Hours worked jumped to a massive 13.5% (YoY) spike in April and GDP is expected to follow.
Jim Stock’s Weekly Economic Index predicts a similar 12.2% (YoY) spike in Q2 GDP.
Apologies for being the bearer of bad news but that spike is entirely due to base effects: the year-on-year change is measured from the pandemic low of April 2020.
In real terms, hours worked are still 3.8% below their Feb 2020 level and GDP for Q2 2021 is expected to come in at close to the peak in Q4 of 2019.
