The Dollar Index is testing primary resistance at 81.50 on the weekly chart. Respect of zero by the latest 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough suggests continuation of the primary up-trend. Follow-through above 82 would signal an advance to 86*.
* Target calculation: 82 + ( 82 – 78 ) = 86
Spot Gold broke support at $1550/ounce on the daily chart. Expect retracement to test the new resistance level at $1600 but a sharp fall below zero by 63-day Twiggs Momentum warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of support at $1500 would confirm, offering a long-term target of $1200*.
* Target calculation: 1500 – ( 1800 – 1500 ) = 1200
Spot Silver is testing primary support at $26/ounce. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum oscillating below zero already indicates a primary down-trend. Breach of support would offer a target of $16/ounce*.
* Target calculation: 26 – ( 36 – 26 ) = 16
Very good charts and I like your commentary.
Thanks?
Don’t you just hate it when your analysis is so punctual and accurate that every head fake in the book contradicts your assessment ?
This isn’t a dig, since I really appreciate your discipline in issuance of analyses. Just saying, quite often these days that price slips below support breifly, or above resistance breifly; and it is a source of great frustration for me (and others I’m sure).
False breaks outnumber real breaks. The only way is to wait for confirmation. Perhaps one could trade profitably by buying bearish breaks with a stop at the follow-through 🙂
Many thanks for your analysis is so punctual and accurate , very good charts and I like your commentary, , I think the volatility of the recent years has shown us that trading is best done with very short time frames.
m.samih
With short time frames, trading becomes a zero sum game: you must take money off someone else in order to profit. In the long term, there are more winners than losers as the market expands along with inflation and GDP growth.
In a downward trend take Colins advice only short that way you are trading relatively safely as all good things must come to and end logic comes into this too if we refrain from emotional trading logic and the trend will win in the end