China’s Yuan continues to weaken while the Dollar index strengthens. Follow-through above 97 would signal another primary advance.
A strengthening Dollar would weaken demand for Gold. The bear rally is likely to meet stubborn resistance at $1250. Reversal below support at $1180 would warn of a decline to the 2015 low at $1050/ounce.
The monthly chart of Spot Silver also shows a strong down-trend, testing primary support at $13.50/ounce.
Crude oil is also showing signs of weakness, with a bearish divergence on the Trend Index. Breach of support at $65/barrel would warn of a primary down-trend.
In the long-term, gold and oil tend to rise and fall together.
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.