The crude oil bounce continues but the primary trend is down. WTI Light Crude (shown here on a monthly chart) is likely to test resistance at $60/barrel, followed by another test of primary support at $45.
Weak crude tends to coincide with a weak gold price. At present the two commodities are diverging, with gold rallying as crude falls. Safe haven demand for gold, due to rising global uncertainty, is the most likely explanation.
Spot Gold is testing resistance at $1350/ounce. Breakout would signal a primary advance but gold is expected to follow oil lower in the long-term.
The All Ordinaries Gold Index broke resistance at 5400/5500, signaling an advance to 7000. Strength of the advance depends on a weaker Aussie Dollar and/or a stronger gold price in US Dollars.
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.