A monthly chart of the ASX 200 shows how the index tends to peak ahead of the CRB Commodities Index and Australian Dollar but then fall in step with them from there on. The ASX 200 was first to reverse direction in 2011 but commodities now lead the way. Expect Australian stocks — and the Aussie Dollar — to follow commodities lower. Breach of primary support at 3850 would offer a target of 3200*.
* Target calculation: 3800 – ( 4400 – 3800 ) = 3200
On the daily chart, breach of support at 3980/4000 would signal a test of primary support at 3850. Reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero, warning of medium-term selling pressure, increases the likelihood of a downward breakout.
* Target calculation: 4000 – ( 4150 – 4000 ) = 3850
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.
I don’t think you have a pulse on the market.
I don’t think the market has a pulse.
It definitely doesn’t have a heart, so a pulse is unlikely…
outlook doesn’t look good for ozzie
Falling commodity prices will hurt exports but we need to watch export volumes to gauge the full impact — rising export volumes would soften the blow.