The ASX 300 Banks index continues to test support at 7700. Declining Trend Index warns of medium-term selling pressure. Breach of support is likely and would signal a test of primary support at 7300.
The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index is also headed for a test of primary support, at 3400. A Trend Index peak at/below zero would warn of rising selling pressure and a primary down-trend.
Commodities are already in a primary down-trend but Australian stocks are partially cushioned by a weakening Aussie Dollar.
The ASX 200 found medium-term support at 6150 but this unlikely to hold. Bearish Divergence on the Trend Index warns of medium-term selling pressure. Expect a correction to test the rising long-term trendline at 6000.
I remain cautious on Australian stocks, holding over 30% cash in the Australian Growth portfolio.
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.