasury yields have fallen, but there is more than just benign inflation at work. The Fed has also been suppressing long-term interest rates, with QE1, QE2, Operation Twist and now QE3.

10-year Treasury Yields

The yield on 10-year Treasuries is now below the Fed’s long-term inflation target of 2 percent, offering savers a negative return on investment unless they are prepared to take on risk. The Fed’s aim is to induce investors to take on more risk, in the hope that increased capital spending will stimulate employment and lead to a recovery. But they risk leading savers into another disaster, with falling earnings or rising yields ending in capital losses.

Corporations are reluctant to expand and will remain so until they see a sustainable increase in consumption. Fueled by new jobs — not short-term credit. Low interest rates without job growth could cause another speculative bubble, with too much money chasing too few opportunities.

Without jobs, no monetary policy is likely to succeed.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

November 4, 2012

Australia: Falling job ads

ANZ job ads fell 4.6 percent in October after a 3.9 percent fall in September. The index is down 15 percent over the last year.

From ANZ:

“The ANZ job advertisement series measures the number of jobs advertised in the major daily newspapers and Internet sites covering the capital cities each month. It has historically proved to be a very good indicator of future labour market conditions and thus, is extensively relied upon for forecasting employment growth.”

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

November 4, 2012

WPR Article | Sudan May Become Hot Spot for Iran-Israel Tensions

Catherine Cheney refers to a suspected Israeli airstrike on a munitions factory in Khartoum, Sudan. She quotes Katherine Zimmerman from the American Enterprise Institute:

“Sudan has served as Iran’s toehold on the African continent and has provided sanctuary to Iranian proxy groups, as well as al-Qaida operatives, and serves as a key conduit for Iran’s arms smuggling network supporting Hamas in Gaza…..”

If Israel did in fact conduct the reported airstrike in Khartoum, [Zimmerman] said, it could be an early indicator of escalating hostilities between Israel and Iran….

via WPR Article | Sudan May Become Hot Spot for Iran-Israel Tensions.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

November 4, 2012

Nationalbanken Defends Sub-Zero Bemoaned by Banks | Bloomberg

Peter Levring and Frances Schwartzkopff write that Denmark’s central bank has taken an unusual step to defend the krone from capital inflows similar to those experienced earlier by Switzerland.

The central bank has kept its deposit rate at minus 0.2 percent since July, in an effort to fight off a capital influx and maintain the krone’s peg to the euro.

Deposits held at the central bank are charged a fee of 0.2%, rather than paid interest as in the US.

At the same time, the industry is still paying its customers to hold their deposits in an effort to attract stable funding and reduce reliance on wholesale financing. That’s turned deposit banking in Denmark into a losing business.

The measure would encourage banks to increase lending, loosening credit standards to avoid the charge on excess reserves. It would also reduce the rate paid on call deposits, while increasing bank competition for more stable time deposits.

via Nationalbanken Defends Sub-Zero Bemoaned by Banks: Nordic Credit – Bloomberg.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.