The Dollar Index broke primary support at 81.00 and the rising trendline on the weekly chart, signaling reversal to a primary down-trend. Fall of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero strengthens the signal. Expect retracement to test the new resistance level at 81.00/82.00. Respect is likely and would confirm the primary down-trend.
* Target calculation: 81 – ( 84 – 81 ) = 78
Spot Gold continues its advance toward $1800 per ounce*. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero indicates a primary up-trend.
* Target calculation: 1650 + ( 1650 – 1500 ) = 1800
The 4-hour chart shows gold advancing in even steps of $30: from $1590 to $1630, $1660, $1690, and $1720. Each sharp jump is followed by several days consolidation, before another breakout. Occasional false starts — above $1700 — and reversals — below $1650 — keep traders on their toes, but this is a strong trend and should yield good results. False breaks at $1600, $1650 and $1700 remind us to be vigilant at $1750.
The Gold Bugs Index, representing un-hedged gold stocks, broke out of its double-bottom to signal a primary advance to 530*. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero strengthens the signal.
* Target calculation: 460 + ( 460 – 390 ) = 530
The CRB Commodities Index is also rising in response to the weaker dollar. Recovery of 63-Day Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests a primary up-trend. Expect a test of the 2012 high at 325.
Brent Crude continues to consolidate between $112 and $116 per barrel. Upward breakout would test $126. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum recovery above zero strengthens the bull signal. Reversal below $112 is unlikely, but would signal another test of support at $100.
In this last rally on the weekly chart of the Dollar index, a two alternating corrective waves have overlapped. This overlapping violates one of Elliott wave rules for impulse wave. A corrective wave in the upward side implies a new low. I agree with your conclusion on the dollar down-trend.
Thank you