Nymex Light Crude is testing support at $60/barrel on the long-term rising trendline. Breach would confirm a primary down-trend with a long-term target of $45/barrel.
Crude and gold tend to rise and fall together. The long-term chart below compares gold and crude prices adjusted for inflation (CPI).
The bear rally in Gold met resistance below $1250. Reversal below support at $1180 would offer a long-term target of $1050/ounce (the 2015 low).
Low crude prices tend to strengthen the Dollar (scale inverted on the chart below).
The Dollar Index is testing resistance at 97. Breakout is likely and would further weaken demand for Gold.
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.