The S&P 500 retreated from resistance at 2800. Retracement is modest and I expect support above the rising trendline (2700). Volatility (Twiggs 21-Day) is below 1.0%, indicating that market risk has returned to normal levels.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 is in a stronger position, making a new high at 7300, but is now likely to retrace to test the new support level at 7000. I am wary of Twiggs Money Flow as a lower peak would signal bearish divergence. A lot will depend on how buyers react at the new support level.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index, on the other hand, broke support at 3000, signaling a primary decline. Initial target is the February 2016 low at 2700.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index weakened in sympathy. Breach of support at 29000 would signal a primary down-trend.
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients.
Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.