US markets are anticipating a quarter-end sell-off in the second half of March, driven by the tax season and Spring-cleaning of fund balance sheets. The S&P 500 Index continues to test resistance at 1370. Breakout would signal the start of another primary advance, with a target of 1450*. Reversal below 1350, however, would warn of a correction, testing support at 1300 and possibly 1250.
* Target calculation: 1300 + ( 1300 – 1150 ) = 1450
The Nasdaq 100 reached its initial target of 2650 and is due for a correction. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure. Expect retracement to test support at 2400.
* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 – 2150 ) = 2650
Dow Jones Transport Index has retraced over several weeks to test support at 5000. Respect would signal another attempt at 5600, while failure would indicate that momentum is slowing.
* Target calculation: 5000 + ( 6000 – 4500 ) = 5500
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