Brent Crude is testing medium-term support at $105/barrel. Failure is likely if the dollar continues to strengthen and would mean a test of the $99/$100 primary level. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below -5% would complete an iceberg pattern, indicating a solid primary down-trend. Breach of primary support would offer a target of $85/barrel*.
* Target calculation: 100 – ( 115 – 100 ) = 85
Roughly only 10% of an iceberg is visible at sea, with most of the ice-mass hidden below the water-line. Similarly, an “iceberg” pattern on a chart describes a situation where +/- 90% of Twiggs Momentum (or a similar indicator) is below zero with only a small peak protruding above.
CRB Commodities Index is similarly headed for a test of primary support, at 295. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum deep below zero indicates a strong primary down-trend. Failure of support would offer a target of 265*.
* Target calculation: 295 – ( 325 – 295 ) = 265
That would have a negative impact on the Aussie Dollar and Canadian Loonie which closely track commodity prices.
the fact we have is that almost all traders work with technical analysis and the markets are a result of that mindset. Gold, silver and other industry metals are still very cheap fundamentally. Until today gold, silver and platinum are the best hedge for the immanent shrinkage in FIAT money and counter faked inflation rates by governments. If you sell your precious metals now cheap to the market (because you suppose the uptrend has ended) all the banksters in FED offices and so on will buy this metals with worthless paper the have printed. We have an over supply of worthless FIAT money worldwide so please don,t be stupid and get into this trap, because the system will break this is system immanent and banksters know that very well. To shed light on that issue i suggest the following books:
G.Edward Griffin – The Creature from Jekyll Island : A Second Look at the Federal Reserve
John Perkins – Confessions of an Economic Hit Man