Hours worked jumped to a massive 13.5% (YoY) spike in April and GDP is expected to follow.
Jim Stock’s Weekly Economic Index predicts a similar 12.2% (YoY) spike in Q2 GDP.
Apologies for being the bearer of bad news but that spike is entirely due to base effects: the year-on-year change is measured from the pandemic low of April 2020.
In real terms, hours worked are still 3.8% below their Feb 2020 level and GDP for Q2 2021 is expected to come in at close to the peak in Q4 of 2019.
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.