In other parts of the economy, early warning signs are also flashing. Capital One, one of the largest credit card issuers in the US, reported that 30-day delinquencies were rising—consumers are getting strung out again. Two days ago, the Empire State Manufacturing index came in at -8.5, in negative territory for the fifth straight month. On a very dark note, its future general business conditions sub-index, which measures expectations, fell to its lowest level since February 2009, the depth of the financial crisis. International business travel has fallen off a cliff at the end of August. And ominously, inbound port traffic is down, probably due to declining expectations for holiday sales.