Initial jobless claims in the US for the 6 weeks to April 25th exceed 30 million.
That will take unemployment above 20%, with total jobs falling to levels last seen in 1997, and more job losses still to come.
Employment is the key to economic recovery. While unemployment is high, consumer spending will stay low and the economy will struggle. Companies may receive bailouts and the Fed will keep financial markets awash with liquidity but that does not help falling sales.
Be prepared. April employment numbers are going to be ugly. Expect some turbulence.
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.