The Euro retreated below support at $1.26, indicating a test of the 2010 low at $1.19/1.20. Breach of the rising trendline on 63-day Twiggs Momentum would strengthen the bear signal.
Pound Sterling is testing resistance at $1.58 against the greenback. Respect would indicate another test of primary support at $1.52. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would warn of a primary down-trend.
* Target calculation: 1.53 – ( 1.63 – 1.53 ) = 1.43
Against the Euro, Pound Sterling is in an accelerating up-trend. The gap between the recent low at €1.225 and the previous peak at €1.215 suggests strong buying pressure — as does 63-day Twiggs Momentum oscillating high above zero.
* Target calculation: 1.250 + ( 1.250 – 1.215 ) = 1.285
Canada’s Loonie is strengthening against the Aussie Dollar. Long-term bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum warns of reversal to a primary up-trend. Breakout above parity would confirm.
* Target calculation: 1.00 + ( 1.00 – 0.96 ) = 1.04
Short retracement suggests that the Aussie Dollar is, in turn, strengthening against the greenback on the Daily chart. Breakout above $1.02 (and the descending trendline) would indicate that a bottom is forming. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would suggest a primary up-trend.
* Target calculation: 1.02 + ( 1.02 – 1.00 ) = 1.04
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.
(all against the US $) Aussie is up , maybe to $1.10 – $1.15. Euro up, GBP Up. US $ down against Gold 🙂
What about the traditional link between commodities prices and the AUS dollar? Should we be looking for a resumption of that pairing?
The Aussie will no doubt still be affected by falling commodity prices but a new report by Westpac highlights the inflows on capital account, with offshore investors buying Australian government (state and federal) and corporate bonds.