Malcolm Gladwell tells the story of story of Konrad Kellen, a “truly great listener”:
Everyone believed what [Leon Goure, US expert who believed the Vietcong were demoralised and about to give up] said, with one exception – Konrad Kellen. He read the same interviews and reached the exact opposite conclusion.
Years later, he would say that his rethinking began with one memorable interview with a senior Vietcong captain. He was asked very early in the interview if he thought the Vietcong could win the war, and he said no.
But pages later, he was asked if he thought that the US could win the war, and he said no.
The second answer profoundly changes the meaning of the first. He didn’t think in terms of winning or losing at all, which is a very different proposition. An enemy who is indifferent to the outcome of a battle is the most dangerous enemy of all.
Goure’s analysis is a classic case of confirmation bias: he sought evidence to support his preconceived ideas, rather than gathering and evaluating evidence objectively. This applies as much to investing as it does to war.
Read more BBC News – Viewpoint: Could one man have shortened the Vietnam War?.