Gold: Every cloud has a Silver lining

Long-term interest rates are declining after more dovish speeches from the Fed, with 10-year Treasury yields re-testing support at 2.0%. The opportunity cost of holding gold is low.

10-Year Treasury Yields

The Dollar Index is likely to weaken, testing primary support at 95. A weakening Dollar boosts demand for Gold.

Dollar Index

A big gain in Silver this week is likely to be followed by a similar move in Gold. The two precious metals tend to move in unison. Breakout above $16.00/ounce signals an advance to $17.50.

Spot Silver in USD

Gold is consolidating above short-term support at $1400 after a strong advance, indicating buying pressure. Another advance is likely, with a medium-term target of $1500/ounce.

Spot Gold in USD

Gold buying pressure

Long-term interest rates close to zero after inflation, with 10-year Treasury yields testing support at 2.0%, means that the opportunity cost of holding gold is minimal.

10-Year Treasury Yields

A weakening Dollar Index is expected to test primary support at 95, further boosting demand for Gold.

Dollar Index

Gold found short-term support at $1400 after a strong advance, indicating buying pressure. Respect of support at $1350/$1400 would offer a medium-term target of $1500/ounce.

Spot Gold in USD

S&P 500: Plan B

The S&P 500 is testing its all-time high at 2950. Bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow warns of secondary selling pressure. Respect of resistance is likely and would signal retracement to test support at 2750.

S&P 500

The 10-Year Treasury yield has fallen to 2.0%, indicating that the Fed is expected to cut interest rates in the second half of 2019.

10-Year Treasury yield

Stocks are still running on hope of a deal in the US-China trade dispute. Xi Jinping and Donald Trump will meet this weekend to discuss the way forward. Chinese preconditions for a trade agreement are likely to include the US lifting its ban on the sale of technology to telecommunications giant Huawei and removal of US tariffs on Chinese imports, according to The Wall St Journal. The US is unlikely to accede and chances of a deal are slim to nonexistent.

Trump doesn’t seem concerned: “My Plan B with China is to take in billions and billions of dollars a month and we’ll do less and less business with them……My plan B’s maybe my plan A.” (Bloomberg)

Plan B is the likely outcome, with a moderate impact on US corporate earnings and Fed rate cuts to keep the market on track. Risks rise while the potential upside declines. It’s a good time to be cautious.

We must recognize that as the dominant power in the world we have a special responsibility. In addition to protecting our national interests, we must take the leadership in protecting the common interests of humanity……There is no other country that can take the place of the United States in the foreseeable future. If the United States fails to provide the right kind of leadership our civilization may destroy itself. That is the unpleasant reality that confronts us.

~ George Soros: The Age of Fallibility

Gold lifted by rising Treasuries and falling Dollar

10-Year Treasury yields are testing LT support at 2.00% after falling 120 basis points (bps) since late last year.

10-Year Treasury Yield

Rising global uncertainty has caused a massive outflow from equity funds into bonds.

The Dollar Index penetrated its rising trendline, warning of a correction to test 95.

Dollar Index

Demand for Gold is boosted by lower bond yields and a lower Dollar. Spot Gold breakout above resistance at $1350 would signal a fresh advance, offering a medium-term target of $1500/ounce (short-term: $1400).

Spot Gold in USD

Gold at a watershed

Silver found short-term support at $14.50/ounce but declining Trend Index peaks indicate selling pressure and a test of primary support at $14 is likely.

Spot Silver in USD

Gold, by contrast, has found strong support at $1280/ounce, refusing to give way despite concerted selling. Breach of 1280 would signal a test of primary support at 1180 but recovery above 1300 becomes increasingly likely the longer that support holds.

Spot Gold in USD

A rising Dollar would weaken demand for Gold but the Dollar Index has met strong resistance between 97 and 98. Follow-through above 98 would signal a fresh advance but a fall below 97 would be bullish for Gold.

Dollar Index

10-Year Treasury yields have also broken support at 2.4% offering a short-term target of 2.2%. Falling Treasury yields have a depressing effect on the Dollar and boost demand for Gold (by lowering the opportunity cost).

10-Year Treasury Yield

Gold is therefore at a watershed. Breach of strong support for Gold at $1280 would be a strong bear signal but respect would be a bullish sign, suggesting another advance. Probability is still favor of the bearish scenario but the bull case is strengthening.

 

 

The eye of the storm

“On Wednesday, the US Department of Commerce added Huawei – and 70 other companies – to its “Entity List.” …. Huawei cannot buy parts or components from US companies without the explicit approval of the US government.” (Trivium China)

We are sliding towards a fully-fledged trade war. Following straight after the imposition of tariffs by both the US and China, US action against Huawei will be taken as a direct attack on Chinese industry.

The CCP is already stoking nationalist sentiment to bolster public support.

“Last night and today, CCTV replaced regularly scheduled programming with two films about the Chinese army fighting the US in the Korean War.” (Trivium China)

Market response is so far muted. On the daily chart, the S&P 500 correction is modest. Expect another test of 2800. Breach would offer a target of 2600.

S&P 500

The Nasdaq 100 retreated below its new support level at 7700 but Money Flow remains strong.

Nasdaq 100

China’s Shanghai Composite found support at 2900.

Shanghai Composite Index

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is ranging between 20000 and 24000. Expect another test of primary support at 20000.

Nikkei 225

India’s Nifty is testing support at 11000. Respect would confirm the primary up-trend.

Nifty Index

In Europe, The DJ Euro Stoxx 600 is undergoing a correction that is likely to test support at 365. But Trend Index above zero continues to signal buying support.

DJ Euro Stoxx 600

The Footsie found support at 7200, with Trend Index again signaling buying support.

FTSE 100

10-Year Treasury yields are testing support at 2.40%. One of the few clear signs that markets are growing increasingly risk averse, as demand for bonds drives down yields.

10-Year Treasury Yields

Gold retreats as the Dollar strengthens

China’s Yuan fell sharply against the Dollar on imposition of tariffs by the US. Expect a test of primary support.

Chinese Yuan/US Dollar

The Dollar index strengthened. Follow-through above 98 would signal a fresh advance. The long-term target is 100.

Dollar Index

10-Year Treasury yields are testing support at 2.40%. Breach would offer a target of 2.20%. Rate hikes are a distant memory.

10-Year Treasury Yield

Gold continues to test medium-term support at $1280/ounce. The tall shadow on this week’s candle warns of selling pressure; as does the Trend Index peak at zero. Breach of support would signal a test of primary support.

Spot Gold in USD

Silver continues to fall, heading for a test of primary support at $14. Declining Trend Index peaks indicate selling pressure.

Spot Silver in USD

Gold is likely to follow.

S&P 500: Beware the buyback blackout

We are now entering the blackout period when US corporates normally refrain from buying back stock, in the four to six-week period prior to their next earnings release. There is no outright ban on buybacks during that period but discretionary repurchases are restricted.

Zerohedge illustrates the extent to which stock buybacks are currently driving the market:

S&P 500 buybacks

Buybacks dwarf the $18 billion year-to-date inflow from ETF investors into US equities. The blackout period is likely to cause weakness.

10-Year Treasury yields also breached support at 2.60%, warning of a further decline in long-term interest rates. A sign of increased risk aversion.

10-Year Treasury Yields

Volatility on the S&P 500 has declined close to 1% but an upsurge in the next few weeks would warn of elevated risk. Breach of 2600 would indicate another test of primary support at 2350/2400.

S&P 500 & Twiggs Volatility

We extend our sympathies to the victims of the shooting in Christchurch and their families. Our hope is that this atrocity will draw people together in support of each other rather than divide them.

It has often been said that power corrupts. But it is perhaps equally important to realize that weakness, too, corrupts. Power corrupts the few, while weakness corrupts the many. Hatred, malice, rudeness, intolerance, and suspicion are the faults of weakness. The resentment of the weak does not spring from any injustice done to them but from their sense of inadequacy and impotence….
~ Eric Hoffer

S&P 500 optimism fades

10-Year Treasury yields are testing support at 2.60%. Breach of support would warn of a further decline in long-term interest rates. Declining yields reflect the outflow of funds from stocks and into safer fixed-interest investments.

10-Year Treasury Yields

Volatility on the S&P 500 has fallen close to 1% but a correction from here would be likely to form a trough above the 1% level, warning of elevated risk. Breach of 2600 would indicate another test of primary support at 2350/2400.

S&P 500 & Twiggs Volatility

Average hourly wages, total private, grew at 3.4% over the last 12 months, while production & non-supervisory wages grew at 3.48%. This keeps pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates as underlying inflationary pressures grow. The dampening effect of the trade dispute with China may have bought the Fed more time but a spike above 3.5% would be difficult to ignore.

Average Hourly Wages Growth

Impact of the trade dispute is more clearly visible on the chart below, with growth in total hours worked retreating below 1.5%. Slowing growth in hours worked warns that real GDP growth for Q1 2019 is likely to disappoint.

Real GDP and Hours Worked

China Trade Talks

US-China trade talks have made little in the way of real progress.

BEIJING—The U.S. and China have yet to set a date for a summit to resolve their trade dispute, the U.S. ambassador to China said Friday, as neither side feels an agreement is imminent. (Wall St Journal)

There is opposition to concessions on both sides:

China has a secret program to support the microchip and software industries. That’s according to Wang Jiangping, Vice Minister of Industry and Information Technology. Wang was speaking to CPPCC delegates at the Two sessions on Thursday, but the comments leaked to reporters (FX678):

“Last year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology planned the ‘Zhengxin Zhuhun’ project under the leadership of the Party Central Committee and the State Council.”
“The state will give strong policy and funding support, because industries such as microchips and software need to be iteratively developed.”

Wang said the ministry had kept the policy under wraps. That’s presumably because of the recent international backlash to the Made in China 2025 program…..Wang’s comments have already disappeared from the Chinese internet.

Get smart: Given Xi’s self-reliance push in key technologies, nobody really thought China would give up its industrial policies for these sectors. (Trivium China)

Whoever leaked Wang’s comments was not trying to make trade negotiations any easier. Impact of the trade dispute is starting to emerge in both economies but resolution and enforcement of a trade agreement is a long and tenuous path.

Hope is an expensive commodity. It makes better sense to be prepared.

~ Thucydides (460 – 400 B.C.)

GDP up but ETF flows bearish

Real US GDP grew a healthy 3.1% in Q4 2018. Rising hours worked point to further gains in the new year.

Real GDP and Hours Worked

10-Year Treasury yields rallied slightly but only breakout above 2.80% would hint at a reversal in the down-trend, while breach of 2.60% would warn of further weakness. Inflows into Treasuries normally coincide with outflows from stocks, indicating a bearish outlook.

10-Year Treasury Yield

According to etf.com, US equities have seen $21.2 billion of ETF outflows YTD, while fixed income recorded $16.5 billion of inflows. The market remains risk-averse.

The S&P 500 continues to test resistance at 2800. Bearish divergence on 13-week Momentum (below) often precedes a market top. Another lower peak would reinforce the signal.

S&P 500 & Twiggs Momentum

A correction in March is likely, possibly on conclusion of US trade talks with China. Breach of 2600 would signal another test of primary support at 2350/2400.

“President Donald Trump said on Monday that he may soon sign a deal with Chinese leader Xi Jinping to end the countries’ trade war, if the two sides can bridge remaining differences.

But the lead U.S. negotiator said on Wednesday it was too early to predict the outcome. U.S. issues with China are ‘too serious’ to be resolved with promises from Beijing to purchase more U.S. goods and any agreement must include a way to ensure commitments are met, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said.” (Reuters)

We are in a bear market that is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. The strength of the next correction will confirm or refute this.

Right, as the world goes, is only in question between equals in power, while the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.

~ Thucydides (460 – 400 B.C.)