Spot Gold continues its consolidation between $1600 and $1700 per ounce, while testing the long-term rising trendline. Recovery above $1700 would suggest another primary advance; confirmed if an inverted head and shoulders formation is completed by a rise above $1800. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum oscillating around zero indicates uncertainty, however, and failure of support at $1600 would warn of a long-term trend change and test the primary level at $1500.
* Target calculation: 1800 + (1800 – 1600) = 2000; 1500 – (1800 – 1500) = 1200
The US Dollar Index reflects the inverse of gold, with a potential triple bottom threatening to end the long-term down-trend on the Monthly chart. 50-Week Twiggs Momentum is oscillating around the zero line, indicating uncertainty.
On the weekly chart, the dollar has met strong resistance at 80 and reversal below support at 78 would warn of another test of the 2011 low at 73. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would strengthen the bear signal.
* Target calculation: 82 + ( 82 – 78 ) = 86; 78 – ( 82 – 78 ) = 74
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.