It’s not a pretty sight. The ASX 200 fell close to 10% in a single week. The severity of the fall suggests that sellers are committed and buyers are scarce. Breach of support at 6400 is highly likely and would offer a target of 5400 (a 25% draw-down).
A V-shaped recovery is unlikely.
The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index broke primary support at 4100, completing a double-top reversal with a target of 3400.
The Aussie Dollar is also getting smashed, headed for a target of 64 cents after breaking support at 67.
The ASX 300 Banks index is headed for a test of 7250/7300. Breach is likely and would offer a test of 6750.
Our conclusion hasn’t changed from last week:
Threats continue to outweigh opportunities in our view and we retain a bearish view on the global and domestic economies. Our focus remains on defensive and contra-cyclical (gold) stocks.