Gabriel Burin writes that the U.S. savings rate sank last month to its lowest since November.
“Households were only able to boost consumption in the third quarter by dipping into their savings,” said Paul Dales, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, after the Commerce Department release. “Faced with the prospect of major tax hikes in the New Year, however, they will soon become more cautious”……..
via Unsaving the U.S. economy | MacroScope.
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.
Given the current Chinese and European situations and the three straight declines in year-over-year U.S. GDP, it seems like we are going into a global recession. Consumers will pull back joining business and worsen the U.S. fall in Q1 of 13.
I am also concerned about 2013 but, as always, there is more than one possible scenario.