Spot Gold broke its long-term rising trendline and support at $1600, warning of a primary down-trend. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero strengthens the signal. Failure of primary support at $1500 would confirm, offering a target of $1200*. Recovery above $1600 would indicate all bets are off.
* Target calculation: 1500 – (1800 – 1500) = 1200
The Gold Bugs Index, representing un-hedged gold stocks, has been suggesting a gold down-trend for some time.
The Dollar Index broke through resistance at 80 on the weekly chart and a 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero indicates another rally. Expect a test of 82 in the next few weeks, mirrored by a weakening gold price.
* Target calculation: 82 + ( 82 – 78 ) = 86
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.
What do you mean by “Recovery above $1600 would indicate all bets are off.” ? Do you mean if gold price is back to $1600 the primary uptrend will continue ?
Recovery above $1600 would mean that the bear signal may be false and could lead to a bear trap. Further confirmation is required before you could take this as signaling continuation of the primary up-trend.
Colin, I have been tracking the ticker $GLD for some time on stock-twits.com illustrating charts and the price action. I predicted that $GLD would break the trend line and head lower last week. I have been saying to sell the ticker since it was $175 area months ago. Your chart above shows the exact same trend line. I want to thank you for conformation and validation of my TA and of my charts.
Thank you
Michael
I have been following Colin Twiggs for well over seven years now and have found him to more reliable than any news letters I have received especially the ones that trap you. There are many platforms coming out that could make you money but the best platform is your brain Incredible charts are truly incredible with loads of information available for learning and I have picked a downward trend with the long term of around the 1200 mark also my platform is built on the information Incredible Charts has to offer and Colins news letters so have a good look at the information on education available to be confident successful traders. Good Luck everyone.
Thank you for the feedback.