Westpac reports that the December quarter saw net inflows of:
- Debt $10.5bn, up from $7.1bn in Q3 (prev $7.6bn)
- Equity $5.1bn, more modest than Q3’s $9.7bn (prev $8.8bn), but still almost twice the average pace of the past three years
- Portfolio investment $4.7bn, significantly above Q3’s $0.8bn
- Direct investment accelerated to $13.2bn.
The global scramble for yield is driving up the ASX 50. We need to beware that capital inflows are fickle and may bolt at signs of a falling Aussie dollar.
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.
Years ago foreign capital made up about 50% of the daily value of shares traded in Oz – does anyone know what is the percentage today?
The capital flows may bolt at the sign of a falling Aussie dollar, but I am thinking they might also be back while the dividends yields are where they are.
The Aussie dollar is only likely to fall when there is a capital outflow, so we are safe for the time being.