Colin Twiggs, Author at the patient investor

November 12, 2012

UK: Bank break-up an option if ring-fence fails | Vickers

Matt Scuffham and Steve Slater write:

Britain could force banks to fully separate their retail operations from riskier areas if lenders fail to implement a “ring-fence” that sufficiently safeguards taxpayers or improves behavior, the architect of the plan said on Monday.

The Independent Commission on Banking, chaired by Sir John Vickers, recommends that UK banks “ring-fence” their retail operations to protect customers from riskier investment banking activities.

Andy Haldane, the Bank of England’s financial stability director, commented last week that ring-fencing would only work if the retail operations have a separate management, pay structure and balance sheet.

via Bank break-up an option if ring-fence fails: Vickers | Reuters.

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

November 12, 2012

Europe tests support

Today we look at the long-term view, with monthly charts. Germany’s Dax closed below 7200, warning of a correction to the rising trendline. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow oscillating above zero indicates buying pressure. Respect of the rising trendline would indicate a primary advance. Breakout above 7600 would confirm, offering a target of 8000*.

DAX Index

* Target calculation: 7000+ ( 7000 – 6000 ) = 8000

Reversal of the Madrid General Index below 760 would warn of a correction. Respect of 700 would be bullish but a test of 600 is more likely. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero, while unlikely, would also be a bullish sign.

Madrid General Index

The FTSE 100 found resistance at 6000 and is likely to re-test the rising trendline. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow oscillating above zero indicates long-term buying pressure. Respect of the trendline would indicate another primary advance, while breakout above 6100 would offer a long-term target of 6750*. Penetration of the trendline is less likely, but would test primary support at 5250.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 6000 + ( 6000 – 5250 ) = 6750

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

November 12, 2012

Canada: TSX Composite ranging

The TSX Composite monthly chart shows the market ranging between 11000 and 12800. Oscillation of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero reflects buying support at 11000. Downward breakout is unlikely, while recovery above 12800 would offer a target of 14000*.

TSX Composite Index

* Target calculation: 12500 + ( 12500 – 11000 ) = 14000

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

November 12, 2012

US losing momentum

The S&P 500 found short-term support at 1370 after penetrating the rising trendline on a weekly chart. Loss of momentum warns that a top is forming. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would strengthen the signal. Breach of support would test the primary level at 1270.

S&P 500 Index

Note how the S&P 500 lately moves in increments of fifty: 1270, 1320, 1370, 1420, 1470…….

The Nasdaq 100 similarly penetrated its rising trendline — shown here on a monthly chart — warning that a top is forming. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum (not shown) is below zero, strengthening the signal. Breach of primary support at 2450 would confirm the primary down-trend signaled by bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. Respect of primary support is unlikely, but would indicate another advance.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2400 – ( 2800 – 2400 ) = 2000

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

November 11, 2012

Taking the leverage out of economic growth | Reuters

Edward Hadas points out that long-term credit growth has exceeded growth in nominal GDP (real GDP plus inflation) in the US and Europe for some time. Not only does this fuel a credit bubble but it leads to a build up of inflationary pressure within the economy. If not evident in consumer prices it is likely to emerge as an asset bubble.

For the last two decades, accelerating credit has been closely correlated with the change in GDP – both in the United States and the euro zone. GDP growth tended to speed up shortly after the rate of credit growth increased, and slowed down after credit growth started to decrease.

This correlation implies there is an equilibrium rate of credit growth – the rate that corresponds to the long-term pace of nominal GDP growth. Though the pace of credit growth can vary from year to year, over time private debt and nominal GDP have to expand at the same rate for overall leverage to stay constant. That’s not what happened in the past two decades. Since 1990, Deutsche found a significant gap between credit and GDP growth in the United States and the euro zone.

In both, the neutral rate of credit growth – the rate associated with the economy’s long-term growth rate – was 7 percent. Those long-term nominal GDP growth rates were lower: 4.8 percent in the United States and 4 percent in the euro zone. In a single year, the difference of 2-3 percentage points doesn’t have much effect. Over a generation, though, it leads to a massive increase in the ratio of private debt to GDP.

The gap between growth in Domestic Debt and Nominal GDP widened in 2004/5 during the height of the property bubble and has narrowed to near zero since 2010.
Domestic Debt Growth Compared to GDP Growth
Hopefully the Fed have learned their lesson and maintain this course in future.

via Analysis & Opinion | Reuters.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

November 11, 2012

Why The Taliban Shot The Schoolgirl | The New Republic

Leon Wieseltier writes on the shooting of Pakistani schoolgirl Malala Yousafzai:

Over here, the obscene attack has been regarded mainly from the standpoint of the global campaign for the education of girls. Malala Yousafzai is an eloquent and renowned advocate for girls’ schools. About the necessity and the nobility of her cause there can be no doubt. After all, she scared the Taliban………

“If anyone thinks that Malala was targeted because of education,” declared the Taliban, in a statement cited by Dawn, “that is absolutely wrong, and propaganda of media. Malala was targeted because of her pioneer role in preaching secularism and so called enlightened moderation.”

This is not just a struggle for gender equality, although suppression of women in places like Pakistan defies basic human rights. This as a struggle for secularism. Religious sects who seek to impose their dogma on society have no place in a modern world.

via Why The Taliban Shot The Schoolgirl | The New Republic.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

November 11, 2012

Europe’s Populists at the Gate by Barry Eichengreen – Project Syndicate

Barry Eichengreen writes:

In focusing on summit declarations and promises of far-reaching reforms of EU institutions, investors are missing the real risk: the collapse of public support for, or at least public acquiescence to, the austerity policies required to work down heavy debt burdens – and for the governments pursuing these policies. Mass anti-austerity protests are one warning sign. Another is growing popular support for neo-Nazi movements like Golden Dawn, now the third-largest political party in Greece.

The rise to power of a “rejectionist” European government – that is, one that unilaterally rejects the policy status quo – would immediately bring the crisis to a head…….

via Europe’s Populists at the Gate by Barry Eichengreen – Project Syndicate.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

November 11, 2012

Why Investors Shouldn’t Expect Much Euro Zone Reform | Institutional Investor

David Turner writes:

Most economists think deregulation is, in the long term, good for these countries’ economies, and hence for the sustainability of their sovereign debt markets. The economic case for pressing ahead with liberalization is strong. Can institutional investors therefore look forward to a fast pace of growth across the entire euro zone, boosted by deregulation?

The answer is “no,” for several reasons.

Experience shows that politicians will continue pressing ahead with reform only if the markets take them by the heels to dangle them over the precipice……..

via Why Investors Shouldn’t Expect Much Euro Zone Reform | Institutional Investor.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

November 11, 2012

Nomura's fresh alert on a Chinese hard landing | Telegraph Blogs

Ambrose Evans Pritchard writes:

Nomura’s early warning signal for the Chinese financial system – the China Stress Index – is flashing amber again…….Its case against China: “overinvestment and excessive credit; a rudimentary monetary policy architecture; too many privileges for state-owned enterprises; unintended consequences of financial liberalisation; the Lewis turning point; and growing pains from worsening demographics and increasing strains on natural resources”……..

via Nomura's fresh alert on a Chinese hard landing – Telegraph Blogs.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

November 10, 2012

What Good Are Republicans if They Can't Protect Us from Class Warfare? | Jim Powell | Cato Institute: Commentary

Jim Powell of the Cato Institute gives his view on why Romney lost the election:

Romney lost for several reasons. The bulk of his primary advertising seems to have been spent attacking opponents, rather than defining himself, with the consequence that by the time the primaries were over, his reputation was a blank slate as far as the general public was concerned — an irresistible target for Obama’s early advertising blitz that defined him as an out-of-touch rich guy who destroyed American jobs. Romney was on the defensive from the get-go……

via What Good Are Republicans if They Can't Protect Us from Class Warfare? | Jim Powell | Cato Institute: Commentary.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.