The US Dollar Index respected support at 81.00 and is headed for resistance at 83.50. Breakout would offer a target of 86.00*. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum oscillating above the zero line indicates a healthy up-trend.
* Target calculation: 82 + ( 82 – 78 ) = 86
Spot Gold retreated below support at $1600/ounce. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum reversal below zero signals a primary down-trend. Breach of primary support at $1530 would confirm. Introduction of QE3 by the Fed, however, would commence a new up-trend.
* Target calculation: 1550 – ( 1800 – 1550 ) = 1300
The primary down-trend on CRB Commodities Index is unlikely to change unless we see the introduction of QE3. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero indicates a strong primary down-trend.
* Target calculation: 270 – ( 290 – 270 ) = 250
Brent Crude and Nymex WTI Light Crude both offer a target of $75 per barrel. After falling sharply over the last few months, the gap has narrowed to just over $10 per barrel — from a peak of $25 in October 2011. Rapidly expanding gas and oil reserves are driving North American prices lower, while gloomy prospects for European economies have crimped demand for Brent Crude.
* Target calculation: 100 – ( 125 – 100 ) = 75
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.