Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market.
Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.
~ Ed Seykota
Australia: ASX 200 test of 4400
The ASX 200 is retracing to test support at 4400/4450. Respect would confirm a primary advance to 4900*. But correction in US markets is likely and would cause a breach of the ASX 200 rising trendline. Respect of 4250, however, would still indicate a healthy up-trend — as would a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero.
* Target calculation: 4450 + ( 4450 – 4000 ) = 4900
Asian market update
China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing medium-term resistance at 2150. Breach of the descending trendline would suggest that a bottom is forming. Bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum also indicates that the down-trend is weakening.
* Target calculation: 2150 – ( 2500 – 2150 ) = 1800
India’s Sensex continues to test its new support level at 18500. Follow-through above 19000 would confirm the primary up-trend. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow (above zero) indicates buying pressure.
* Target calculation: 18.5 + ( 18.5 – 16.0 ) = 21.0
Japan’s Nikkei 225 is headed for another test of resistance at 9200. Breakout would indicate a rally to 10200. Oscillation of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero, however, continues to warn of selling pressure. Respect of 9200 would indicate another test of primary support at 8500.
* Target calculation: 9200 + ( 9200 – 8200 ) = 10200
Europe and FTSE testing resistance
Dow Jones Europe Index continues to consolidate between 250 and 265, testing primary resistance. Upward breakout would signal a primary advance to the 2011 high at 310. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would strengthen the signal. Reversal below 250, however, would warn of another correction.
* Target calculation: 260 + ( 260 – 210 ) = 310
The FTSE 100 is similarly consolidating below 6000. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow (above zero) indicates buying pressure. Expect strong resistance at 6000/6100. Breakout would offer a long-term target of 6750*.
* Target calculation: 6000 + ( 6000 – 5250 ) = 6750
Canada: TSX60 edging lower
The TSX 60 is edging lower and likely to test its medium-term trendline around 680. Another 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would signal a primary up-trend. Breakout above 725 would confirm.
* Target calculation: 725 + ( 725 – 640 ) = 810
US: S&P 500 correction
The S&P 500 broke support at 1420, following a trend channel breakout, both signaling a correction. Reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of renewed (medium-term) selling pressure — a peak below zero would strengthen the signal. Breach of 1400 would further strengthen the signal.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average similarly broke support at 13300 on the weekly chart. Bearish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates a weakening up-trend; reversal below zero would warn of a primary down-trend. Breach of support at 13000 — and the primary trendline — would warn that a top is forming. Recovery above 13650 is unlikely at present but would indicate an advance.
* Target calculation: 13000 + ( 13000 – 12000 ) = 14000
Politics Makes Us Worse | Aaron Ross Powell, Trevor Burrus | Libertarianism.org
Excerpt from an opinion by Aaron Ross Powell and Trevor Burrus:
Oddly, many believe that political decisionmaking is an egalitarian way of allowing all voices to be heard. Nearly everyone can vote, after all, and because no one has more than one vote, the outcome seems fair.
But outcomes in politics are hardly ever fair. Once decisions are given over to the political process, the only citizens who can affect the outcome are those with sufficient political power……
The black-and-white aspect of politics also encourages people to think in black-and-white terms……. Nuances of differences in opinions are traded for stark dichotomies that are largely fabrications. Thus, we get the “no regulation, hate the environment, hate poor people” party and the “socialist, nanny-state, hate the rich” party—and the discussions rarely go deeper than this…….
via Politics Makes Us Worse | Aaron Ross Powell, Trevor Burrus | Libertarianism.org.
Australia: Submarine folly
The Australian government is poised to commit to building 12 new diesel submarines at a cost of $40 billion without even considering the option of more efficient, more powerful, nuclear-powered alternatives.
Simon Cowan, author of Future Submarine Project Should Raise Periscope for Another Look, released today by The Centre for Independent Studies, says the government risks repeating the mistakes of the current Collins Class submarines, with high running costs and reliability issues.
“Australia needs world-class submarines and the US Virginia Class looks like the best option.”
“Nuclear-powered submarines are superior in almost every way to diesel-powered submarines – they can travel further, faster and stay deployed for longer, and they have more powerful weapons, systems and sensors.”
“However, the government has refused to consider nuclear-powered submarines for reasons that don’t stack up.”
“Safety considerations are important when talking about nuclear power,” Cowan notes, “but the safety record of the US Virginia Class is flawless. These subs don’t carry nuclear weapons and never need refuelling – and if Australia leases them from the United States, the US could dispose of spent nuclear material.”
“Australia could also save more than $10 billion by leasing eight Virginia Class submarines and up to $750 million a year on operational and maintenance costs as well.”
via Axe dud subs and look to nuclear option, says new CIS report.
Financial ecosystems can be vulnerable too – FT.com
By Robert May
[Andy Haldane, Financial Stability Director of the Bank of England] argues that complexity may obscure more than it illuminates. He illustrates this by comparing predictions about the chances of failure for a sample of 100 global banks in 2006, based on simple leverage ratios (assets/equity) with the corresponding complex, Basel III-style risk-weighted one. The simple metric wins decisively.
The Myth That Screwed Up 50 Years of U.S. Foreign Policy – By Leslie H. Gelb | Foreign Policy
By Leslie H. Gelb
What people came to understand about the Cuban missile crisis — that JFK succeeded without giving an inch — implanted itself in policy deliberations and political debate, spoken or unspoken. It’s there now, all these decades later, in worries over making any concessions to Iran over nuclear weapons or to the Taliban over their role in Afghanistan. American leaders don’t like to compromise, and a lingering misunderstanding of those 13 days in October 1962 has a lot to do with it.
In fact, the crisis concluded not with Moscow’s unconditional diplomatic whimper, but with mutual concessions. The Soviets withdrew their missiles from Cuba in return for U.S. pledges not to invade Fidel Castro’s island and to remove Jupiter missiles from Turkey……
via The Myth That Screwed Up 50 Years of U.S. Foreign Policy – By Leslie H. Gelb | Foreign Policy.