US stampede

A friend at golf yesterday, who still holds a number of stocks, asked if they are likely to fall any further. My answer was that holding on to stocks in this market is like standing in front of a stampeding herd in the hope that it will stop before it reaches you. There may be a short retracement early in the week, but strong selling is expected to overwhelm buying support. On August 3rd I gave the probability of a down-turn as 75 percent. The odds are now about as close to 100 percent as you can get.

S&P 500 Index

The S&P 500 followed through below support at 1250, confirming the primary down-trend. Friday’s brief rally was swamped by further sell orders. The herd has started to move. We are beyond the tipping point.

One Reply to “US stampede”

  1. Blog is a good idea, esp on day like today (or last Friday). If haven’t done so might be good to post a link to this
    in the daily, now shorter, newsletter. Thanks for great work. Watching Europe so this helps in NYC.

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