The Dollar Index is retracing to test primary support at 78.00 on the weekly chart. Respect of the rising trendline would signal continuation of the primary up-trend, while failure of support would warn of a down-trend to test support at 73.00. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would strengthen the bear warning.
* Target calculation: 82 + ( 82 – 78 ) = 86
Despite the weakening dollar, spot gold is headed for the long-term rising trendline on the weekly chart. Failure of support at $1600/ounce would warn that the primary trend is weakening, while failure of $1500 would signal that the trend has reversed. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum into negative territory — for the second time recently after several years above zero — already warns of a primary down-trend.
* Target calculation: 1500 – ( 1800 – 1500 ) = 1200
The 4-hour chart shows gold respecting resistance at $1700 before retreating below medium-term support at $1670. Failure of short-term support at $1655 (the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level) would test $1630 and signal continuation of the down-trend. Recovery above $1700 is unlikely but would signal respect of the long-term rising trendline (on the weekly chart above) and resumption of the primary up-trend.
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.