Colin Twiggs, Author at the patient investor

December 4, 2012

Australia: ASX 200 retreats

The ASX 200 found resistance at 4540 after a strong rally. Reversal below 4500 would indicate retracement to test support at 4450. Breach of the falling trendline indicates the correction is over. Respect of 4450 would confirm. A 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would signal medium-term buying pressure. Breakout above 4580 would indicate a primary advance to 4800*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4580 + ( 4580 – 4350 ) = 4810

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

December 4, 2012

Asia: India strengthens

India’s Sensex broke through 19000 to confirm an advance to 20000*. Oscillation of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicates long-term buying pressure.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 19 + ( 19 – 18 ) = 20

Singapore’s Straits Times Index is testing resistance at 3100. Breakout would indicate a test of the upper trend channel at 3260*. Respect would test the lower channel at 2900. The 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero suggests a primary advance.

Singapore Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 3100 + ( 3100 – 2940 ) = 3260

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index is retracing to test the new support level at 9200/9300. Respect would confirm an advance to 10200*. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum suggests a primary up-trend; look for a trough above zero to confirm.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 9200 + ( 9200 – 8200 ) = 10200

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

December 4, 2012

China: Controlled descent

China’s Shanghai Composite Index monthly chart displays controlled descent rather than free-fall, declining in layers of roughly 200 points since early 2010. After breaking support at 2000, expect a decline to 1800*. Oscillation of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero reflects the primary down-trend. Recovery above 2000 is most unlikely but would suggest a bear trap.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2000 – ( 2200 – 2000 ) = 1800

The Shenzhen Composite Index offers a target of 600* after breaking support at 800 on the monthly chart. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates selling pressure.

Shenzhen Composite Index

* Target calculation: 800 – ( 1000 – 800 ) = 600

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index respected resistance at 22000. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure. Reversal below 21000 would indicate a test of the rising trendline at 20000. Recovery above 22000 is unlikely at present but would signal an advance to 24000*

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 22 + ( 22 – 20 ) = 24

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

December 3, 2012

Europe: DAX at 7500

Germany’s DAX is testing resistance at 7500 but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure. Breakout would signal an advance to 8000*, while respect of 7500 would indicate another test of primary support at 7000. Reversal below 7000 is unlikely but would warn that a top is forming.

DAX Index

* Target calculation: 7500+ ( 7500 – 7000 ) = 8000

Dow Jones Europe Index is similarly testing resistance at 265. Again, bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure. Breakout above 265 would offer a target of 285*. Reversal below 245 is unlikely but would indicate a decline to 210.

Dow Jones Europe Index

* Target calculation: 265 + ( 265 – 245 ) = 285

The FTSE 100 is in a similar position: headed for a test of 6000. Breakout would signal an advance to 6400*. But bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure. Reversal below 5600 would test support at 5250.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 6000 + ( 6000 – 5600 ) = 6400

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

December 3, 2012

Canada: TSX Composite retreat

The TSX Composite retreat below 12200 on the daily chart indicates another test of medium-term support at 12000. The rally remains intact as long as support holds. Failure would re-test primary support at 11750/11800, while recovery above 12200 would test resistance at 12500. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum suggests a primary up-trend. Breakout would signal an advance to 13250*.

TSX Composite Index

* Target calculation: 12500 + ( 12500 – 11750 ) = 13250

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

December 3, 2012

Falling momentum on US indices

The S&P 500 weekly chart continues to warn of a primary down-trend, with bearish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum. Reversal of TMO below zero would strengthen the signal. Hardening of positions in fiscal cliff negotiations makes another test of primary support at 1350 seem inevitable. Breakout above 1425 would test resistance at 1475, but declining momentum suggests advance above 1475 is unlikely.

S&P 500 Index

Dow Jones Industrial Average also indicates falling momentum, with breach of the rising trendline. Respect of resistance at 13300 would re-test primary support at 12500. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero would indicate rising selling pressure.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

December 3, 2012

Noam Chomsky: “Europe’s policies make sense only on one assumption: that the goal is to try and undermine and unravel the welfare state.” | EUROPP

Noam Chomsky in an interview with EUROPP editors Stuart A Brown and Chris Gilson:

Europe’s policies [austerity during a recession] make sense only on one assumption: that the goal is to try and undermine and unravel the welfare state. And that’s almost been said. Mario Draghi, the President of the European Central Bank, had an interview with the Wall Street Journal where he said that the social contract in Europe is dead. He wasn’t advocating it, he was describing it, but that’s essentially what the policies lead to…….

Chomsky has the cart before the horse. Collapse of welfare states in Europe led to austerity — not the other way round. Joe Hockey had a slightly different take on events in Europe in his April address to the Institute of Economic Affairs:

The Age of Entitlement is over. We should not take this as cause for despair. It is our market based economies which have forced this change on unwilling participants. What we have seen is that the market is mandating policy changes that common sense and years of lectures from small government advocates have failed to achieve.

Reduction of trade barriers and shrinking of the technological advantage enjoyed by developed nations will lead to the inevitable demise of the social contract. Free competition demands efficiency. Countries cannot remain competitive while carrying burdens imposed by a welfare state.

via Five minutes with Noam Chomsky – “Europe’s policies make sense only on one assumption: that the goal is to try and undermine and unravel the welfare state.” | EUROPP.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

December 3, 2012

‘Doomsday’ For The Fiscal Cliff? | ABC News

Republicans are considering a “Doomsday Plan” if fiscal cliff talks fail. The ABC’s Jon Karl reports:

It’s quite simple: House Republicans would allow a vote on extending the Bush middle class tax cuts (the bill passed in August by the Senate) and offer the president nothing more – no extension of the debt ceiling, nothing on unemployment, nothing on closing loopholes. Congress would recess for the holidays and the president would face a big battle early in the year over the debt ceiling.

Two senior Republican elected officials say this Doomsday Plan is becoming the most likely scenario. A top GOP House leadership aide confirms the plan is under consideration, but says Speaker Boehner has made no decision on whether to pursue it.

Under one variation of the plan, House Republicans would allow a vote on extending only the middle class tax cuts and Republicans, to express disapproval at the failure to extend all tax cuts, would vote “present” on the bill, allowing it to pass entirely on Democratic votes.

By doing this, Republicans avoid taking blame for tax increases on 98 percent of income tax payers. As one senior Republican in Congress told me, “You don’t take a hostage you aren’t willing to shoot.”

This is a time for mending bridges damaged during the election. The ability of the President to unify rather than polarize the two sides of the house will be tested in the next few weeks. Let us hope that he measures up.

via ‘Doomsday’ For The Fiscal Cliff? (The Note) – ABC News.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

December 3, 2012

Obama Theatrics, Obama Reality – Business Insider

Wendy McElroy writes that we should ignore the distraction of President Obama’s flowery speeches and focus on the under-the-radar actions of regulatory agencies and regulatory czars appointed — FDR-style — directly by the president.

A Nov. 19 article in the National Review opened, “On Friday, the Environmental Protection Agency rejected petitions from the governors of Georgia, Texas, Arkansas, Delaware, Maryland, New Mexico, and North Carolina to suspend the biofuel-blending requirements established by the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program.”

The petition asked for relief from the program’s requirement to convert corn crops into ethanol. National Review explained, “The 2012 target is to blend 13.2 billion gallons of biofuel into our gasoline, a quantity that ratchets up to 13.8 billion gallons in 2013. This year, about 4.7 billion bushels, or 40% of the nation’s corn crop, will be consumed by ethanol manufacturing.” The petitioning states are economically reeling from “the worst drought in 50 years,” and the EPA czar has the power to waive the program’s requirement. She chose not to.

via Obama Theatrics, Obama Reality – Business Insider.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

December 3, 2012

Fiscal Cliff Is Just a Speed Bump on the Road to a Real Crisis | International Liberty

Dan Mitchell writes in the New York Post:

A lot of people get upset about the national debt, which is somewhere between $11 trillion and $16 trillion, depending on whether you include money the government owes itself. Those are big numbers — but if you add up the amount of money that the government is promising to spend for entitlement programs in the future and compare that figure to the amount of revenue that the government projects it will collect for those programs, the cumulative shortfall is more than $100 trillion. And that’s after adjusting for inflation. Some politicians claim this huge, baked-into-the-cake expansion of government isn’t a problem, because we can raise taxes. But that’s exactly what Europe’s welfare states tried — and it didn’t work. Simply stated, even huge tax hikes won’t stem the flow of red ink in the long run if government keeps growing faster than the private economy. This is the fiscal problem that demands attention. Absent real entitlement reform, such as block-granting Medicaid to the states, the burden of government spending will consume ever-larger shares of our economic output with each passing year.

via Explaining in the New York Post that the Fiscal Cliff Is Just a Speed Bump on the Road to a Real Crisis « International Liberty.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.