Author: Colin Twiggs

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Forex: Euro, Pound Sterling, Canadian Loonie, Australian Dollar and Japanese Yen

The Euro broke out above its trend channel and resistance at $1.2750 on the daily chart to signal a primary up-trend. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero confirms. Target for the advance is the 2012 high of $1.35*.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.275 + ( 1.275 – 1.20 ) = 1.35

Pound Sterling is correcting to support around €1.22 against the Euro. Breach of the rising trendline would warn that a top is forming, while retreat of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would indicate a primary down-trend.

Pound Sterling/Euro

Canada’s Loonie is retracing to test the new support level after breaking above resistance against the greenback at $1.02.  Breakout confirms the primary up-trend indicated by long-term bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum. Target for the advance is $1.08*.

Canadian Loonie/Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 1.02 +( 1.02 – 0.96 ) = 1.08

The Aussie Dollar is testing resistance at $1.06 against the greenback. The 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero signals a primary up-trend. Breakout above $1.06 would confirm.  Expect resistance at $1.075/$1.08, but target for an advance would be $1.10*.

Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 1.06 + ( 1.06 – 1.02 ) = 1.10

I commented a few days ago that apart from a bad case of Dutch Disease —  where capital inflows and increased revenues from resources projects drive up the exchange rate and harm other export industries — the Australian dollar is at risk of developing “Swiss Disease” — where flight to a safe haven currency also drives up the  exchange rate, destroying local export industries. Professor Warwick McKibbin has a point:

“When a portfolio shift into Australian currency is observed, the exchange rate change should be completely offset so the shock only affects the money markets rather than the real economy. If the shock cannot be observed precisely then the central bank should “lean against the wind”, that is intervene to slow down the extent of appreciation of the exchange rate.”

The RBA should be selling dollars to protect local export industries from rapid appreciation of the currency.

The Aussie Dollar is headed for resistance at ¥83.50 against the Japanese Yen. Recovery of 63-Day Twiggs Momentum above zero indicates a primary up-trend. Breakout would signal an advance to ¥88*.

Aussie Dollar/Japanese Yen

* Target calculation: 84 + ( 84 – 80 ) = 88

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NYSE to Pay $5 Million Penalty to SEC – WSJ.com

By CHAD BRAY

NYSE Euronext NYX +2.23% agreed to pay a $5 million penalty to settle allegations by the Securities and Exchange Commission that technology issues at the New York Stock Exchange gave some customers an “improper head start” on trading information. The case marks the first time the SEC has ever brought a case that resulted in a monetary penalty against an exchange.

via NYSE to Pay $5 Million Penalty to SEC – WSJ.com.

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The impact of QE3

Expect stocks and commodities to rally – especially gold.

The S&P 500 followed through above 1440, confirming the primary advance to 1560*.

Index

* Target calculation: 1420 + ( 1420 – 1280 ) = 1560

Spot gold broke through short-term resistance at 175, headed for a test of $1800/ounce*.

Index

* Target calculation: 1650 + ( 1650 – 1500 ) = 1800

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Fed to Buy More Bonds in Bid to Spur Economy – WSJ.com

By KRISTINA PETERSON, JON HILSENRATH and MICHAEL S. DERBY:

After months of careful signaling, the Fed’s policy-making committee said it would buy $40 billion each month of agency mortgage-backed securities on an open-ended basis and said it could extend those purchases and buy additional assets if the job market doesn’t improve.

“If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until such improvement is achieved,” the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement issued at the end of its two-day meeting.

via Fed to Buy More Bonds in Bid to Spur Economy – WSJ.com.

I guess I was wrong about the Fed holding off until after the election.

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WSJ: China’s Solyndra Economy – Business Insider

By PATRICK CHOVANEC

On Aug. 3, the owner of Chengxing Solar Company leapt from the sixth floor of his office building in Jinhua, China. Li Fei killed himself after his company was unable to repay a $3 million bank loan it had guaranteed for another Chinese solar company that defaulted. One local financial newspaper called Li’s suicide “a sign of the imminent collapse facing the Chinese photovoltaic industry” due to overcapacity and mounting debts.

President Barack Obama has held up China’s investments in green energy and high-speed rail as examples of the kind of state-led industrial policy that America should be emulating. The real lesson is precisely the opposite. State subsidies have spawned dozens of Chinese Solyndras that are now on the verge of collapse.

via WSJ: China’s Solyndra Economy – Business Insider.

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Household Income Falls to Lowest Point Since 1995

By YUVAL ROSENBERG, The Fiscal Times:

Median household incomes adjusted for inflation fell 1.5 percent to $50,054. That’s 8.1 percent lower than it had been in 2007, the year before the recession, and almost 9 percent lower than the peak income level reached in 1999. The last time median household income was lower was 1995 – meaning it’s been a lost decade and a half for Americans looking to get ahead.

The gross domestic product has gone from $7.4 trillion to $15.1 trillion in current-dollar terms over that time, suggesting that families have fallen behind even as the economy has expanded.

via Household Income Falls to Lowest Point Since 1995.

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Dollar down-trend, gold and commodities rally

The Dollar Index broke primary support at 81.00 and the rising trendline on the weekly chart, signaling reversal to a primary down-trend. Fall of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero strengthens the signal. Expect retracement to test the new resistance level at 81.00/82.00. Respect is likely and would confirm the primary down-trend.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 81 – ( 84 – 81 ) = 78

Spot Gold continues its advance toward $1800 per ounce*. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero indicates a primary up-trend.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1650 + ( 1650 – 1500 ) = 1800

The 4-hour chart shows gold advancing in even steps of $30: from $1590 to $1630, $1660, $1690, and $1720. Each sharp jump is followed by several days consolidation, before another breakout. Occasional false starts — above $1700 — and reversals — below $1650 — keep traders on their toes, but this is a strong trend and should yield good results. False breaks at $1600, $1650 and $1700 remind us to be vigilant at $1750.

Spot Gold 4-Hour Chart

The Gold Bugs Index, representing un-hedged gold stocks, broke out of its double-bottom to signal a primary advance to 530*. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero strengthens the signal.

Gold Bugs Index

* Target calculation: 460 + ( 460 – 390 ) = 530

The CRB Commodities Index is also rising in response to the weaker dollar. Recovery of 63-Day Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests a primary up-trend. Expect a test of the 2012 high at 325.

CRB Non-Energy Commodities Index

Brent Crude continues to consolidate between $112 and $116 per barrel. Upward breakout would test $126. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum recovery above zero strengthens the bull signal. Reversal below $112 is unlikely, but would signal another test of support at $100.

ICE Brent Crude Afternoon Markers

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Australia: Company tax payments down almost 40%

David Uren from The Australian, as quoted by Mark the Graph:

Last week’s national accounts show company tax payments have fallen from an all-time peak of 6.2 per cent of gross domestic product in 2007 as Peter Costello delivered his last budget, to just 3.8 per cent in the June quarter. This is the lowest share since September 1996, when Costello delivered his first budget. It is less than during the global financial crisis and erodes all the gains in corporate taxation tapped by both governments to finance personal tax cuts, increased family benefits, higher pensions, greater education spending and much more during the past 16 years. No wonder the budget is in deficit.

View some great charts from the National Accounts at Mark the Graph: Tax chartacular.

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