The Euro respected resistance at $1.28 and another test of medium-term support at $1.265 is likely. Breach of support would indicate a correction to $1.23.
The Aussie Dollar likewise respected resistance, at $1.04. Follow-through below $1.03 would test primary support at $1.02/$1.015. Recovery above $1.04 is unlikely but would test $1.06*. Reversal of of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would suggest a primary down-trend.
* Target calculation: 1.04 + ( 1.04 – 1.02 ) = 1.06
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.
I am betting on the US dollar to rally to create short positions in crude oil.