Zarathustra: The idea of this gamble is simple. With the financial crisis in 2008 hitting the developed world, it naturally affected external demand. The Chinese knew these. At the end of 2007, trade surplus accounted for more than 7.5% of GDP. Currently, the same number is at its low single digit, probably 2% or so. No longer is China’s growth driven by trade. It is now driven largely by domestic demand.
And this is where the gamble lies. The massive stimulus was meant to stimulate domestic demand for a few years, in hope that perhaps the rest of the world will recover, and hence external demand would have recovered. Or else, in hope that domestic demand will become strong enough and sustainable so that the economy no longer depends on the health of the rest of the world…..
The prognosis is justified: empty cities, broken banks, bankrupt provinces and local council, fattened government and party officials – great result eh?